| Records |
| Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Hill, J.; Cullen, B. |
| Title |
Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Animal Production Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal Production Science |
| Volume |
55 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1106-1116 |
| Keywords |
carry-forward surplus; conserved-hay; probability; winter deficit; grown forage consumption; new-zealand; nutritive characteristics; interannual variation; botanical composition; herbage accumulation; crop; systems; cows; management; profit |
| Abstract |
The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions. |
| Address |
2015-09-23 |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1836-5787 |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
LiveM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial  |
4689 |
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| Author |
Kässi, P.; Känkänen, H.; Niskanen, O.; Lehtonen, H.; Höglind, M. |
| Title |
Farm level approach to manage grass yield variation under climate change in Finland and north-western Russia |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Biosystems Engineering |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biosystems Engineering |
| Volume |
140 |
Issue |
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Pages |
11-22 |
| Keywords |
silage grass; risk management; dairy farms; buffer storage; agricultural economics; grassland modelling; dairy-cows; impact; security; timothy; harvest; future; growth; norway; europe; time |
| Abstract |
Cattle feeding in Northern Europe is based on grass silage, but grass growth is highly dependent on weather conditions. If ensuring sufficient silage availability in every situation is prioritised, the lowest expected yield level determines the cultivated area in farmers’ decision-making. One way to manage the variation in grass yield is to increase grass production and silage storage capacity so that they exceed the annual consumption at the farm. The cost of risk management in the current and the projected future climate was calculated taking into account grassland yield and yield variability for three study areas under current and mid-21st century climate conditions. The dataset on simulated future grass yields used as input for the risk management calculations were taken from a previously published simulation study. Strategies investigated included using up to 60% more silage grass area than needed in a year with average grass yields, and storing silage for up to 6 months more than consumed in a year (buffer storage). According to the results, utilising an excess silage grass area of 20% and a silage buffer storage capacity of 6 months were the most economic ways of managing drought risk in both the baseline climate and the projected climate of 2046-2065. It was found that the silage yield risk due to drought is likely to decrease in all studied locations, but the drought risk and costs implied still remain significant. (C) 2015 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1537-5110 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4671 |
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| Author |
Dono, G.; Raffaele, C.; Luca, G.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
177-186 |
| Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; rdp measures to adapt to climate change; economic impact of climate change; irrigated agriculture and climate change; insurance tools for adaptation to climate change; water markets; risk; variability; management; systems |
| Abstract |
EU rural development policy (RDP) regulation 1305/2013 aims to protect farmers’ incomes from ongoing change of climate variability (CCV), and the increase in frequency of adverse climatic events. An income stabilization tool (IST) is provided to compensate drastic drops in income, including those caused by climatic events. The present study examines some aspect of its application focussing on Mediterranean irrigation area where frequent water shortages may generate significant income reductions in the current climate conditions, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. This enhanced loss of income in the future would occur due to a change in climate variability. This change would appreciably reduce the probability of weather conditions that are favourable for irrigation, but would not significantly increase either the probability of unfavourable weather conditions or the magnitude of their impact. As the IST and other insurance tools that protect against adversity and catastrophic events are only activated under extreme conditions, farmers may not consider them to be suitable in dealing with the new climate regime. This would leave a portion of the financial resources allocated by the RDP unused, resulting in less support for climate change adaptation. |
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English |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0002-1121 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4669 |
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| Author |
Graß, R.; Thies, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Wachendorf, M. |
| Title |
Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
| Volume |
70 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-10 |
| Keywords |
Climate change; Double cropping system; Biomass yield; Sowing and; harvesting dates; mean-square error; nitrogen dynamics; wheat production; carbon-dioxide; soil; water; management; sunflower; responses; crops |
| Abstract |
Regionalized model calculations showed increased rainfall and temperatures in winter and less precipitation and higher temperatures in summer due to climate change effects in the future for numerous countries in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, model simulations predicted enhanced weather variability with an increased risk of yield losses and reduced yield stability. Recently, double cropping systems (DCS) were suggested as an environmental friendly and productive adaptation strategy with increased yield stability. This paper reviews the potential benefit of four DCS (rye (Secale cereale L.) as first crop and maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sorghum (Sorghum sudanense L. x Sorghum bicolor L.) and sudan grass (S. sudanense L.) as second crops) in comparison with four conventional sole cropping systems (SCS) (maize, sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass) with regard to dry matter (DM) yield and soil water under conditions of climate change. We used the agro-ecosystem model HERMES for simulating these variables until the year 2100. The investigated crops sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass were parameterised first for HERMES achieving a satisfying performance. Results showed always higher DM yields per year of DCS compared with SCS. This was mainly caused by yield increases of the first crop winter rye harvested at the stage of milk ripeness. As a winter hardy crop, rye will benefit from increased precipitation and higher temperatures during winter months as well as from extended growth periods with an earlier onset in spring and an increase of growing days. Furthermore, rye is able to use the increased winter humidity for its spring growth in an efficient way. By contrast, model simulations showed that summer crops will be affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures during summer month for periods from 2050 onwards with the consequence of reduced yields. This yield reduction was found for all summer crops both in conventional sole crop and in DCS. Preponed harvesting of first crop winter rye as a consequence of earlier onset of growth period in spring under prospective climatic conditions lead to yield decrease, which could not be equalised by preponed sowing of second crops and extension of their growth period. Hence, total annual yield of both crops together decreased. The modification of sowing and harvesting dates as an adaptation strategy requires further research with the use of more holistic simulation models. To summarize, DCS may provide a promising adaptation strategy to effects of climate change with a substantial stabilisation of crop yields. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1161-0301 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4659 |
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| Author |
Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A. |
| Title |
Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
156-176 |
| Keywords |
land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region |
| Abstract |
An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0002-1121 |
ISBN |
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Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4652 |
| Permanent link to this record |
