| Records |
| Author |
Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Müller, C.; Frieler, K.; Konzmann, M.; Gerten, D.; Glotter, M.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Best, N.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B.M.; Folberth, C.; Foster, I.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Olin, S.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D. |
| Title |
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
| Volume |
111 |
Issue  |
9 |
Pages |
3239-3244 |
| Keywords |
Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods; Agriculture/economics/*methods; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Forecasting; *Models, Theoretical; Water Supply/*statistics & numerical data; adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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| Language |
English |
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| ISSN |
0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4790 |
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| Author |
Piontek, F.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Colón González, F.J.; Flörke, M.; Folberth, C.; Franssen, W.; Frieler, K.; Friend, A.D.; Gosling, S.N.; Hemming, D.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Lomas, M.R.; Masaki, Y.; Mengel, M.; Morse, A.; Neumann, K.; Nishina, K.; Ostberg, S.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Schewe, J.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Tessler, Z.D.; Tompkins, A.M.; Warszawski, L.; Wisser, D.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
| Title |
Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
| Volume |
111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3233-3238 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Ecosystem; *Environment; Geography; Global Warming/economics/*statistics & numerical data; Humans; Malaria/epidemiology; *Models, Theoretical; *Public Policy; Temperature; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Isi-mip; coinciding pressures; differential climate impacts |
| Abstract |
The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty. |
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English |
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0027-8424 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4538 |
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| Author |
De Swaef, T.; Bellocchi, G.; Aper, J.; Lootens, P.; Roldan-Ruiz, I. |
| Title |
Use of identifiability analysis in designing phenotyping experiments for modelling forage production and quality |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
| Volume |
70 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
2587-2604 |
| Keywords |
Breeding; grassland modelling; identifiability analysis; perennial; ryegrass; phenotyping; sensitivity analysis; pasture simulation-model; practical identifiability; crop; water; parameters; systems; carbon; uncertainty; sensitivity; emissions |
| Abstract |
Agricultural systems models are complex and tend to be over-parameterized with respect to observational datasets. Practical identifiability analysis based on local sensitivity analysis has proved effective in investigating identifiable parameter sets in environmental models, but has not been applied to agricultural systems models. Here, we demonstrate that identifiability analysis improves experimental design to ensure independent parameter estimation for yield and quality outputs of a complex grassland model. The Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of practical identifiability analysis in designing experiments and measurement protocols within phe-notyping experiments with perennial ryegrass. Virtual experiments were designed combining three factors: frequency of measurements, duration of the experiment. and location of trials. Our results demonstrate that (i) PaSim provides sufficient detail in terms of simulating biomass yield and quality of perennial ryegrass for use in breeding, (ii) typical breeding trials are insufficient to parameterize all influential parameters, (iii) the frequency of measurements is more important than the number of growing seasons to improve the identifiability of PaSim parameters, and (iv) identifiability analysis provides a sound approach for optimizing the design of multi-location trials. Practical identifiability analysis can play an important role in ensuring proper exploitation of phenotypic data and cost-effective multi-location experimental designs. Considering the growing importance of simulation models, this study supports the design of experiments and measurement protocols in the phenotyping networks that have recently been organized. |
| Address |
2020-02-14 |
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English |
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0022-0957 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5231 |
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| Author |
De Pascale, S.; Orsini, F.; Caputo, R.; Palermo, M.A.; Barbieri, G.; Maggio, A. |
| Title |
Seasonal and multiannual effects of salinisation on tomato yield and fruit quality |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Functional Plant Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Functional Plant Biology |
| Volume |
39 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
689-698 |
| Keywords |
fruit ions concentration; fruit lipophilic and hydrophilic antioxidant; capacities; leaf water potentials; leaf stomatal conductance; short- and; long-term salinisation; salinity tolerance; water-stress; antioxidant activity; irrigation; growth; plants; soils; carotenoids; responses; crops |
| Abstract |
The effects of short-and long-term salinisation were studied by comparing tomato growth on a soil exposed to one-season salinisation (short term) vs growth on a soil exposed to >20 years salinisation (long term). Remarkable differences were associated to substantial modifications of the soil physical-chemical characteristics in the root zone, including deteriorated structure, reduced infiltration properties and increased pH. Fresh yield, fruit number and fruit weight were similarly affected by short-and long-term salinisation. In contrast, the marketable yield was significantly lower in the long-term salinised soil-a response that was also associated to nutritional imbalance (mainly referred to P and K). As reported for plants growing under oxygen deprivation stress, the antioxidant capacity of the water soluble fraction of salinised tomato fruits was enhanced by short-term salinisation, also. Overall, long-term salinisation may cause physiological imbalances and yield reductions that cannot be solely attributed to hyperosmotic stress and ionic toxicity. Therefore, the ability of plants to cope with nutritional deficiency and withstand high pH and anoxia may be important traits that should be considered to improve plant tolerance to long-term salinised soils. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1445-4408 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4583 |
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| Author |
Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, W. |
| Title |
Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Earth System Sci. |
| Volume |
19 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
3073-3091 |
| Keywords |
surface-water; vegetation model; climate-change; food demand; fresh-water; efficiency; productivity; groundwater; impacts; requirements |
| Abstract |
Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also nontrivial downstream effects, we incorporated a process-based representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a bio- and agrosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded world map of irrigation efficiencies that are calculated in direct linkage to differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with the lowest values (< 30 %) in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and the highest values (> 60 %) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2469 km(3) (2004-2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1257 km(3), of which 608 km(3) are non-beneficially consumed, i.e., lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world’s river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76 %, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15 %, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems. In this paper, presented opportunities associated with irrigation improvements are significant and suggest that they should be considered an important means on the way to sustainable food security. |
| Address |
2016-06-01 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1607-7938 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4739 |
| Permanent link to this record |
