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Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Tao, F.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Effects of climate and historical adaptation measures on barley yield trends in Finland |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
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Pages |
221-236 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; climate; crop simulation modelling; plant breeding; spring barley; yield gap; crop production; spring barley; quantitative-evaluation; european conditions; cereal cultivars; growing-season; use efficiency; field crops; wheat; northern |
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Abstract |
In this study, the WOFOST crop simulation model was used together with comprehensive empirical databases on barley Hordeum vulgare L. to study the contributions of different yield-determining and -limiting factors to observed trends of barley yield in Finland from 1988 to 2008. Simulations were performed at 3 study sites representing different agro-ecological zones, and compared with the data from experimental sites and that reported by local farmers. Yield gaps between simulated potential yields and farmers’ yields and their trends were assessed. Positive observed yield trends of Finnish barley mostly resulted from the development and usage of new, high-yielding cultivars. Simulated trends in climatic potential and water-limited potential yields of individual cultivars showed a slight declining trend. Yield gaps showed an increasing trend in 2 out of 3 study areas. Since the mid-1990s, a major reason for this has been the lack of market and policy incentives favouring crop management decisions, i.e. annual fertilisation, soil maintenance, drainage and crop rotation decisions, aiming for higher yields. The study indicates potential options for increasing or maintaining barley yields in the future. The breeding of new climate-resilient cultivars is the primary option. However, this needs to work alongside overall adjustments to farm management and must be supported by financial incentives for farmers to increase yields. |
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0936-577x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4700 |
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Author |
Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A. |
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Title |
Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
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Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
156-176 |
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Keywords |
land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region |
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Abstract |
An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability. |
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0002-1121 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4652 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Sławiński, C.; Baranowski, P.; Żarski, W. |
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Title |
Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Acta Agrophysica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agrophysica |
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21 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
415-431 |
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Keywords |
agricultural economics; agriculture; climate change; crop production; integrating assessments |
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The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce. |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4619 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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3 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
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Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
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Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4599 |
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Author |
Hakala, K.; Jauhiainen, L.; Himanen, S.J.; RÖTter, R.; Salo, T.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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150 |
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02 |
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145-160 |
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climate-change; winter-wheat; spring wheat; reproductive growth; high-temperatures; changing climate; crop production; increased CO2; yield; tolerance |
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Global climate change is predicted to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. An increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and prolonged droughts is predicted, but there are high levels of uncertainty about the nature of local changes. Crop adaptation will be important in reducing potential damage to agriculture. Crop diversity may enhance resilience to climate variability and changes that are difficult to predict. Therefore, there has to be sufficient diversity within the set of available cultivars in response to weather parameters critical for yield formation. To determine the scale of such ‘weather response diversity’ within barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), an important crop in northern conditions, the yield responses of a wide range of modern and historical varieties were analysed according to a well-defined set of critical agro-meteorological variables. The Finnish long-term dataset of MTT Official Variety Trials was used together with historical weather records of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The foci of the analysis were firstly to describe the general response of barley to different weather conditions and secondly to reveal the diversity among varieties in the sensitivity to each weather variable. It was established that barley yields were frequently reduced by drought or excessive rain early in the season, by high temperatures at around heading, and by accelerated temperature sum accumulation rates during periods 2 weeks before heading and between heading and yellow ripeness. Low temperatures early in the season increased yields, but frost during the first 4 weeks after sowing had no effect. After canopy establishment, higher precipitation on average resulted in higher yields. In a cultivar-specific analysis, it was found that there were differences in responses to all but three of the studied climatic variables: waterlogging and drought early in the season and temperature sum accumulation rate before heading. The results suggest that low temperatures early in the season, delayed sowing, rain 3-7 weeks after sowing, a temperature change 3-4 weeks after sowing, a high temperature sum accumulation rate from heading to yellow ripeness and high temperatures (25 degrees C) at around heading could mostly be addressed by exploiting the traits found in the range of varieties included in the present study. However, new technology and novel genetic material are needed to enable crops to withstand periods of excessive rain or drought early in the season and to enhance performance under increased temperature sum accumulation rates prior to heading. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4586 |
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