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Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.H.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Cammarano, D.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Schulman, A.H. |
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Title |
Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble |
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Journal Article |
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Year  |
2017 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Europ. J. Agron. |
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Volume |
82 |
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144-162 |
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Keywords |
Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Nitrogen Dynamics; Systems; Simulation; Wheat Cultivars; Grain Weight; Yield; Growth; Fertilization; Adaptation; Adaptation; Breeding; Climate change; Crop simulation models; Impact; Genotype; Genetic traits |
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Climate change and its associated higher frequency and severity of adverse weather events require genotypic adaptation. Process-based ecophysiological modelling offers a powerful means to better target and accelerate development of new crop cultivars. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L) is an important crop throughout the world, and a good model for study of the genetics of stress adaptation because many quantitative trait loci and candidate genes for biotic and abiotic stress tolerance have been identified in it. Here, we developed a new approach to design future crop ideotypes using an ensemble of eight barley simulation models (i.e. APSIM, CropSyst, HERMES, MCWLA, MONICA, SIMPLACE, Sirius Quality, and WOFOST), and applied it to design climate-resilient barley ideotypes for Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones in Europe. The results showed that specific barley genotypes, represented by sets of cultivar parameters in the crop models, could be promising under future climate change conditions, resulting in increased yields and low inter-annual yield variability. In contrast, other genotypes could result in substantial yield declines. The most favorable climate-zone-specific barley ideotypes were further proposed, having combinations of several key genetic traits in terms of phenology, leaf growth, photosynthesis, drought tolerance, and grain formation. For both Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones, barley ideotypes under future climatic conditions should have a longer reproductive growing period, lower leaf senescence rate, larger radiation use efficiency or maximum assimilation rate, and higher drought tolerance. Such characteristics can produce substantial positive impacts on yields under contrasting conditions. Moreover, barley ideotypes should have a low photoperiod and high vernalization sensitivity for the Boreal climatic zone; for the Mediterranean, in contrast, it should have a low photoperiod and low vernalization sensitivity. The drought-tolerance trait is more beneficial for the Mediterranean than for the Boreal climatic zone. Our study demonstrates a sound approach to design future barley ideotypes based on an ensemble of well-tested, diverse crop models and on integration of knowledge from multiple disciplines. The robustness of model-aided ideotypes design can be further enhanced by continuously improving crop models and enhancing information exchange between modellers, agro-meteorologists, geneticists, physiologists, and plant breeders. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2017-01-20 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_MACSUR |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4935 |
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Author |
Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D. |
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Title |
Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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Volume |
151 |
Issue |
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Pages |
126-135 |
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Keywords |
Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture |
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Abstract |
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability. |
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2017-02-23 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4937 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Xiao, D.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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239 |
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1-14 |
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Agriculture, Climate change, Crop yield, Impact and adaptation, Heat stress, Phenology; Climate-Change; Winter-Wheat; North China; Triticum-Aestivum; Crop; Production; Grain-Growth; Impacts; Trends; Heat; Management |
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Our understanding of climate impacts and adaptations on crop growth and productivity can be accelerated by analyzing historical data over the past few decades. We used crop trial and climate data from 1981 to 2009 at 34 national agro-meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China to investigate the impacts of climate factors during different growth stages on the growth and yields of winter wheat, accounting for the adaptations such as shifts in sowing dates, cultivars, and agronomic management. Maximum (T-max) and minimum temperature (T-min) during the growth period of winter wheat increased significantly, by 0.4 and 0.6 degrees C/decade, respectively, from 1981 to 2009, while solar radiation decreased significantly by 0.2 MJ/m(2)/day and precipitation did not change significantly. The trends in climate shifted wheat phenology significantly at 21 stations and affected wheat yields significantly at five stations. The impacts of T-max and T-min differed in different growth stages of winter wheat. Across the stations, during 1981-2009, wheat yields increased on average by 14.5% with increasing trends in T-min over the whole growth period, which reduced frost damage, however, decreased by 3.0% with the decreasing trends in solar radiation. Trends in Tmax and precipitation had comparatively smaller impacts on wheat yields. From 1981 to 2009, climate trends were associated with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) wheat yield increase at 23 stations in eastern and southern parts of HHHP; however with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) reduction at 11 other stations, mainly in western part of HHHP. We also found that wheat reproductive growth duration increased due to shifts in cultivars and flowering date, and the duration was significantly and positively correlated with wheat yield. This study highlights the different impacts of T-max and T-min in different growth stages of winter wheat, as well as the importance of management (e.g. shift of sowing date) and cultivars shift in adapting to climate change in the major wheat production region. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2017-06-12 |
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0168-1923 |
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article |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4962 |
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Rusu, T.; Coste, C.L.; Moraru, P.I.; Szajdak, L.W.; Pop, A.I.; Duda, B.M. |
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Title |
Impact of climate change on agro-climatic indicators and agricultural lands in the Transylvanian Plain between 2008-2014 |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences |
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12 |
Issue |
1 |
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23-34 |
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Keywords |
climate change; adaptation technologies; Transylvanian Plain |
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Integrated conservation and management of agricultural areas affected by the current global warming represents a priority at international level following the implementation of the principles of sustainable agriculture and adaptation measures. Transylvanian Plain (TP), with an area of 395,616 ha is of great agricultural importance for Romania, but with an afforestation degree of only 6.8% and numerous degradation phenomena of farmland, it has the lowest degree of sustainability to climate change. Monitoring of agro-climatic indicators and their evolution in between 2008-2014 and the analysis of the obtained data underlie the technological development of recommendations tailored to current favorable conditions for the main crops. Results obtained show that: the thermal regime of the soils in TP is of mesic type and the hydric regime is ustic; multiannual average of temperature in soil at 10 cm depth is 11.40ºC, respectively at 50 cm depth is 10.24ºC; the average yearly air temperature is 11.17ºC; multiannual average of soil moisture is 0.227 m3/m3; Multiannual average value of precipitation is 466.52 mm. During the studied period, compared with data series available (1961-1990; 1901-2000), clear decrease of the average quantities of rainfall especially during critical periods for crops, and increases in average temperatures for the entire year can be noticed. Between June and August the highest temperature difference were recorded, differences of +3.09°C to +3.65°C. There is an increase phenomenon of drought and heat; determined indicators show that most values, 61.11%, are commensurate with a semiarid climate. Aggression peaks are in February-April, July, and October-November, and for the whole period, in 19.43% of the cases are favorable and very favorable conditions for triggering erosion. Recommended agro-technical measures to limit and counteract the effects of drought, as a climatic phenomenon with major risk to agriculture in TP, refer to: i) use of a biological material resistant to water stress and heat; ii) use of management practices favorable for accumulation of, conservation and the efficient use of water from rainfall; iii) operating a system of conservation agriculture based on soil protection and desertification avoidance. |
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1842-4090; 1844-489x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4984 |
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Author |
Mittenzwei, K.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Kværnø, S. |
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Title |
Combined effects of climate change and policy uncertainty on the agricultural sector in Norway |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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153 |
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118-126 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Norway; Agriculture; Policy uncertainty; Modelling; LINGRA; CSM-CERES-Wheat; DSSAT |
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Highlights • A framework to study climate and policy uncertainty in agriculture is presented. • Combining both sources of uncertainty has ambiguous effects on agriculture. • Uncertainty needs to be highlighted in modelling tools for policy analysis. Abstract Farmers are exposed to climate change and uncertainty about how that change will develop. As farm incomes, in Norway and elsewhere, greatly depend on government subsidies, the risk of a policy change constitutes an additional uncertainty source. Hence, climate and policy uncertainty could substantially impact agricultural production and farm income. However, these sources of uncertainty have, so far, rarely been combined in food production analyses. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a combination of policy and climate uncertainty on agricultural production, land use, and social welfare in Norway. Output yield distributions of spring wheat and timothy, a major forage grass, from simulations with the weather-driven crop models, CSM-CERES-Wheat and, LINGRA, were processed in the a stochastic version Jordmod, a price-endogenous spatial economic sector model of the Norwegian agriculture. To account for potential effects of climate uncertainty within a given future greenhouse gas emission scenario on farm profitability, effects on conditions that represented the projected climate for 2050 under the emission scenario A1B from the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and four Global Climate Models (GCM) was investigated. The uncertainty about the level of payment rates at the time farmers make their management decisions was handled by varying the distribution of payment rates applied in the Jordmod model. These changes were based on the change in the overall level of agricultural support in the past. Three uncertainty scenarios were developed and tested: one with climate change uncertainty, another with payment rate uncertainty, and a third where both types of uncertainty were combined. The three scenarios were compared with results from a deterministic scenario where crop yields and payment rates were constant. Climate change resulted in on average 9% lower cereal production, unchanged grass production and more volatile crop yield as well as 4% higher farm incomes on average compared to the deterministic scenario. The scenario with a combination of climate change and policy uncertainty increased the mean farm income more than a scenario with only one source of uncertainty. On the other hand, land use and farm labour were negatively affected under these conditions compared to the deterministic case. Highlighting the potential influence of climate change and policy uncertainty on the performance of the farm sector our results underline the potential error in neglecting either of these two uncertainties in studies of agricultural production, land use and welfare. |
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0308521x |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4986 |
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