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Luo, K.; Tao, F.; Moiwo, J.P.; Xiao, D. |
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Title  |
Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Scientific Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
Scientific Reports |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
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Pages |
33704 |
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Keywords |
water-resources; groundwater recharge; stream-flow; surface-energy; china; runoff; impact; evapotranspiration; cover; availability; Science & Technology – Other Topics |
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Abstract |
The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. |
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2016-10-18 |
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ISSN |
2045-2322 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4668 |
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Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Gerten, D.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bodirsky, B.; Biewald, A.; Popp, A. |
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Title |
Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Research |
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Volume |
49 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
3601-3617 |
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Keywords |
water scarcity; land use model; irrigation efficiency; trade liberalization; livestock consumption; modeling; land cover change; water budgets |
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Abstract |
An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005. |
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0043-1397 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4502 |
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Dass, P.; Müller, C.; Brovkin, V.; Cramer, W. |
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Title |
Can bioenergy cropping compensate high carbon emissions from large-scale deforestation of high latitudes |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Earth System Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth System Dynamics |
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4 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
409-424 |
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Keywords |
land-use change; global vegetation model; soil carbon; climate-change; surface albedo; cover changes; snow cover; remind-r; forest; productivity |
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Abstract |
Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of the high latitudes result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance, however, may be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response, as carbon emissions are typically at or below the lower end of estimates. Here, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL for a better estimate of the carbon cycle under such large-scale deforestation. These studies are purely theoretical in order to understand the role of vegetation in the energy balance and the earth system. They must not be mistaken as possible mitigation options, because of the devastating effects on pristine ecosystems. For realistic assumptions of land suitability, the total emissions computed in this study are higher than that of previous studies assessing the effects of boreal deforestation. The warming due to biogeochemical effects ranges from 0.12 to 0.32 degrees C, depending on the climate sensitivity. Using LPJmL to assess the mitigation potential of bioenergy plantations in the suitable areas of the deforested region, we find that the global biophysical bioenergy potential is 68.1 +/- 5.6 EJ yr(-1) of primary energy at the end of the 21st century in the most plausible scenario. The avoided combustion of fossil fuels over the time frame of this experiment would lead to further cooling. However, since the carbon debt caused by the cumulative emissions is not repaid by the end of the 21st century, the global temperatures would increase by 0.04 to 0.11 degrees C. The carbon dynamics in the high latitudes especially with respect to permafrost dynamics and long-term carbon losses, require additional attention in the role for the Earth’s carbon and energy budget. |
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ISSN |
2190-4987 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4486 |
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Sanz-Cobena, A.; García-Marco, S.; Quemada, M.; Gabriel, J.L.; Almendros, P.; Vallejo, A. |
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Title |
Do cover crops enhance N2O, CO2 or CH4 emissions from soil in Mediterranean arable systems? |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Science of the Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of the Total Environment |
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466-467 |
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164-174 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods; Air Pollutants/*metabolism; Brassica napus/growth & development/metabolism; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/*metabolism; Gases/metabolism; Greenhouse Effect; Hordeum/growth & development/metabolism; Manure/*analysis; Nitrogen/metabolism; Nitrogen Dioxide/metabolism; Spain; Vicia/growth & development/metabolism; Zea mays/growth & development; Cover crops; GHG emissions; Green manure; Irrigation; Maize |
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This study evaluates the effect of planting three cover crops (CCs) (barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; vetch, Vicia villosa L.; rape, Brassica napus L.) on the direct emission of N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4) in the intercrop period and the impact of incorporating these CCs on the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from the forthcoming irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) crop. Vetch and barley were the CCs with the highest N(2)O and CO(2) losses (75 and 47% increase compared with the control, respectively) in the fallow period. In all cases, fluxes of N(2)O were increased through N fertilization and the incorporation of barley and rape residues (40 and 17% increase, respectively). The combination of a high C:N ratio with the addition of an external source of mineral N increased the fluxes of N(2)O compared with -Ba and -Rp. The direct emissions of N(2)O were lower than expected for a fertilized crop (0.10% emission factor, EF) compared with other studies and the IPCC EF. These results are believed to be associated with a decreased NO(3)(-) pool due to highly denitrifying conditions and increased drainage. The fluxes of CO(2) were in the range of other fertilized crops (i.e., 1118.71-1736.52 kg CO(2)-Cha(-1)). The incorporation of CC residues enhanced soil respiration in the range of 21-28% for barley and rape although no significant differences between treatments were detected. Negative CH(4) fluxes were measured and displayed an overall sink effect for all incorporated CC (mean values of -0.12 and -0.10 kg CH(4)-Cha(-1) for plots with and without incorporated CCs, respectively). |
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ISSN |
0048-9697 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4639 |
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Author |
Jabloun, M.; Schelde, K.; Tao, F.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Effect of temperature and precipitation on nitrate leaching from organic cereal cropping systems in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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62 |
Issue |
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55-64 |
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Keywords |
nitrogen; leaching; organic farming; wheat; barley; climate-change; catch crops; nitrogen mineralization; winter-wheat; arable crop; european agriculture; farming systems; spring barley; cover crops; soil |
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The effect of variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation on soil water nitrate (NO3-N) concentration and leaching from winter and spring cereals cropping systems was investigated over three consecutive four-year crop rotation cycles from 1997 to 2008 in an organic farming crop rotation experiment in Denmark. Three experimental sites, varying in climate and soil type from coarse sand to sandy loam, were investigated. The experiment included experimental treatments with different rotations, manure rate and cover crop, and soil nitrate concentrations was monitored using suction cups. The effects of climate, soil and management were examined in a linear mixed model, and only parameters with significant effect (P < 0.05) were included in the final model. The model explained 61% and 47% of the variation in the square root transform of flow-weighted annual NO3-N concentration for winter and spring cereals, respectively, and 68% and 77% of the variation in the square root transform of annual NO3-N leaching for winter and spring cereals, respectively. Nitrate concentration and leaching were shown to be site specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. There were significant effects on annual N concentration and NO3-N leaching of location, rotation, previous crop and crop cover during autumn and winter. The relative effects of temperature and precipitation differed between seasons and cropping systems. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted N concentration and leaching increased with increases in temperature and precipitation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4562 |
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