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Author |
Zhang, S.; Tao, F.; Zhang, Z. |
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Title |
Changes in extreme temperatures and their impacts on rice yields in southern China from 1981 to 2009 |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
189 |
Issue |
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Pages |
43-50 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation; Agriculture; Climate change; Crop; Extreme climate; Impacts; climate-change; spikelet sterility; heat-stress; crop yields; water-use; vulnerability; responses; period; CO2 |
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Abstract  |
Extreme temperature impacts on field crop are of key concern and increasingly assessed, however the studies have seldom taken into account the automatic adaptations such as shifts in planting dates, phenological dynamics and cultivars. In this present study, trial data on rice phenology, agro-meteorological hazards and yields during 1981-2009 at 120 national agro-meteorological experiment stations were used. The detailed data provide us a unique opportunity to quantify extreme temperature impacts on rice yield more precisely and in a setting with automatic adaptations. In this study, changes in an accumulated thermal index (growing degree day, GDD), a high temperature stress index (>35 degrees C high temperature degree day, HDD), and a cold stress index (<20 degrees C cold degree day, CDD), were firstly investigated. Then, their impacts on rice yield were further quantified by a multivariable analysis. The results showed that in the past three decades, for early rice, late rice and single rice in western part, and single rice in other parts of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, respectively, rice yield increased by 5.83%, 1.71%, 8.73% and 3.49% due to increase in GDD. Rice yield was generally more sensitive to high temperature stress than to cold temperature stress. It decreased by 0.14%, 0.32%, 0.34% and 0.14% due to increase in HDD, by contrast increased by 1.61%, 0.26%, 0.16% and 0.01% due to decrease in CDD, respectively. In addition, decreases in solar radiation reduced rice yield by 0.96%, 0.13%, 9.34% and 6.02%. In the past three decades, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and the negative impacts of decrease in solar radiation played dominant roles in determining overall climate impacts on yield. However, with climate warming in future, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and decrease in CDD will be offset by increase in HDD, resulting in overall negative climate impacts on yield. Our findings highlight the risk of heat stress on rice yield and the importance of developing integrated adaptation strategies to cope with heat stress. |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4731 |
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Author |
Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; Vries, W. de; Gaiser, T.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on European crop yields: Do we need to consider nitrogen limitation |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
71 |
Issue |
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Pages |
123-134 |
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Keywords |
Climate impact assessment; Nitrogen limitation; European crop yields; SIMPLACE Crop modelling framework; model calibration; winter-wheat; scale; co2; productivity; agriculture; strategies; scenarios; systems; growth |
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Abstract |
Global climate impact studies with crop models suggest that including nitrogen and water limitation causes greater negative climate change impacts on actual yields compared to water-limitation only. We simulated water limited and nitrogen water limited yields across the EU-27 to 2050 for six key crops with the SIMPLACE<LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT> model to assess how important consideration of nitrogen limitation is in climate impact studies for European cropping systems. We further investigated how crop nitrogen use may change under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that inclusion of nitrogen limitation hardly changed crop yield response to climate for the spring-sown crops considered (grain maize, potato, and sugar beet). However, for winter-sown crops (winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat), simulated impacts to 2050 were more negative when nitrogen limitation was considered, especially with high levels of water stress. Future nitrogen use rates are likely to decrease due to climate change for spring-sown crops, largely in parallel with their yields. These results imply that climate change impact studies for winter-sown crops should consider N-fertilization. Specification of future N fertilization rates is a methodological challenge that is likely to need integrated assessment models to address. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4726 |
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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. |
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Title |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
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62 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
166-180 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale |
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Abstract |
Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections. |
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2016-10-31 |
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ISSN |
0906-4702 1651-1972 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4802 |
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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. |
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Title |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop production – a global and a Nordic perspective |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
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Volume |
62 |
Issue |
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Pages |
166-180 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale |
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Abstract |
Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections. |
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0906-4702, 1651-1972 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4591 |
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Author |
Dietrich, J.P.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Reducing the loss of information and gaining accuracy with clustering methods in a global land-use model |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
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Volume |
263 |
Issue |
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Pages |
233-243 |
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Keywords |
aggregation; downscaling; clustering; information conservation; land use model; scale; scales; agriculture; simulation; dynamics; pattern |
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Abstract |
Global land-use models have to deal with processes on several spatial scales, ranging from the global scale down to the farm level. The increasing complexity of modern land-use models combined with the problem of limited computational resources represents a challenge to modelers. One solution of this problem is to perform spatial aggregation based on a regular grid or administrative units such as countries. Unfortunately this type of aggregation flattens many regional differences and produces a homogenized map of the world. In this paper we present an alternative aggregation approach using clustering methods. Clustering reduces the loss of information due to aggregation by choosing an appropriate aggregation pattern. We investigate different clustering methods, examining their quality in terms of information conservation. Our results indicate that clustering is always a good choice and preferable compared to grid-based aggregation. Although all the clustering methods we tested delivered a higher degree of information conservation than grid-based aggregation, the choice of clustering method is not arbitrary. Comparing outputs of a model fed with original data and a model fed with aggregated data, bottom-up clustering delivered the best results for the whole range of numbers of clusters tested. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0304-3800 |
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TradeM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4488 |
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