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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3463-3476 |
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Keywords |
Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design |
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Abstract |
A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4804 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
71 |
Issue |
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Pages |
44-52 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; crop production; cultivars; extreme climate; impacts; phenology; high-temperature stress; climate-change; winter-wheat; spring wheat; crop yields; day length; trends; variability; senescence; phenology |
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Abstract |
Heat stress impacts on crop growth and yield have been investigated by controlled-environment experiments, however little is known about the impacts under field conditions at large spatial and temporal scales, particularly in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. Here, using detailed experiment Observations at 34 national agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China, we investigated the changes in climate and heat stress during wheat reproductive growing period (from heading to maturity) and the impacts of climate change and heat stress on reproductive growing duration (RGD) and yield in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. We found that RGD and growing degree days above 0 degrees C (GDD) from heading to maturity increased, which increased yield by similar to 14.85%, although heat stress had negative impacts on RGD and yield. During 1981-2009, high temperature (>34 degrees C) degree days (HDD) increased in the northern part, however decreased in the middle and southern parts of HHHP due to advances in heading and maturity dates. Change in HDD, together with increase in GDD and decrease in solar radiation (SRD), jointly increased wheat yield in the northern and middle parts but reduced it in the southern part of HHHP. During the study period, increase in GDD and decrease in SRD had larger impacts on yield than change in HDD. However, with climate warming of 2 degrees C, damage of heat stress on yield may offset a large portion of the benefits from increases in RGD and GDD, and eventually result in net negative impacts on yield in the northern part of HHHP. Our study showed that shifts in cultivars and wheat production system dynamics in the past three decades reduced heat stress impacts in the HHHP. The insights into crop response and adaptation to climate change and climate extremes provide excellent evidences and basis for improving climate change impact study and designing adaptation measures for the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-06-01 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4743 |
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Author |
van Bussel, L.G.J.; Stehfest, E.; Siebert, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. |
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24 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1018-1029 |
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Keywords |
Agricultural management; crop calendars; cultivar; variety characteristics; global crop modelling; global harvest dates; phenology; climate-change; winter-wheat; annual crops; photoperiod sensitivity; geographical variation; temperature; responses; adaptation; cultivars; model |
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Abstract |
AimTo derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. LocationGlobal. Methods Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties |
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1466-822x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4729 |
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Author |
Conradt, T.; Gornott, C.; Wechsung, F. |
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Title |
Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
68-81 |
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Keywords |
cluster analysis; crop yield estimation; germany; multivariate regression; silage maize; winter wheat; climate-change; canadian prairies; crop yield; temperature; responses; environments; variability; cultivar; china |
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Abstract |
Regional agricultural yield assessments allowing for weather effect quantifications are a valuable basis for deriving scenarios of climate change effects and developing adaptation strategies. Assessing weather effects by statistical methods is a classical approach, but for obtaining robust results many details deserve attention and require individual decisions as is demonstrated in this paper. We evaluated regression models for annual yield changes of winter wheat and silage maize in more than 300 German counties and revised them to increase their predictive power. A major effort of this study was, however, aggregating separately estimated time series models (STSM) into panel data models (PDM) based on cluster analyses. The cluster analyses were based on the per-county estimates of STSM parameters. The original STSM formulations (adopted from a parallel study) contained also the non-meteorological input variables acreage and fertilizer price. The models were revised to use only weather variables as estimation basis. These consisted of time aggregates of radiation, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. Altering the input variables generally increased the predictive power of the models as did their clustering into PDM. For each crop, five alternative clusterings were produced by three different methods, and similarities between their spatial structures seem to confirm the existence of objective clusters about common model parameters. Observed smooth transitions of STSM parameter values in space suggest, however, spatial autocorrelation effects that could also be modeled explicitly. Both clustering and autocorrelation approaches can effectively reduce the noise in parameter estimation through targeted aggregation of input data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4709 |
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Author |
Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Tao, F.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Effects of climate and historical adaptation measures on barley yield trends in Finland |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
221-236 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; climate; crop simulation modelling; plant breeding; spring barley; yield gap; crop production; spring barley; quantitative-evaluation; european conditions; cereal cultivars; growing-season; use efficiency; field crops; wheat; northern |
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In this study, the WOFOST crop simulation model was used together with comprehensive empirical databases on barley Hordeum vulgare L. to study the contributions of different yield-determining and -limiting factors to observed trends of barley yield in Finland from 1988 to 2008. Simulations were performed at 3 study sites representing different agro-ecological zones, and compared with the data from experimental sites and that reported by local farmers. Yield gaps between simulated potential yields and farmers’ yields and their trends were assessed. Positive observed yield trends of Finnish barley mostly resulted from the development and usage of new, high-yielding cultivars. Simulated trends in climatic potential and water-limited potential yields of individual cultivars showed a slight declining trend. Yield gaps showed an increasing trend in 2 out of 3 study areas. Since the mid-1990s, a major reason for this has been the lack of market and policy incentives favouring crop management decisions, i.e. annual fertilisation, soil maintenance, drainage and crop rotation decisions, aiming for higher yields. The study indicates potential options for increasing or maintaining barley yields in the future. The breeding of new climate-resilient cultivars is the primary option. However, this needs to work alongside overall adjustments to farm management and must be supported by financial incentives for farmers to increase yields. |
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0936-577x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4700 |
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