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Tao, F.; Palosuo, T.; Roetter, R.P.; Hernandez Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cammarano, D.; Specka, X.; Nendel, C.; Srivastava, A.K.; Ewert, F.; Padovan, G.; Ferrise, R.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Dibari, C.; Schulman, A.H. |
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Title |
Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2020 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
281 |
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Pages |
107851 |
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Keywords |
agriculture; climate change; crop growth simulation; impact; model; improvement; uncertainty; air CO2 enrichment; elevated CO2; wheat growth; nitrogen dynamics; simulation-models; field experiment; atmospheric CO2; rice phenology; temperature; uncertainty |
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Robust projections of climate impact on crop growth and productivity by crop models are key to designing effective adaptations to cope with future climate risk. However, current crop models diverge strongly in their climate impact projections. Previous studies tried to compare or improve crop models regarding the impact of one single climate variable. However, this approach is insufficient, considering that crop growth and yield are affected by the interactive impacts of multiple climate change factors and multiple interrelated biophysical processes. Here, a new comprehensive analysis was conducted to look holistically at the reasons why crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections and to investigate which biophysical processes and knowledge gaps are key factors affecting this uncertainty and should be given the highest priorities for improvement. First, eight barley models and eight climate projections for the 2050s were applied to investigate the uncertainty from crop model structure in climate impact projections for barley growth and yield at two sites: Jokioinen, Finland (Boreal) and Lleida, Spain (Mediterranean). Sensitivity analyses were then conducted on the responses of major crop processes to major climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, irradiation, and CO2, as well as their interactions, for each of the eight crop models. The results showed that the temperature and CO2 relationships in the models were the major sources of the large discrepancies among the models in climate impact projections. In particular, the impacts of increases in temperature and CO2 on leaf area development were identified as the major causes for the large uncertainty in simulating changes in evapotranspiration, above-ground biomass, and grain yield. Our findings highlight that advancements in understanding the basic processes and thresholds by which climate warming and CO2 increases will affect leaf area development, crop evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, and grain formation in contrasting environments are needed for modeling their impacts. |
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2020-06-08 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5232 |
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Stratonovitch, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3599-3609 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Europe; Flowers/*physiology; *Hot Temperature; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Time Factors; Triticum/*growth & development/*physiology; Downscaling; LARS-WG weather generator; Sirius wheat model.; heat stress; ideotype design; impact assessment |
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To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4578 |
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Author |
Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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12 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
054023 |
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Keywords |
heat stress; climate change impact assessment; irrigation; canopy temperature; CANOPY TEMPERATURE; WINTER-WHEAT; WATER-STRESS; CROP YIELDS; GROWTH; MAIZE; DROUGHT; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY |
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Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation. |
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2017-06-22 |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5035 |
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Author |
Siebert, S.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Future crop production threatened by extreme heat |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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9 |
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4 |
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Keywords |
climate-change; simulation-models; wheat yields; day length; temperature; growth; impact; co2; phenology; patterns |
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Heat is considered to be a major stress limiting crop growth and yields. While important findings on the impact of heat on crop yield have been made based on experiments in controlled environments, little is known about the effects under field conditions at larger scales. The study of Deryng et al (2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011), analysing the impact of heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soya bean under climate change, represents an important contribution to this emerging research field. Uncertainties in the occurrence of heat stress under field conditions, plant responses to heat and appropriate adaptation measures still need further investigation. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4813 |
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Author |
Siczek, A.; Horn, R.; Lipiec, J.; Usowicz, B.; Łukowski, M. |
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Title |
Effects of soil deformation and surface mulching on soil physical properties and soybean response related to weather conditions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Soil and Tillage Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Soil and Tillage Research |
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153 |
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175-184 |
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Keywords |
straw mulch; soil temperature; soil matric potential; soil penetration resistance; soybean biomass; seed and protein yield; water productivity; bulk-density; management-practices; crop production; n-2 fixation; compaction; growth; nitrogen; yield; straw; temperature |
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A field experiment was conducted on Haplic Luvisol developed from loess to assess the effects of soil deformation and straw mulch on soil water status (matric potential), temperature, penetration resistance, soybean growth, seed yield and yield components including straw, protein and oil in 2006-2008. Water use efficiencies related to the amount of rainfall during the growing seasons were calculated for seeds and total above ground biomass. The soil deformation levels (main plots) comprised the following trials: non-compacted (NC, 0 tractor pass), moderately compacted (MC, 3 passes), and strongly compacted (SC, 5 passes). A uniform seedbed in all plots was prepared by harrowing before planting. The main plots included sub-plots without and with surface wheat straw mulch (0.5 kg m(-2)) and the corresponding trials were NC + M, MC + M, SC + M. The amount and distribution of rainfall during the growing season differed among the experimental years with extended drought at bloom-full seed (R2-R6) stages in 2006, good water supply in 2007, and alternative periods with relatively high and low rainfalls in 2008. The effect of soil deformation on matric potential was influenced by weather conditions, soybean growth phase, mulching and depth. The differences were greatest in 2007 and 2008 at R7-R8 growth stages. With increasing deformation level from NC to SC matric potential for 0-15 cm depth during these stages significantly decreased from -401 to -1184 kPa in 2007 and from -1154 to -1432 kPa in 2008. On mulched soil, the corresponding ranges were from -541 to -841 klpa and from -748 to -1386 kPa, respectively. In the dry summer 2006, the differences were smaller and less consistent. Irrespective of soil deformation level, mulching reduced soil temperature in most growth phases but most pronounced initially. Most yield components increased from NC to MC during the experiments which could be attributed to enhanced root water and nutrient uptake rates and decreased from MC to SC due to high soil strength that restrained root growth down to deeper depth. The yields of seeds, straw, protein and oil as well as water productivity of soybean seed and biomass were improved by mulching in 2007-2008. This improvement was more pronounced in 2007 when the mean yield of seeds, protein and oil were significantly greater by 16, 29 and 11%, respectively and was attributed to positive alterations in soil water retention. These results indicate the possibilities of improvement in soybean performance by identifying allowable amount of traffic and mulching practices at planting depending on weather fluctuations during the growing season. Since rainfall and air temperature distribution in 2007 are close to those averaged over a long period of time, the use of straw mulch may positively affect soybean performance and yields excluding anomalously dry years. The positive effect of straw mulch can be enhanced by moderate soil deformation combined with seedbed loosening before planting to avoid constraining effect of soil structure on crop establishment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0167-1987 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4732 |
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