| Records |
| Author |
Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A. |
| Title |
Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year  |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
156-176 |
| Keywords |
land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region |
| Abstract |
An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability. |
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| ISSN |
0002-1121 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4652 |
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| Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
| Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
| Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
| Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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| ISSN |
0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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| Author |
Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C. |
| Title |
Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Volume |
81 |
Issue |
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Pages |
236-249 |
| Keywords |
Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration |
| Abstract |
► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. |
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0040-1625 |
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CropM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4518 |
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| Author |
Fürst, C.; Helming, K.; Lorz, C.; Müller, F.; Verburg, P.H. |
| Title |
Integrated land use and regional resource management--a cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
| Volume |
127 Suppl |
Issue |
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Pages |
S1-S5 |
| Keywords |
Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Analytical framework for integrated planning; Integrated land use; Regional planning; Regional resource management; Sustainable regional development |
| Abstract |
Our paper introduces objectives and ideas of the special issue “Integrated land use and regional resource management – A cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources” and provides an overview on the contributions of the single papers in the special issue to this topic. Furthermore, we discuss and present major challenges and demands on integrated land use and regional resource management and we come up with an analytical framework how to correspond these demands. |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4826 |
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| Author |
Humblot, P.; Jayet, P.A.; Clerino, P.; Leconte-Demarsy, D.; Szopa, S.; Castell, J.F. |
| Title |
Assessment of ozone impacts on farming systems: a bio-economic modeling approach applied to the widely diverse French case |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
| Volume |
85 |
Issue |
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Pages |
50-58 |
| Keywords |
ozone; bio-economic modeling; agricultural production; land use; greenhouse gas; carbon sequestration; abatement costs; climate-change; crops; agriculture; eu; emissions; benefits; level |
| Abstract |
As a result of anthropogenic activities, ozone is produced in the surface atmosphere, causing direct damage to plants and reducing crop yields. By combining a biophysical crop model with an economic supply model we were able to predict and quantify this effect at a fine spatial resolution. We applied our approach to the very varied French case and showed that ozone has significant productivity and land-use effects. A comparison of moderate and high ozone scenarios for 2030 shows that wheat production may decrease by more than 30% and barley production may increase by more than 14% as surface ozone concentration increases. These variations are due to the direct effect of ozone on yields as well as to modifications in land use caused by a shift toward more ozone-resistant crops: our study predicts a 16% increase in the barley-growing area and an equal decrease in the wheat-growing area. Moreover, mean agricultural gross margin losses can go as high as 2.5% depending on the ozone scenario, and can reach 7% in some particularly affected regions. A rise in ozone concentration was also associated with a reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions of about 2%, as a result of decreased use of nitrogen fertilizers. One noteworthy result was that major impacts, including changes in land use, do not necessarily occur in ozone high concentration zones, and may strongly depend on farm systems and their adaptation capability. Our study suggests that policy makers should view ozone pollution as a major potential threat to agricultural yields. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8009 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4604 |
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