| Records |
| Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
| Title |
Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Food and Energy Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Energy Secur. |
| Volume |
2 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
185-196 |
| Keywords |
Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat |
| Abstract |
Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology. |
| Address |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
2048-3694 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4505 |
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| Author |
Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Gerten, D.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bodirsky, B.; Biewald, A.; Popp, A. |
| Title |
Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Research |
| Volume |
49 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
3601-3617 |
| Keywords |
water scarcity; land use model; irrigation efficiency; trade liberalization; livestock consumption; modeling; land cover change; water budgets |
| Abstract |
An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0043-1397 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4502 |
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| Author |
Molina-Herrera, S.; Haas, E.; Grote, R.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Kraus, D.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Friedrich, R.; Andreae, H.; Loubet, B.; Ammann, C.; Horvath, L.; Larsen, K.; Gruening, C.; Frumau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K. |
| Title |
Importance of soil NO emissions for the total atmospheric NOX budget of Saxony, Germany |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Atmospheric Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Atm. Environ. |
| Volume |
152 |
Issue |
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Pages |
61-76 |
| Keywords |
LandscapeDNDC; Model evaluation; NOX emissions; Soil emissions; Distributed modeling; Emission inventory; Nitric-Oxide Emissions; European Forest Soils; Nitrous-Oxide; N2O; Emissions; Agricultural Soils; Gas Emissions; Organic Soil; Trace Gases; Model; Fluxes |
| Abstract |
Soils are a significant source for the secondary greenhouse gas NO and assumed to be a significant source of tropospheric NOx in rural areas. Here we tested the LandscapeDNDC model for its capability to simulate magnitudes and dynamics of soil NO emissions for 22 sites differing in land use (arable, grassland and forest) and edaphic as well as climatic conditions. Overall, LandscapeDNDC simulated mean soil NO emissions agreed well with observations (r(2) = 0.82). However, simulated day to day variations of NO did only agree weakly with high temporal resolution measurements, though agreement between simulations and measurements significantly increased if data were aggregated to weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales. The model reproduced NO emissions from high and low emitting sites, and responded to fertilization (mineral and organic) events with pulse emissions. After evaluation, we linked the LandscapeDNDC model to a GIS database holding spatially explicit data on climate, land use, soil and management to quantify the contribution of soil biogenic NO emissions to the total NOx budget for the State of Saxony, Germany. Our calculations show that soils of both agricultural and forest systems are significant sources and contribute to about 8% (uncertainty range: 6 -13%) to the total annual tropospheric NO, budget for Saxony. However, the contributions of soil NO emission to total tropospheric NO, showed a high spatial variability and in some rural regions such as the Ore Mts., simulated soil NO emissions were by far more important than anthropogenic sources. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2017-04-07 |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1352-2310 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4943 |
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| Author |
Malone, R.W.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kaspar, T.C.; Ma, L.; Jaynes, D.B.; Gillette, K. |
| Title |
Winter rye as a cover crop reduces nitrate loss to subsurface drainage as simulated by HERMES |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Water Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Water Manage. |
| Volume |
184 |
Issue |
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Pages |
156-169 |
| Keywords |
Subsurface drainage, Cover crop, Nitrate loss, Modeling, Denitrification; NITROGEN DYNAMICS; TILE DRAINAGE; AGROECOSYSTEM MODELS; MISSISSIPPI; RIVER; GROWTH-MODEL; RZWQM-DSSAT; DRAINMOD-N; CATCH CROP; SOIL; WATER |
| Abstract |
HERMES is a widely used agricultural system model; however, it has never been tested for simulating N loss to subsurface drainage. Here, we integrated a simple drain flbw component into HERMES. We then compared the predictions to four years of data (2002-2005) from central Iowa fields in corn-oybean with winter rye as a cover crop (CC) and without winter rye (NCC). We also compared the HERMES predictions to the more complex Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) predictions for the same dataset. The average annual observed and simulated N loss to drain flow were 43.8 and 44.4 kg N/ha (NCC) and 17.6 and 18.9 kg N/ha (CC). The slightly over predicted N loss for CC was because of over predicted nitrate concentration, which may be partly caused by slightly under predicted average annual rye shoot N (observed and simulated values were 47.8 and 46.0 kg N/ha). Also, recent research from the site suggests that the soil field capacity may be greater in CC while we used the same soil parameters for both treatments. A local sensitivity analysis suggests that increased field capacity affects HERMES simulations, which includes reduced drain flow nitrate concentrations, increased denitrification, and reduced drain flow volume. HERMES-simulated cumulative monthly drain flow and annual drain flow were reasonable compared to field data and HERMES performance was comparable to other published drainage model tests. Unlike the RZWQM simulations, however, the modified HERMES did riot accurately simulate the year to year variability in nitrate concentration difference between NCC and CC, possibly due in part to the lack of partial mixing and displacement of the soil solution. The results suggest that 1) the relatively simple model HERMES is a promising tool to estimate annual N loss to drain flow under corn-soybean rotations with winter rye as a cover crop and 2) soil field capacity is a critical parameter to investigate to more thoroughly understand and appropriately model denitrification and N losses to subsurface drainage. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
| Address |
2017-04-28 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0378-3774 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4946 |
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| Author |
Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. |
| Title |
Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
in press |
| Keywords |
land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services |
| Abstract |
Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets. |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1436-3798 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4996 |
| Permanent link to this record |
