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Author |
Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050 |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
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Volume |
22 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
763-781 |
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Keywords |
climate change; energy use; global agriculture; greenhouse gas emissions; land use; mitigation; sustainable intensification |
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Abstract |
Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis. |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4706 |
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Author |
Camacho, C.; Pérez-Barahona, A. |
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Title |
Land use dynamics and the environment |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |
Abbreviated Journal |
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |
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Volume |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
96-118 |
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Keywords |
land use; spatial dynamics; pollution; climate-change; air-pollution; agriculture; instability; allocation; principle; pattern; quality; health; impact |
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Abstract |
This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but local actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of time-invariant solutions are not in general guaranteed. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to reach a time-invariant equilibrium that can be spatially heterogeneous. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2015-10-09 |
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0165-1889 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4698 |
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Kim, Y.; Seo, Y.; Kraus, D.; Klatt, S.; Haas, E.; Tenhunen, J.; Kiese, R. |
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Title |
Estimation and mitigation of N₂O emission and nitrate leaching from intensive crop cultivation in the Haean catchment, South Korea |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Science of the Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of the Total Environment |
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Volume |
529 |
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Pages |
40-53 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture; Air Pollutants/*analysis; Air Pollution/prevention & control/*statistics & numerical data; Crops, Agricultural; *Environmental Monitoring; Fertilizers; Nitrogen Dioxide/*analysis; Republic of Korea; LandscapeDNDC; Mitigation strategies; N2O; Nitrate leaching; Water quality |
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Considering intensive agricultural management practices and environmental conditions, the LandscapeDNDC model was applied for simulation of yields, N2O emission and nitrate leaching from major upland crops and temperate deciduous forest of the Haean catchment, South Korea. Fertilization rates were high (up to 314 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) and resulted in simulated direct N2O emissions from potato, radish, soybean and cabbage fields of 1.9 and 2.1 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Nitrate leaching was identified as the dominant pathway of N losses in the Haean catchment with mean annual rates of 112.2 and 125.4 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), causing threats to water quality and leading to substantial indirect N2O emissions of 0.84 and 0.94 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in 2009 and 2010 as estimates by applying the IPCC EF5. Simulated N2O emissions from temperate deciduous forest were low (approx. 0.50 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) and predicted nitrate leaching rates were even negligible (≤0.01 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). On catchment scale more than 50% of the total N2O emissions and up to 75% of nitrate leaching originated from fertilized upland fields, only covering 24% of the catchment area. Taking into account area coverage of simulated upland crops and other land uses these numbers agree well with nitrate loads calculated from discharge and concentration measurements at the catchment outlet. The change of current agricultural management practices showed a high potential of reducing N2O emission and nitrate leaching while maintaining current crop yields. Reducing (39%) and splitting N fertilizer application into 3 times was most effective and lead to about 54% and 77% reducing of N2O emission and nitrate leaching from the Haean catchment, the latter potentially contributing to improved water quality in the Soyang River Dam, which is the major source of drinking water for metropolitan residents. |
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0048-9697 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4684 |
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Author |
Dono, G.; Raffaele, C.; Luca, G.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Title |
Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
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63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
177-186 |
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Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; rdp measures to adapt to climate change; economic impact of climate change; irrigated agriculture and climate change; insurance tools for adaptation to climate change; water markets; risk; variability; management; systems |
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Abstract |
EU rural development policy (RDP) regulation 1305/2013 aims to protect farmers’ incomes from ongoing change of climate variability (CCV), and the increase in frequency of adverse climatic events. An income stabilization tool (IST) is provided to compensate drastic drops in income, including those caused by climatic events. The present study examines some aspect of its application focussing on Mediterranean irrigation area where frequent water shortages may generate significant income reductions in the current climate conditions, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. This enhanced loss of income in the future would occur due to a change in climate variability. This change would appreciably reduce the probability of weather conditions that are favourable for irrigation, but would not significantly increase either the probability of unfavourable weather conditions or the magnitude of their impact. As the IST and other insurance tools that protect against adversity and catastrophic events are only activated under extreme conditions, farmers may not consider them to be suitable in dealing with the new climate regime. This would leave a portion of the financial resources allocated by the RDP unused, resulting in less support for climate change adaptation. |
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0002-1121 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4669 |
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Tao, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Höhn, J.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rajala, A.; Salo, T. |
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Title |
Assessing climate effects on wheat yield and water use in Finland using a super-ensemble-based probabilistic approach |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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23-37 |
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adaptation; drought; evapotranspiration; heat stress; risk; uncertainties; northern agriculture; model; weather; variability; precipitation; uncertainty; adaptation; simulation; dynamics; impacts |
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We adapted a large area crop model, MCWLA-Wheat, to winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. and spring wheat in Finland. We then applied Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to analyze uncertainties in parameter estimations and to optimize parameters. Finally, a super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection system was updated and applied to project the effects of climate change on wheat productivity and water use in Finland. The system used 6 climate scenarios and 20 sets of crop model parameters. We projected spatiotemporal changes of wheat productivity and water use due to climate change/variability during 2021-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results indicate that with a high probability wheat yields will increase substantially in Finland under the tested climate change scenarios, and spring wheat can benefit more from climate change than winter wheat. Nevertheless, in some areas of southern Finland, wheat production will face increasing risk of high temperature and drought, which can offset the benefits of climate change on wheat yield, resulting in an increase in yield variability and about 30% probability of yield decrease for spring wheat. Compared with spring wheat, the development, photosynthesis, and consequently yield will be much less enhanced for winter wheat, which, together with the risk of extreme weather, will result in an up to 56% probability of yield decrease in eastern parts of Finland. Our study explicitly para meterized the effects of extreme temperature and drought stress on wheat yields, and accounted for a wide range of wheat cultivars with contrasting phenological characteristics and thermal requirements. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4667 |
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