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Author |
von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H. |
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Title  |
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
3-3 |
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Keywords |
Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future |
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Abstract |
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales. |
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2016-10-31 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0169-5150 |
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Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4822 |
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Author |
De Swaef, T.; Bellocchi, G.; Aper, J.; Lootens, P.; Roldan-Ruiz, I. |
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Title |
Use of identifiability analysis in designing phenotyping experiments for modelling forage production and quality |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
70 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
2587-2604 |
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Keywords |
Breeding; grassland modelling; identifiability analysis; perennial; ryegrass; phenotyping; sensitivity analysis; pasture simulation-model; practical identifiability; crop; water; parameters; systems; carbon; uncertainty; sensitivity; emissions |
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Abstract |
Agricultural systems models are complex and tend to be over-parameterized with respect to observational datasets. Practical identifiability analysis based on local sensitivity analysis has proved effective in investigating identifiable parameter sets in environmental models, but has not been applied to agricultural systems models. Here, we demonstrate that identifiability analysis improves experimental design to ensure independent parameter estimation for yield and quality outputs of a complex grassland model. The Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of practical identifiability analysis in designing experiments and measurement protocols within phe-notyping experiments with perennial ryegrass. Virtual experiments were designed combining three factors: frequency of measurements, duration of the experiment. and location of trials. Our results demonstrate that (i) PaSim provides sufficient detail in terms of simulating biomass yield and quality of perennial ryegrass for use in breeding, (ii) typical breeding trials are insufficient to parameterize all influential parameters, (iii) the frequency of measurements is more important than the number of growing seasons to improve the identifiability of PaSim parameters, and (iv) identifiability analysis provides a sound approach for optimizing the design of multi-location trials. Practical identifiability analysis can play an important role in ensuring proper exploitation of phenotypic data and cost-effective multi-location experimental designs. Considering the growing importance of simulation models, this study supports the design of experiments and measurement protocols in the phenotyping networks that have recently been organized. |
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2020-02-14 |
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0022-0957 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5231 |
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Author |
Sándor, R.; Ma, S.; Acutis, M.; Barcza, Z.; Ben Touhami, H.; Doro, L.; Hidy, D.; Köchy, M.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Minet, J.; Perego, A.; Rolinski, S.; Ruget, F.; Seddaiu, G.; Wu, L.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon–water fluxes from grasslands under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
49-51 |
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Keywords |
grassland productivity; carbon balance; model simulation; uncertainty; sensitivity |
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English |
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ISSN |
2040-4700 |
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Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4651 |
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Author |
D’Ottavio, P.; Francioni, M.; Trozzo, L.; Sedic, E.; Budimir, K.; Avanzolini, P.; Trombetta, M.F.; Porqueddu, C.; Santilocchi, R.; Toderi, M. |
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Title |
Trends and approaches in the analysis of ecosystem services provided by grazing systems: A review |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Grass and Forage Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Grass Forage Sci. |
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Volume |
73 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
15-25 |
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Keywords |
climate regulation; food, habitat services; land degradation prevention; moderation of extreme events; natural (landscape) heritage; primary production; regulation of water flows; water quality regulation; Grassland Management; Plant-Communities; Land Degradation; Inner-Mongolia; Trade-Offs; Biodiversity; Provision; Impact; Consequences; Conservation |
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Abstract |
The ecosystem services (ES) approach is a framework for describing the benefits of nature to human well-being, and this has become a popular instrument for assessment and evaluation of ecosystems and their functions. Grazing lands can provide a wide array of ES that depend on their management practices and intensity. This article reviews the trends and approaches used in the analysis of some relevant ES provided by grazing systems, in line with the framework principles of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The scientific literature provides reports of many studies on ES in general, but the search here focused on grazing systems, which returned only sixty-two papers. This review of published papers highlights that: (i) in some papers, the concept of ES as defined by the MA is misunderstood (e.g., lack of anthropocentric vision); (ii) 34% of the papers dealt only with one ES, which neglects the need for the multisectoral approach suggested by the MA; (iii) few papers included stakeholder involvement to improve local decision-making processes; (iv) cultural ES have been poorly studied despite being considered the most relevant for local and general stakeholders; and (v) stakeholder awareness of well-being as provided by ES in grazing systems can foster both agri-environmental schemes and the willingness to pay for these services. |
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Address |
2018-03-02 |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0142-5242 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Review |
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Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5191 |
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Author |
Van Oijen, M.; Höglind, M. |
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Title |
Toward a Bayesian procedure for using process-based models in plant breeding, with application to ideotype design |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Euphytica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Euphytica |
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Volume |
207 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
627-643 |
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Keywords |
BASGRA; cold tolerance; genotype-environment interaction; plant breeding; process-based modelling; yield stability; grassland productivity; timothy regrowth; climate-change; water-deficit; forest models; late blight; leaf-area; calibration; growth; tolerance |
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Abstract |
Process-based grassland models (PBMs) simulate growth and development of vegetation over time. The models tend to have a large number of parameters that represent properties of the plants. To simulate different cultivars of the same species, different parameter values are required. Parameter differences may be interpreted as genetic variation for plant traits. Despite this natural connection between PBMs and plant genetics, there are only few examples of successful use of PBMs in plant breeding. Here we present a new procedure by which PBMs can help design ideotypes, i.e. virtual cultivars that optimally combine properties of existing cultivars. Ideotypes constitute selection targets for breeding. The procedure consists of four steps: (1) Bayesian calibration of model parameters using data from cultivar trials, (2) Estimating genetic variation for parameters from the combination of cultivar-specific calibrated parameter distributions, (3) Identifying parameter combinations that meet breeding objectives, (4) Translating model results to practice, i.e. interpreting parameters in terms of practical selection criteria. We show an application of the procedure to timothy (Phleum pratense L.) as grown in different regions of Norway. |
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Address |
2016-10-31 |
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Thesis |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0014-2336 |
ISBN |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4820 |
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