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Author |
Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title  |
Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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52 |
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69-80 |
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Keywords |
integrated assessment; data envelopment analysis; farm adaptation; farm model; technical efficiency; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; european-community; future; crop; efficiency; impacts; systems |
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Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current “best” practices and explore future adaptation strategies at farm level. The objective of this article is to assess the impact of different climate change and socio-economic scenarios on arable farming systems in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and to explore possible adaptation strategies. Data Envelopment Analysis was used to identify these current “best” practices while bio-economic modelling was used to calculate a number of important economic and environmental indicators in scenarios for 2050. Relative differences between yields with and without climate change and technological change were simulated with a crop bio-physical model and used as a correction factors for the observed crop yields of current “best” practices. We demonstrated the capacity of the proposed methodology to explore multiple scenarios by analysing the importance of drivers of change, while accounting for variation between individual farms. It was found that farmers in Flevoland are in general technically efficient and a substantial share of the arable land is currently under profit maximization. We found that climate change increased productivity in all tested scenarios. However, the effects of different socio-economic scenarios (globalized and regionalized economies) on the economic and environmental performance of the farms were variable. Scenarios of a globalized economy where the prices of outputs were simulated to increase substantially might result in increased average gross margin and lower average (per ha) applications of crop protection and fertilizers. However, the effects might differ between different farm types. It was found that, the abolishment of sugar beet quota and changes of future prices of agricultural inputs and outputs in such socio-economic scenario (i.e. globalized economy) caused a decrease in gross margins of smaller (in terms of economic size) farms, while gross margin of larger farms increased. In scenarios where more regionalized economies and a moderate climate change are assumed, the future price ratios between inputs and outputs are shown to be the key factors for the viability of arable farms in our simulations. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4526 |
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Caubel, J.; García de Cortázar-Atauri, I.; Launay, M.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Huard, F.; Bertuzzi, P.; Graux, A.-I. |
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Title |
Broadening the scope for ecoclimatic indicators to assess crop climate suitability according to ecophysiological, technical and quality criteria |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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207 |
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94-106 |
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Climate suitability; Indicator-based method of evaluation; Ecoclimatic; indicator; Crop phenology; Crop ecophysiology; Crop management; Yield; quality; high-temperature; heat-stress; change scenarios; maize; wheat; growth; yield; agriculture; systems; time |
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The cultivation of crops in a given area is highly dependent of climatic conditions. Assessment of how the climate is favorable is highly useful for planners, land managers, farmers and plant breeders who can propose and apply adaptation strategies to improve agricultural potentialities. The aim of this study was to develop an assessment method for crop-climate suitability that was generic enough to be applied to a wide range of issues and crops. The method proposed is based on agroclimatic indicators that are calculated over phenological periods (ecoclimatic indicators). These indicators are highly relevant since they provide accurate information about the effect of climate on particular plant processes and cultural practices that take place during specific phenological periods. Three case studies were performed in order to illustrate the potentialities of the method. They concern annual (maize and wheat) and perennial (grape) crops and focus on the study of climate suitability in terms of the following criteria: ecophysiological, days available to carry out cultural practices, and harvest quality. The analysis of the results revealed both the advantages and limitations of the method. The method is general and flexible enough to be applied to a wide range of issues even if an expert assessment is initially needed to build the analysis framework. The limited number of input data makes it possible to use it to explore future possibilities for agriculture in many areas. The access to intermediate information through elementary ecoclimatic indicators allows users to propose targeted adaptations when climate suitability is not satisfactory. |
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0168-1923 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4553 |
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Zimmermann, A.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Kros, J.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; de Vries, W. |
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Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
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Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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157 |
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81-92 |
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Integrated assessment; Crop management; Climate change; Europe; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE; FOOD SECURITY; HEAT-STRESS; ADAPTATION; SYSTEMS; TEMPERATURE; SCENARIOS; WHEAT; PRODUCTIVITY; Vries W., 2011, ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, V159, P3254 |
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Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time requirements to minimize yield losses or realize yield gains. The main objective of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of climate change impacts on European crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops sowing dates and varieties’ thermal time requirements. A crop, economic and environmental model were coupled in an integrated assessment modelling approach for six important crops, for 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) to assess results of three SRES climate change scenarios to 2050. Crop yields under climate change were simulated considering three different management cases; (i) no change in crop management from baseline conditions (NoAd), (ii) adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements to give highest yields to 2050 (Opt) and (iii) a more conservative adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements (Act). Averaged across EU27, relative changes in water-limited crop yields due to climate change and increased CO2 varied between -6 and + 21% considering NoAd management, whereas impacts with Opt management varied between + 12 and + 53%, and those under Act management between 2 and + 27%. However, relative yield increases under climate change increased to + 17 and + 51% when technology progress was also considered. Importantly, the sensitivity to crop management assumptions of land use, production and environmental impacts were less pronounced than for crop yields due to the influence of corresponding market, farm resource and land allocation adjustments along the model chain acting via economic optimization of yields. We conclude that assumptions about crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements affect impact variables but to a different extent and generally decreasing for variables affected by economic drivers. |
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2017-11-02 |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5178 |
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Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; Vries, W. de; Gaiser, T.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on European crop yields: Do we need to consider nitrogen limitation |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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71 |
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123-134 |
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Keywords |
Climate impact assessment; Nitrogen limitation; European crop yields; SIMPLACE Crop modelling framework; model calibration; winter-wheat; scale; co2; productivity; agriculture; strategies; scenarios; systems; growth |
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Global climate impact studies with crop models suggest that including nitrogen and water limitation causes greater negative climate change impacts on actual yields compared to water-limitation only. We simulated water limited and nitrogen water limited yields across the EU-27 to 2050 for six key crops with the SIMPLACE<LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT> model to assess how important consideration of nitrogen limitation is in climate impact studies for European cropping systems. We further investigated how crop nitrogen use may change under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that inclusion of nitrogen limitation hardly changed crop yield response to climate for the spring-sown crops considered (grain maize, potato, and sugar beet). However, for winter-sown crops (winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat), simulated impacts to 2050 were more negative when nitrogen limitation was considered, especially with high levels of water stress. Future nitrogen use rates are likely to decrease due to climate change for spring-sown crops, largely in parallel with their yields. These results imply that climate change impact studies for winter-sown crops should consider N-fertilization. Specification of future N fertilization rates is a methodological challenge that is likely to need integrated assessment models to address. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4726 |
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Salo, T.J.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Angulo, C.; Ewert, F.; Bindi, M.; Calanca, P.; Klein, T.; Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Ruget, F.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
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Journal of Agricultural Science |
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J. Agric. Sci. |
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154 |
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7 |
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1218-1240 |
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northern growing conditions; climate-change impacts; spring barley; systems simulation; farming systems; soil properties; winter-wheat; dynamics; growth; management |
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Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop model inter-comparison under different levels of N supply to date. The models were calibrated using data from 2002 and 2008, of which 2008 included six N rates ranging from 0 to 150 kg N/ha. Calibration data consisted of weather, soil, phenology, leaf area index (LAI) and yield observations. The models were then tested against new data for 2009 and their performance was assessed and compared with both the two calibration years and the test year. For the calibration period, root mean square error between measurements and simulated grain dry matter yields ranged from 170 to 870 kg/ha. During the test year 2009, most models failed to accurately reproduce the observed low yield without N fertilizer as well as the steep yield response to N applications. The multi-model predictions were closer to observations than most single-model predictions, but multi-model mean could not correct systematic errors in model simulations. Variation in soil N mineralization and LAI development due to differences in weather not captured by the models most likely was the main reason for their unsatisfactory performance. This suggests the need for model improvement in soil N mineralization as a function of soil temperature and moisture. Furthermore, specific weather event impacts such as low temperatures after emergence in 2009, tending to enhance tillering, and a high precipitation event just before harvest in 2008, causing possible yield penalties, were not captured by any of the models compared in the current study. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4713 |
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