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Author Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P.
Title Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg Environ Change
Volume 16 Issue 6 Pages (down) 1715-1723
Keywords Adaptation; Climate change; Climate extremes; Drought; Impacts and vulnerability
Abstract We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.
Address 2016-06-20
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1436-3798 1436-378x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4757
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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T.R.; Harrison, P.A.; Rounsevell, M.
Title Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models Type Journal Article
Year 2019 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change
Volume 19 Issue 3 Pages (down) 711-721
Keywords Adaptive capacity; Limits; Water; Land; Decision making; Integrated assessment; Land-Cover Change; Global Change; River-Basin; Integrated Assessment; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Variability; Precautionary; Agriculture; Management
Abstract Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.
Address 2019-04-27
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5220
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Author Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K.
Title Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment Type Journal Article
Year 2012 Publication Landscape Ecology Abbreviated Journal Landscape Ecol.
Volume 27 Issue 4 Pages (down) 509-527
Keywords agriculture; adaptation; climate change; farm structural change; flevoland; agricultural land-use; future; policy; adaptation; diversification; vulnerability; productivity; consequences; variability; performance
Abstract Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0921-2973 1572-9761 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4477
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Author Eza, U.; Shtiliyanova, A.; Borras, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Carrère, P.; Martin, R.
Title An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Ecological Informatics Abbreviated Journal Ecological Informatics
Volume 30 Issue Pages (down) 389-396
Keywords climate change; grasslands; modeling platform; vulnerability assessment; pasture simulation-model; software component; solar-radiation; crop production; change impacts; adaptation; indicator; makers
Abstract Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1574-9541 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4708
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Author Ben Touhami, H.; Bellocchi, G.
Title Bayesian calibration of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to simulate European grasslands under water stress Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Ecological Informatics Abbreviated Journal Ecological Informatics
Volume 30 Issue Pages (down) 356-364
Keywords Bayesian calibration framework; Grasslands; Pasture Simulation model; (PaSim); integrated assessment models; chain monte-carlo; climate-change; computation; impacts; vulnerability; likelihoods; france
Abstract As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the agro-environmental sciences, scientists need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. We present a generic Bayesian computation framework for grassland simulation, which enables parameter estimation in the Bayesian formalism by using Monte Carlo approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational issues, and provide results from an application of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to three European grasslands. The framework was suited to investigate the challenging problem of calibrating complex biophysical models to data from altered scenarios generated by precipitation reduction (water stress conditions). It was used to infer the parameters of manipulated grassland systems and to assess the gain in uncertainty reduction by updating parameter distributions using measurements of the output variables.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1574-9541 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4697
Permanent link to this record