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Author  |
Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
69-80 |
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Keywords |
integrated assessment; data envelopment analysis; farm adaptation; farm model; technical efficiency; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; european-community; future; crop; efficiency; impacts; systems |
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Abstract |
Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current “best” practices and explore future adaptation strategies at farm level. The objective of this article is to assess the impact of different climate change and socio-economic scenarios on arable farming systems in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and to explore possible adaptation strategies. Data Envelopment Analysis was used to identify these current “best” practices while bio-economic modelling was used to calculate a number of important economic and environmental indicators in scenarios for 2050. Relative differences between yields with and without climate change and technological change were simulated with a crop bio-physical model and used as a correction factors for the observed crop yields of current “best” practices. We demonstrated the capacity of the proposed methodology to explore multiple scenarios by analysing the importance of drivers of change, while accounting for variation between individual farms. It was found that farmers in Flevoland are in general technically efficient and a substantial share of the arable land is currently under profit maximization. We found that climate change increased productivity in all tested scenarios. However, the effects of different socio-economic scenarios (globalized and regionalized economies) on the economic and environmental performance of the farms were variable. Scenarios of a globalized economy where the prices of outputs were simulated to increase substantially might result in increased average gross margin and lower average (per ha) applications of crop protection and fertilizers. However, the effects might differ between different farm types. It was found that, the abolishment of sugar beet quota and changes of future prices of agricultural inputs and outputs in such socio-economic scenario (i.e. globalized economy) caused a decrease in gross margins of smaller (in terms of economic size) farms, while gross margin of larger farms increased. In scenarios where more regionalized economies and a moderate climate change are assumed, the future price ratios between inputs and outputs are shown to be the key factors for the viability of arable farms in our simulations. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4526 |
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Author |
Katajajuuri, J.-M.; Pulkkinen, H.; Hietala, S.; Järvenranta, K.; Virkajärvi, P.; Nousiainen, J.I.; Huuskonen, A. |
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Title |
A holistic, dynamic model to quantify and mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle farming |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
35-36 |
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Keywords |
GHG mitigation; LCA; livestock; dynamic farm model |
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English |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4680 |
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Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Vosough Ahmadi, B.; Stott, A.W. |
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Title |
Impact of subclinical mastitis on greenhouse gas emissions intensity and profitability of dairy cows in Norway |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Preventive Veterinary Medicine |
Abbreviated Journal |
Preventive Veterinary Medicine |
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150 |
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Pages |
19-29 |
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Keywords |
Dairy cow; Dynamic programming; Greenhouse gas emissions intensity; Profitability; Subclinical mastitis; Whole farm modelling |
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Abstract |
Impaired animal health causes both productivity and profitability losses on dairy farms, resulting in inefficient use of inputs and increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced per unit of product (i.e. emissions intensity). Here, we used subclinical mastitis as an exemplar to benchmark alternative scenarios against an economic optimum and adjusted herd structure to estimate the GHG emissions intensity associated with varying levels of disease. Five levels of somatic cell count (SCC) classes were considered namely 50,000 (i.e. SCC50), 200,000, 400,000, 600,000 and 800,000 cells/mL (milliliter) of milk. The effects of varying levels of SCC on milk yield reduction and consequential milk price penalties were used in a dynamic programming (DP) model that maximizes the profit per cow, represented as expected net present value, by choosing optimal animal replacement rates. The GHG emissions intensities associated with different levels of SCC were then computed using a farm-scale model (HolosNor). The total culling rates of both primiparous (PP) and multiparous (MP) cows for the five levels of SCC scenarios estimated by the model varied from a minimum of 30.9% to a maximum of 43.7%. The expected profit was the highest for cows with SCC200 due to declining margin over feed, which influenced the DP model to cull and replace more animals and generate higher profit under this scenario compared to SCC50. The GHG emission intensities for the PP and MP cows with SCC50 were 1.01 kg (kilogram) and 0.95 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per kg fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM), respectively, with the lowest emissions being achieved in SCC50. Our results show that there is a potential to reduce the farm GHG emissions intensity by 3.7% if the milk production was improved through reducing the level of SCC to 50,000 cells/mL in relation to SCC level 800,000 cells/mL. It was concluded that preventing and/or controlling subclinical mastitis consequently reduces the GHG emissions per unit of product on farm that results in improved profits for the farmers through reductions in milk losses, optimum culling rate and reduced feed and other variable costs. We suggest that further studies exploring the impact of a combination of diseases on emissions intensity are warranted. |
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ISSN |
0167-5877 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5181 |
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Author |
Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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Keywords |
climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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2016-10-31 |
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English |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4800 |
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Author |
Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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Keywords |
climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Abstract |
Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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English |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1748-9326 |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4649 |
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