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Author Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. doi  openurl
  Title Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Food and Energy Security Abbreviated Journal Food Energy Secur.  
  Volume 2 Issue 3 Pages 185-196  
  Keywords Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat  
  Abstract Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2048-3694 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4505  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Strauss, F.; Moltchanova, E.; Schmid, E. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Spatially explicit modeling of long-term drought impacts on crop production in Austria Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication American Journal of Climate Change Abbreviated Journal American Journal of Climate Change  
  Volume 2 Issue 3 Pages 1-11  
  Keywords Long-Term Drought Modeling; Dry Day Index; Biophysical Impacts; Spatial Variability; EPIC; Austria  
  Abstract Droughts have serious and widespread impacts on crop production with substantial economic losses. The frequency and severity of drought events may increase in the future due to climate change. We have developed three meteorological drought scenarios for Austria in the period 2008-2040. The scenarios are defined based on a dry day index which is combined with bootstrapping from an observed daily weather dataset of the period 1975-2007. The severity of long-term drought scenarios is characterized by lower annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as more sig- nificant temperature increases compared to the observations. The long-term impacts of the drought scenarios on Aus- trian crop production have been analyzed with the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Our simulation outputs show that—for areas with historical mean annual precipitation sums below 850 mm— already slight increases in dryness result in significantly lower crop yields i.e. depending on the drought severity, be- tween 0.6% and 0.9% decreases in mean annual dry matter crop yields per 1.0% decrease in mean annual precipitation sums. The EPIC results of more severe droughts show that spring and summer precipitation may become a limiting factor in crop production even in regions with historical abundant precipitation.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2167-9495 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4507  
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Author Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume Issue Pages in press  
  Keywords land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services  
  Abstract Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.  
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  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4996  
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Author Toscano, P.; Ranieri, R.; Matese, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Gioli, B.; Zaldei, A.; Silvestri, M.; Ronchi, C.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Miglietta, F. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Durum wheat modeling: The Delphi system, 11 years of observations in Italy Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy  
  Volume 43 Issue Pages 108-118  
  Keywords durum wheat; crop modeling; yield forecasting; calibration; scenarios; decision-support-system; crop simulation-model; ceres-wheat; mediterranean environment; winter-wheat; scaling-up; variability; quality; growth; water  
  Abstract ► Delphi system, based on AFRCWHEAT2 model, for durum wheat forecast. ► AFRCWHEAT2 model was calibrated and validated for three years. ► A scenario approach was applied to simulation of durum wheat yield. ► Operational mode for eleven years in rainfed and water limiting conditions. ► Accurate forecast as an useful planning tool. Crop models are frequently used in ecology, agronomy and environmental sciences for simulating crop and environmental variables at a discrete time step. The aim of this work was to test the predictive capacity of the Delphi system, calibrated and determined for each pedoclimatic factor affecting durum wheat during phenological development. at regional scale. We present an innovative system capable of predicting spatial yield variation and temporal yield fluctuation in long-term analysis, that are the main purposes of regional crop simulation study. The Delphi system was applied to simulate growth and yield of durum wheat in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany). The model was validated and evaluated for three years (1995-1997) at 11 experimental fields and then used in operational mode for eleven years (1999-2009), showing an excellent/good accuracy in predicting grain yield even before maturity for a wide range of growing conditions in the Mediterranean climate, governed by different annual weather patterns. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression and normalized root mean squared error with known crop yield statistics at regional level. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4596  
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Author Wallach, D. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Developing skills: how to train adaptive modelers Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences  
  Volume 6 Issue 01 Pages 52-53  
  Keywords capacity building; skills development; training; integrated modeling  
  Abstract  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2040-4700 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Hub, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4683  
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