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Author |
Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume  |
264 |
Issue |
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Pages |
351-362 |
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Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections |
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Abstract |
unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures. |
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2019-01-07 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5214 |
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Author |
Mitter, H.; Techen, A.-K.; Sinabell, F.; Helming, K.; Kok, K.; Priess, J.A.; Schmid, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Holman, I.; Lehtonen, H.; Leip, A.; Le Mouel, C.; Mathijs, E.; Mehdi, B.; Michetti, M.; Mittenzwei, K.; Mora, O.; Oygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, R.; Schoenhart, M. |
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Title |
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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Volume |
252 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Unsp 109701 |
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Keywords |
EUR-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change; land-use change; global environmental-change; climate-change; scenario; development; transdisciplinary research; sustainability science; integrated-assessment; future; adaptation; framework |
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Abstract |
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS. |
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2020-02-14 |
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ISSN |
0301-4797 |
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Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5222 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Xiao, D.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
239 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-14 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture, Climate change, Crop yield, Impact and adaptation, Heat stress, Phenology; Climate-Change; Winter-Wheat; North China; Triticum-Aestivum; Crop; Production; Grain-Growth; Impacts; Trends; Heat; Management |
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Abstract |
Our understanding of climate impacts and adaptations on crop growth and productivity can be accelerated by analyzing historical data over the past few decades. We used crop trial and climate data from 1981 to 2009 at 34 national agro-meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China to investigate the impacts of climate factors during different growth stages on the growth and yields of winter wheat, accounting for the adaptations such as shifts in sowing dates, cultivars, and agronomic management. Maximum (T-max) and minimum temperature (T-min) during the growth period of winter wheat increased significantly, by 0.4 and 0.6 degrees C/decade, respectively, from 1981 to 2009, while solar radiation decreased significantly by 0.2 MJ/m(2)/day and precipitation did not change significantly. The trends in climate shifted wheat phenology significantly at 21 stations and affected wheat yields significantly at five stations. The impacts of T-max and T-min differed in different growth stages of winter wheat. Across the stations, during 1981-2009, wheat yields increased on average by 14.5% with increasing trends in T-min over the whole growth period, which reduced frost damage, however, decreased by 3.0% with the decreasing trends in solar radiation. Trends in Tmax and precipitation had comparatively smaller impacts on wheat yields. From 1981 to 2009, climate trends were associated with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) wheat yield increase at 23 stations in eastern and southern parts of HHHP; however with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) reduction at 11 other stations, mainly in western part of HHHP. We also found that wheat reproductive growth duration increased due to shifts in cultivars and flowering date, and the duration was significantly and positively correlated with wheat yield. This study highlights the different impacts of T-max and T-min in different growth stages of winter wheat, as well as the importance of management (e.g. shift of sowing date) and cultivars shift in adapting to climate change in the major wheat production region. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2017-06-12 |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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article |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4962 |
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Author |
Mäkinen, H.; Kaseva, J.; Trnka, M.; Balek, J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Gobin, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Takáč, J.; Bezák, P.; Ventrella, D.; Ruget, F.; Capellades, G.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
222 |
Issue |
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Pages |
209-217 |
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Keywords |
European wheat; Cultivar; Weather; Extreme; Climate change; Yield response; High-Temperature; Heat-Stress; Use Efficiency; Growth-Stages; Winter-Wheat; Yield; Crop; Barley; Tolerance |
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Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21 degrees to 61.34 degrees and longitudes- 6.02 degrees to 26.24 degrees) during the period 1991-2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (>= 31 degrees C, >= 35 degrees C, or drought around heading; >= 35 degrees C from heading to maturity; excessive rainfall; heavy rainfall and low global radiation) led to marked yield penalties in a selected set of European cultivars, whereas few cultivars were found to with no yield penalty in such conditions. There were no European wheat cultivars that responded positively (+ 10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (- 15 degrees C and – 20 degrees C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently, a major future breeding challenge will be to evaluate the potential of combining such cultivar properties with other properties required under different growing conditions with, for example, long day conditions at higher latitudes, when the intensity and frequency of extremes rapidly increase. |
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2018-06-05 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5200 |
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Author |
Webber, H.; White, J.W.; Kimball, B.A.; Ewert, F.; Asseng, S.; Rezaei, E.E.; Pinter, P.J., Jr.; Hatfield, J.L.; Reynolds, M.P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Doltra, J.; Ferrise, R.; Kage, H.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Luig, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Ratjen, A.M.; LaMorte, R.L.; Leavitt, S.W.; Hunsaker, D.J.; Wall, G.W.; Martre, P. |
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Title |
Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
75-88 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Crop model improvement; Heat and drought interactions; Climate change impact assessments; Canopy temperature; Wheat; Air CO2 Enrichment; Elevated Carbon-Dioxide; Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Wheat Evapotranspiration; Stomatal Conductance; Multimodel Ensembles; Farming Systems; Drought-Stress; Spring Wheat |
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Abstract |
Despite widespread application in studying climate change impacts, most crop models ignore complex interactions among air temperature, crop and soil water status, CO2 concentration and atmospheric conditions that influence crop canopy temperature. The current study extended previous studies by evaluating Tc simulations from nine crop models at six locations across environmental and production conditions. Each crop model implemented one of an empirical (EMP), an energy balance assuming neutral stability (EBN) or an energy balance correcting for atmospheric stability conditions (EBSC) approach to simulate Tc. Model performance in predicting Tc was evaluated for two experiments in continental North America with various water, nitrogen and CO2 treatments. An empirical model fit to one dataset had the best performance, followed by the EBSC models. Stability conditions explained much of the differences between modeling approaches. More accurate simulation of heat stress will likely require use of energy balance approaches that consider atmospheric stability conditions. |
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Address |
2018-02-19 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0378-4290 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5189 |
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