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Acharya, T.; Fanzo, J.; Gustafson, D.; Ingram, J.; Schneeman, B.; Allen, L.; Boote, K.; Drewnowski, A.; Ewert, F.; Hall, S.; Hendley, P.; Howden, M.; Janssen, S.; Jones, J.; Latulippe, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; McDermott, J.; Meijl, H.V.; Nelson, G.; Newsome, R.; Roulin, A.; Scholes, B.; Tanumihardjo, S.; Tavill, G.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Wiebe, K. |
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Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security: The Role of Food Systems: Working Paper |
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2014 |
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Washington, D.C., U.S.A. |
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ILSI Research Foundation: Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition Security |
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4995 |
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Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Otto, I.; Brinckmann, N.; Bodirsky, B.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
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The Impact of Climate Change on Costs of Food and People Exposed to Hunger at Subnational Scale |
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2015 |
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PIK Report |
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128 |
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73 |
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Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%. |
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Potsdam |
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Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung |
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Leogrande, R.; Lopedota, O.; Vitti, C.; Ventrella, D.; Montemurro, F. |
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Saline water and municipal solid waste compost application on tomato crop: Effects on plant and soil |
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2016 |
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Journal of Plant Nutrition |
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39 |
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4 |
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491-501 |
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A field experiment was conducted in Southern Italy to evaluate the effects of different water quality and fertilizers on yield performance of tomato crop. In mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizer and irrigation with fresh water (Electrical Conductivity, EC, = 0.9 dS m⁻¹) (FWF); mineral N fertilizer and irrigation with saline water (EC = 6.0 dS m⁻¹) (SWF); municipal solid waste (MSW) compost and irrigation with fresh water (EC = 0.9 dS m⁻¹) (FWC); MSW compost and irrigation with saline water (EC = 6.0 dS m⁻¹) (SWC). At harvest, weight and number of fruits and refractometric index (°Brix) were measured, total and marketable yield and dry matter of fruit were calculated. The results indicated that MSW compost, applied as amendment, could substitute the mineral fertilizer. In fact, in the treatments based on compost application, the tomato average marketable yield increased by 9% compared with treatments with mineral fertilizer. The marketable yield in the SWF and SWC treatments (with an average soil EC in two years to about 3.5 dS m⁻¹) decreased respectively of 20 and 10%, in respect to fresh water treatments. At the end of the experiment, application of compost significantly decreased the sodium absorption rate (SAR) of SWC treatment in respect of SWF (−29.9%). Significant differences were observed among the four treatments both on soil solution cations either exchangeable cations. In particular compost application increased the calcium (Ca) and potassium (K) contents in saturated soil paste respect to the SWF ones (31.4% and 59.5%, respectively). At the same time saturated soil paste sodium (Na) in SWC treatment recorded a decrease of 17.4% compared to SWF. |
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4991 |
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Mínguez, M.I. |
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Agriculture in Spain and the climate change issue |
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2016 |
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Watch Letter |
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Watch Lett. |
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37 |
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Climate change awareness is pushing research and innovation in agriculture. Studies are booming on phenology and heat stress physiology – in parallel with improvement of their simulation in crop models- water use, irrigation requirements and improvement – be it deficit, strategic or precision irrigation-, cereal grain quality, and pest and disease evolution; large international and European research projects are working on these and mapping new areas for cultivation or species/cultivar changes. |
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International Center for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies CIHEAM |
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4881 |
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Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Schmitz, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Weindl, I. |
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The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare |
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2016 |
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Science Advances |
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Sci. Adv. |
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2 |
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8 |
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e1501452 |
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Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. |
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5003 |
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