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Author (up) Kipling, R.P.; Virkajärvi, P.; Breitsameter, L.; Curnel, Y.; De Swaef, T.; Gustavsson, A.-M.; Hennart, S.; Höglind, M.; Järvenranta, K.; Minet, J.; Nendel, C.; Persson, T.; Picon-Cochard, C.; Rolinski, S.; Sandars, D.L.; Scollan, N.D.; Sebek, L.; Seddaiu, G.; Topp, C.F.E.; Twardy, S.; Van Middelkoop, J.; Wu, L.; Bellocchi, G. doi  openurl
  Title Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Science of the Total Environment Abbreviated Journal Science of the Total Environment  
  Volume 566-567 Issue Pages 851-864  
  Keywords Climate change; Grasslands; Horizon scanning; Livestock production; Models; Research agenda  
  Abstract Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN 0048-9697 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4761  
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Author (up) Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Landscape Ecology Abbreviated Journal Landscape Ecol.  
  Volume 30 Issue 5 Pages 871-885  
  Keywords Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario  
  Abstract This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN 0921-2973 1572-9761 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4565  
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Author (up) Lardy, R.; Bellocchi, G.; Martin, R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Vuln-Indices: Software to assess vulnerability to climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Computers and Electronics in Agriculture Abbreviated Journal Computers and Electronics in Agriculture  
  Volume 114 Issue Pages 53-57  
  Keywords climate change; Java; vulnerability indices; pasture simulation-model; integrated assessment; environmental-change; change impacts; system  
  Abstract Vuln-Indices Java-based software was developed on concepts of vulnerability to climate change of agro-ecological systems. It implements the calculation of vulnerability indices on series of state variables for assessments at both site and region levels. The tool is useful because synthetic indices help capturing complex processes and prove effective to identify the factors responsible for vulnerability and their relative importance. It is suggested that the tool may be plausible for use with stakeholders to disseminate information of climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  ISSN 0168-1699 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4648  
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Author (up) Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Ecological Economics Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Econ.  
  Volume 87 Issue Pages 1-14  
  Keywords climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons  
  Abstract The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0921-8009 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4606  
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Author (up) Lehtonen, H. openurl 
  Title Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Agricultural and Food Science Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Food Science  
  Volume 24 Issue 3 Pages 219-234  
  Keywords agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy  
  Abstract Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.  
  Address 2016-07-22  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1459-6067 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4750  
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