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Author |
Webber, H.; White, J.W.; Kimball, B.A.; Ewert, F.; Asseng, S.; Rezaei, E.E.; Pinter, P.J., Jr.; Hatfield, J.L.; Reynolds, M.P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Doltra, J.; Ferrise, R.; Kage, H.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Luig, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Ratjen, A.M.; LaMorte, R.L.; Leavitt, S.W.; Hunsaker, D.J.; Wall, G.W.; Martre, P. |
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Title |
Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
75-88 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Crop model improvement; Heat and drought interactions; Climate change impact assessments; Canopy temperature; Wheat; Air CO2 Enrichment; Elevated Carbon-Dioxide; Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Wheat Evapotranspiration; Stomatal Conductance; Multimodel Ensembles; Farming Systems; Drought-Stress; Spring Wheat |
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Abstract |
Despite widespread application in studying climate change impacts, most crop models ignore complex interactions among air temperature, crop and soil water status, CO2 concentration and atmospheric conditions that influence crop canopy temperature. The current study extended previous studies by evaluating Tc simulations from nine crop models at six locations across environmental and production conditions. Each crop model implemented one of an empirical (EMP), an energy balance assuming neutral stability (EBN) or an energy balance correcting for atmospheric stability conditions (EBSC) approach to simulate Tc. Model performance in predicting Tc was evaluated for two experiments in continental North America with various water, nitrogen and CO2 treatments. An empirical model fit to one dataset had the best performance, followed by the EBSC models. Stability conditions explained much of the differences between modeling approaches. More accurate simulation of heat stress will likely require use of energy balance approaches that consider atmospheric stability conditions. |
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2018-02-19 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5189 |
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Author |
Mitter, H.; Schoenhart, M.; Larcher, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Title |
The Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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Volume |
209 |
Issue |
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Pages |
286-300 |
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Keywords |
Climate change perception; Private adaptation, Public adaptation; Qualitative analysis; Adaptation stimulus; Adaptation effect; Transformational Adaptation; Adapting Agriculture; Farmers Perceptions; Change Scenarios; Decision-Making; Change Impacts; Land-Use; Vulnerability; Framework; Science |
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Abstract |
Empirical findings on actors’ roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts’ perceptions on (i) climatic and non climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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2018-03-02 |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5192 |
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Author |
Cortignani, R.; Dono, G. |
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Title |
Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Sci. Pol. |
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Volume |
81 |
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Pages |
26-35 |
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Keywords |
Agricultural policy; Climate change; Bio-economic model; Integrated Assessment; Temperature-Humidity Index; Adaptation Pathways; Maximum-Entropy; Model; Cap; Uncertainty; Irrigation; Management; Scenarios; Systems |
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Abstract |
The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration. |
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2018-03-02 |
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1462-9011 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5193 |
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Author |
Andreoli, V.; Cassardo, C.; Iacona, L.T.; Spanna, F. |
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Title |
Description and Preliminary Simulations with the Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical Model for Estimating Physiological Values (IVINE) |
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Journal Article |
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2019 |
Publication |
Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agronomy |
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9 |
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2 |
Pages |
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Keywords |
viticulture; crop model; phenology; physiological processes; climate; micrometeorology; microclimate; climate change; water status; balance model; crop; phenology; growth; STICS; implementation; carbon; yield |
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Abstract |
The numerical crop growth model Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical model for Estimating physiological values (IVINE) was developed in order to evaluate environmental forcing effects on vine growth. The IVINE model simulates vine growth processes with parameterizations, allowing the understanding of plant conditions at a vineyard scale. It requires a set of meteorology data and soil water status as boundary conditions. The primary model outputs are main phenological stages, leaf development, yield, and sugar concentration. The model requires setting some variety information depending on the cultivar: At present, IVINE is optimized for Vitis vinifera L. Nebbiolo, a variety grown mostly in the Piedmont region (northwestern Italy). In order to evaluate the model accuracy, IVINE was validated using experimental observations gathered in Piedmontese vineyards, showing performances similar or slightly better than those of other widely used crop models. The results of a sensitivity analysis performed to highlight the effects of the variations of air temperature and soil water potential input variables on IVINE outputs showed that most phenological stages anticipated with increasing temperatures, while berry sugar content saturated at about 25.5 °Bx. Long-term (60 years, in the period 1950–2009) simulations performed over a Piedmontese subregion showed statistically significant variations of most IVINE output variables, with larger time trend slopes referring to the most recent 30-year period (1980–2009), thus confirming that ongoing climate change started influencing Piedmontese vineyards in 1980. |
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2019-02-21 |
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2073-4395 |
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article |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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5218 |
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Author |
Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Porter, J.R.; Challinor, A.J.; Mueller, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Waha, K.; Thorburn, P.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovic, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Espadafor, M.; Rezaei, E.E.; Ferrise, R.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Horan, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, C.D.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Maiorano, A.; Minoli, S.; San Martin, M.M.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.J.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Roetter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A.; Stockle, C.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Van der Velde, M.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Webber, H.; Wolf, J.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. |
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Title |
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
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Volume |
25 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
1428-1444 |
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Keywords |
1.5 degrees C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production; Climate-Change; Crop Yield; Impacts; Co2; Adaptation; Responses; Models; Agriculture; Simulation; Growth |
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Abstract |
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. |
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2019-04-27 |
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English |
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ISSN |
1354-1013 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5219 |
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