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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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Volume |
3 |
Issue  |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
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Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
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Abstract |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4599 |
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Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
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Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
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5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
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Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
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Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
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2020-02-14 |
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2375-2548 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5227 |
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Author |
Schmitz, C.; Kreidenweis, U.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Krause, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C. |
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Title |
Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
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15 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
1757-1772 |
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Keywords |
Land-use change; Trade liberalisation; Tropical deforestation; Forest; protection; Agricultural productivity growth; land-use; brazilian amazon; co2 concentrations; carbon emissions; conservation; climate; mitigation; forests; impact; growth; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
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The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5-10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20-40 Gt additional emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1436-3798 1436-378x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4810 |
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Francioni, M.; D’Ottavio, P.; Lai, R.; Trozzo, L.; Budimir, K.; Foresi, L.; Kishimoto-Mo, A.W.; Baldoni, N.; Allegrezza, M.; Tesei, G.; Toderi, M. |
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Title |
Seasonal Soil Respiration Dynamics and Carbon-Stock Variations in Mountain Permanent Grasslands Compared to Arable Lands |
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Journal Article |
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2019 |
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Agriculture-Basel |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agriculture-Basel |
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9 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
165 |
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Keywords |
ecosystem services; C stock; CO2; GHG; land use change; Q(10); temperature; vegetation; patterns; emissions; climate |
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Permanent grasslands provide a wide array of ecosystem services. Despite this, few studies have investigated grassland carbon (C) dynamics, and especially those related to the effects of land-use changes. This study aimed to determine whether the land-use change from permanent grassland to arable lands resulted in variations in the soil C stock, and whether such variations were due to increased soil respiration or to management practices. To address this, seasonal variations of soil respiration, sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature (Q(10)), and soil C stock variations generated by land-use changes were analyzed in a temperate mountain area of central Italy. The comparisons were performed for a permanent grassland and two adjacent fields, one cultivated with lentil and the other with emmer, during the 2015 crop year. Soil respiration and its heterotrophic component showed different spatial and temporal dynamics. Annual cumulative soil respiration rates were 6.05, 5.05 and 3.99 t C ha(-1) year(-1) for grassland, lentil and emmer, respectively. Both soil respiration and heterotrophic soil respiration were positively correlated with soil temperature at 10 cm depth. Derived Q(10) values were from 2.23 to 6.05 for soil respiration, and from 1.82 to 4.06 for heterotrophic respiration. Soil C stock at over 0.2 m in depth was 93.56, 48.74 and 46.80 t C ha(-1) for grassland, lentil and emmer, respectively. The land-use changes from permanent grassland to arable land lead to depletion in terms of the soil C stock due to water soil erosion. A more general evaluation appears necessary to determine the multiple effects of this land-use change at the landscape scale. |
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2020-02-14 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5229 |
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Author |
Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Levermann, A. |
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Title |
Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
540-541 |
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Keywords |
elevated CO2; human-nutrition; climate-change; carbon; face |
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Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food. |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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Editorial Material |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4537 |
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