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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D.
Title Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal (up) Agric. Syst.
Volume 151 Issue Pages 126-135
Keywords Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture
Abstract The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
Address 2017-02-23
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Notes LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4937
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Author Pasqui, M.; Di Giuseppe, E.
Title Climate change, future warming, and adaptation in Europe Type Journal Article
Year 2019 Publication Animal Frontiers Abbreviated Journal (up) Animal Frontiers
Volume 9 Issue 1 Pages 6-11
Keywords heat waves; impacts; perception; vulnerability; temperature-humidity index; extremes indexes
Abstract In recent decades, the increased temperatures reported in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin represent one of the clearest footprints of climate change along with increased frequency of heat waves. These climate modifications put the environment and human activities under strong pressure with a resulting need for designing new adaptation and mitigation strategies. The climate change challenge is unprecedented for humanity and is recognized as a priority topic for future research. Changes in the way we think and behave are critical challenges at the global and regional levels.
Address 2020-06-08
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Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5236
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Author Lardy, R.; Bellocchi, G.; Martin, R.
Title Vuln-Indices: Software to assess vulnerability to climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Computers and Electronics in Agriculture Abbreviated Journal (up) Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
Volume 114 Issue Pages 53-57
Keywords climate change; Java; vulnerability indices; pasture simulation-model; integrated assessment; environmental-change; change impacts; system
Abstract Vuln-Indices Java-based software was developed on concepts of vulnerability to climate change of agro-ecological systems. It implements the calculation of vulnerability indices on series of state variables for assessments at both site and region levels. The tool is useful because synthetic indices help capturing complex processes and prove effective to identify the factors responsible for vulnerability and their relative importance. It is suggested that the tool may be plausible for use with stakeholders to disseminate information of climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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ISSN 0168-1699 ISBN Medium Article
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Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4648
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Author Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.
Title Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Ecological Economics Abbreviated Journal (up) Ecol. Econ.
Volume 87 Issue Pages 1-14
Keywords climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons
Abstract The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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ISSN 0921-8009 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4606
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Author Eza, U.; Shtiliyanova, A.; Borras, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Carrère, P.; Martin, R.
Title An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Ecological Informatics Abbreviated Journal (up) Ecological Informatics
Volume 30 Issue Pages 389-396
Keywords climate change; grasslands; modeling platform; vulnerability assessment; pasture simulation-model; software component; solar-radiation; crop production; change impacts; adaptation; indicator; makers
Abstract Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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ISSN 1574-9541 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4708
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