| Records |
Author  |
Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Muller, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenoder, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Schaphoff, S.; Popp, A. |
| Title |
Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
| Volume |
47 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
121-132 |
| Keywords |
Livestock; Productivity; Dietary changes; Consumptive water use; Water scarcity; Water resources; Climate-Change Mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Global Vegetation; Model; Land-Use; Comprehensive Assessment; Fresh-Water; Systems; Requirements; Irrigation; Carbon |
| Abstract |
Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand-and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshWater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km(3) yr(-1)). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19-36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26-69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
| Address |
2018-01-08 |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0959-3780 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5183 |
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| Author |
Webber, H.; Gaiser, T.; Oomen, R.; Teixeira, E.; Zhao, G.; Wallach, D.; Zimmermann, A.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
crop model; impact assessment; crop water use; evapotranspiration; irrigation; drought; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
While crop models are widely used to assess the change in crop productivity with climate change, their skill in assessing irrigation water demand or the risk of crop failure in large area impact assessments is relatively unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate which aspects of modeling crop water use (reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), soil water extraction, soil evaporation, soil water balance and root growth) contributes most to the variability in estimates of maize crop water use and the risk of crop failure, and demonstrate the resulting uncertainty in a climate change impact study for Europe. The SIMPLACE crop modeling framework was used to couple the LINTUL5 crop model in factorial combinations of 2-3 different approaches for simulating the 5 aspects of crop water use, resulting in 51 modeling approaches. Using experiments in France and New Zeland, analysis of total sensitivity revealed that ET0 explained the most variability in both irrigated maize water use and rainfed grain yield levels, with soil evaporation also imporatant in the French experiment. In the European impact study, net irrigation requirement differed by 36% between the Penman and Hargreaves ET0 methods in the baseline period. Average EU grain yields were similar between models, but differences approached 1-2 tonnes in parts of France and Southern Europe. EU wide esimates of crop failure in the historical period ranged between 5.4 years for Priestley-Taylor to every 7.9 years for the Penman ET0 methods. While the uncertainty in absolute values between models was significant, estimates of relative changes were similar between models, confirming the utility of crop models in assessing climate change impacts. If ET0 estimates in crop models can be improved, through the use of appropriate methods, uncertainty in irrigation water demand as well as in yield estimates under drought can be reduced. |
| Address |
2016-09-13 |
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Language |
Summary Language |
Newsletter July |
Original Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Article |
| Area |
CropM |
Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM; wos; ft=macsur; |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4778 |
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| Author |
Perego, A.; Sanna, M.; Giussani, A.; Chiodini, M.E.; Fumagalli, M.; Pilu, S.R.; Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M.; Acutis, M. |
| Title |
Designing a high-yielding maize ideotype for a changing climate in Lombardy plain (northern Italy) |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Science of The Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of The Total Environment |
| Volume |
499 |
Issue |
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Pages |
497-509 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/standards; *Climate Change; Droughts; Italy; Nitrogen/analysis; Soil; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Zea mays/*growth & development/standards; Climate change; Crop model; Maize; Water use adaptation |
| Abstract |
The expected climate change will affect the maize yields in view of air temperature increase and scarce water availability. The application of biophysical models offers the chance to design a drought-resistant ideotype and to assist plant breeders and agronomists in the assessment of its suitability in future scenarios. The aim of the present work was to perform a model-based estimation of the yields of two hybrids, current vs ideotype, under future climate scenarios (2030-2060 and 2070-2100) in Lombardy (northern Italy), testing two options of irrigation (small amount at fixed dates vs optimal water supply), nitrogen (N) fertilization (300 vs 400 kg N ha(-1)), and crop cycle durations (current vs extended). For the designing of the ideotype we set several parameters of the ARMOSA process-based crop model: the root elongation rate and maximum depth, stomatal resistance, four stage-specific crop coefficients for the actual transpiration estimation, and drought tolerance factor. The work findings indicated that the current hybrid ensures good production only with high irrigation amount (245-565 mm y(-1)). With respect to the current hybrid, the ideotype will require less irrigation water (-13%, p<0.01) and it resulted in significantly higher yield under water stress condition (+15%, p<0.01) and optimal water supply (+2%, p<0.05). The elongated cycle has a positive effect on yield under any combination of options. Moreover, higher yields projected for the ideotype implicate more crop residues to be incorporated into the soil, which are positively correlated with the SOC sequestration and negatively with N leaching. The crop N uptake is expected to be adequate in view of higher rate of soil mineralization; the N fertilization rate of 400 kg N ha(-1) will involve significant increasing of grain yield, and it is expected to involve a higher rate of SOC sequestration. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0048-9697 |
ISBN |
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Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4798 |
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| Author |
Perego, A.; Sanna, M.; Giussani, A.; Chiodini, M.E.; Fumagalli, M.; Pilu, S.R.; Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M.; Acutis, M. |
| Title |
Designing a high-yielding maize ideotype for a changing climate in Lombardy plain northern Italy |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Science of the Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of the Total Environment |
| Volume |
499 |
Issue |
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Pages |
497-509 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/standards; *Climate Change; Droughts; Italy; Nitrogen/analysis; Soil; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Zea mays/*growth & development/standards; Climate change; Crop model; Maize; Water use adaptation |
| Abstract |
• ARMOSA model simulated a maize ideotype with drought adaptation under climate change. • The ideotype needs less water for higher yield compared to current hybrids. • Higher production involves more crop residues that enhance soil C sequestration. • Soil organic C may generally decrease and N leaching will increase in sandy soil. The expected climate change will affect the maize yields in view of air temperature increase and scarce water availability. The application of biophysical models offers the chance to design a drought-resistant ideotype and to assist plant breeders and agronomists in the assessment of its suitability in future scenarios. The aim of the present work was to perform a model-based estimation of the yields of two hybrids, current vs ideotype, under future climate scenarios (2030–2060 and 2070–2100) in Lombardy (northern Italy), testing two options of irrigation (small amount at fixed dates vs optimal water supply), nitrogen (N) fertilization (300 vs 400 kg N ha− 1), and crop cycle durations (current vs extended). For the designing of the ideotype we set several parameters of the ARMOSA process-based crop model: the root elongation rate and maximum depth, stomatal resistance, four stage-specific crop coefficients for the actual transpiration estimation, and drought tolerance factor. The work findings indicated that the current hybrid ensures good production only with high irrigation amount (245–565 mm y− 1). With respect to the current hybrid, the ideotype will require less irrigation water (− 13%, p < 0.01) and it resulted in significantly higher yield under water stress condition (+ 15%, p < 0.01) and optimal water supply (+ 2%, p < 0.05). The elongated cycle has a positive effect on yield under any combination of options. Moreover, higher yields projected for the ideotype implicate more crop residues to be incorporated into the soil, which are positively correlated with the SOC sequestration and negatively with N leaching. The crop N uptake is expected to be adequate in view of higher rate of soil mineralization; the N fertilization rate of 400 kg N ha− 1 will involve significant increasing of grain yield, and it is expected to involve a higher rate of SOC sequestration. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| ISSN |
0048-9697 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4633 |
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| Author |
Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. |
| Title |
Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
| Volume |
87 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-14 |
| Keywords |
climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons |
| Abstract |
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0921-8009 |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4606 |
| Permanent link to this record |
