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Hlavinka, P.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Dubrovský, M.; Fischer, M.; Pohanková, E.; Balek, J.; Žalud, Z.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Water balance, drought stress and yields for rainfed field crop rotations under present and future conditions in the Czech Republic |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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Pages |
175-192 |
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Keywords |
crop growth model; evapotranspiration; soil; climate change; climate-change scenarios; spring barley; wheat production; winter-wheat; model; impacts; europe; uncertainties; simulation; strategies |
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Continuous crop rotation modeling is a prospective trend that, compared to 1-crop or discrete year-by-year calculations, can provide more accurate results that are closer to real conditions. The goal of this study was to compare the water balance and yields estimated by the HERMES crop rotation model for present and future climatic conditions in the Czech Republic. Three locations were selected, representing important agricultural regions with different climatic conditions. Crop rotation (spring barley, silage maize, winter wheat, winter rape) was simulated from 1981-2080. The 1981-2010 period was covered by measured meteorological data, while 2011-2080 was represented by a transient synthetic weather series from the weather generator M& Rfi. The data were based on 5 circulation models, representing an ensemble of 18 CMIP3 global circulation models, to preserve much of the uncertainty of the original ensemble. Two types of crop management were compared, and the influences of soil quality, increasing atmospheric CO2 and adaptation measures (i. e. sowing date changes) were also considered. Results suggest that under a ‘dry’ scenario (such as GFCM21), C-3 crops in drier regions will be devastated for a significant number of seasons. Negative impacts are likely even on premium-quality soils regardless of flexible sowing dates and accounting for increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, in dry conditions, the use of crop rotations with catch crops may have negative impacts, exacerbating the soil water deficit for subsequent crops. This approach is a promising method for determining how various management strategies and crop rotations can affect yields as well as water, carbon and nitrogen cycling. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4663 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
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61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
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Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
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Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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0139-570x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4644 |
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Sanz-Cobena, A.; García-Marco, S.; Quemada, M.; Gabriel, J.L.; Almendros, P.; Vallejo, A. |
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Title |
Do cover crops enhance N2O, CO2 or CH4 emissions from soil in Mediterranean arable systems? |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Science of the Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of the Total Environment |
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466-467 |
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164-174 |
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Agriculture/*methods; Air Pollutants/*metabolism; Brassica napus/growth & development/metabolism; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/*metabolism; Gases/metabolism; Greenhouse Effect; Hordeum/growth & development/metabolism; Manure/*analysis; Nitrogen/metabolism; Nitrogen Dioxide/metabolism; Spain; Vicia/growth & development/metabolism; Zea mays/growth & development; Cover crops; GHG emissions; Green manure; Irrigation; Maize |
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This study evaluates the effect of planting three cover crops (CCs) (barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; vetch, Vicia villosa L.; rape, Brassica napus L.) on the direct emission of N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4) in the intercrop period and the impact of incorporating these CCs on the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from the forthcoming irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) crop. Vetch and barley were the CCs with the highest N(2)O and CO(2) losses (75 and 47% increase compared with the control, respectively) in the fallow period. In all cases, fluxes of N(2)O were increased through N fertilization and the incorporation of barley and rape residues (40 and 17% increase, respectively). The combination of a high C:N ratio with the addition of an external source of mineral N increased the fluxes of N(2)O compared with -Ba and -Rp. The direct emissions of N(2)O were lower than expected for a fertilized crop (0.10% emission factor, EF) compared with other studies and the IPCC EF. These results are believed to be associated with a decreased NO(3)(-) pool due to highly denitrifying conditions and increased drainage. The fluxes of CO(2) were in the range of other fertilized crops (i.e., 1118.71-1736.52 kg CO(2)-Cha(-1)). The incorporation of CC residues enhanced soil respiration in the range of 21-28% for barley and rape although no significant differences between treatments were detected. Negative CH(4) fluxes were measured and displayed an overall sink effect for all incorporated CC (mean values of -0.12 and -0.10 kg CH(4)-Cha(-1) for plots with and without incorporated CCs, respectively). |
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0048-9697 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4639 |
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Nendel, C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mirschel, W.; Wenkel, K.O. |
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Testing farm management options as climate change adaptation strategies using the MONICA model |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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52 |
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47-56 |
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Keywords |
simulation model; climate change; crop management; adaptation strategies; nitrogen dynamics; carbon sequestration; crop productivity; simulation-model; change impacts; land-use; agriculture; scenarios; growth; yield |
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Adaptation of agriculture to climate change will be driven at the farm level in first place. The MONICA model was employed in four different modelling exercises for demonstration and testing different management options for farmers in Germany to adjust their production system. 30-Year simulations were run for the periods 1996-2025 and 2056-2085 using future climate data generated by a statistical method on the basis of measured data from 1961 to 2000 and the A1B scenario of the IPCC (2007a). Crop rotation designs that are expected to become possible in the future due to a prolonged vegetation period and at the same time shortened cereal growth period were tested for their likely success. The model suggested that a spring barley succeeding a winter barley may be successfully grown in the second half of the century, allowing for a larger yields by intensification of the cropping cycle. Growing a winter wheat after a sugar beet may lead to future problems as late sowing makes the winter wheat grow into periods prone to drought. Irrigation is projected to considerably improve and stabilise the yields of late cereals and of shallow rooting crops (maize and pea) on sandy soils in the continental climate part of Germany, but not in the humid West. Nitrogen fertiliser management needs to be adjusted to increasing or decreasing yield expectations and for decreasing soil moisture. On soils containing sufficient amounts of Moisture and soil organic matter, enhanced mineralisation is expected to compensate for a greater N demand. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4631 |
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Author |
Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cermák, P.; Pohanková, E.; Orság, M.; Pokorný, E.; Fischer, M.; Brtnický, M.; Žalud, Z. |
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Modelling of yields and soil nitrogen dynamics for crop rotations by HERMES under different climate and soil conditions in the Czech Republic |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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152 |
Issue |
02 |
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188-204 |
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winter oilseed rape; spring barley; central-europe; growth; simulation; wheat; adaptation; impact; water; agriculture |
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The crop growth model HERMES was used to model crop rotation cycles at 12 experimental sites in the Czech Republic. A wide range of crops (spring and winter barley, winter wheat, maize, potatoes, sugar beet, winter rape, oats, alfalfa and grass), cultivated between 1981 and 2009 under various soil and climatic conditions, were included. The model was able to estimate the yields of field crop rotations at a reasonable level, with an index of agreement (IA) ranging from 0.82 to 0.96 for the calibration database (the median coefficient of determination (R-2) was 0.71), while IA for verification varied from 0.62 to 0.93 (median R-2 was 0.78). Grass yields were also estimated at a reasonable level of accuracy. The estimates were less accurate for the above-ground biomass at harvest (the medians for IA were 0.76 and 0.72 for calibration and verification, respectively, and analogous medians of R-2 were 0.50 and 0.49). The soil mineral nitrogen (N) content under the field crops was simulated with good precision, with the IA ranging from 0.49 to 0.74 for calibration and from 0.43 to 0.68 for verification. Generally, the soil mineral N was underestimated, and more accurate results were achieved at locations with intensive fertilization. Simulated yields, soil N, water and organic carbon (C) contents were compared with long-term field measurements at Ne. mc. ice, located within the fertile Moravian lowland. At this station, all of the observed parameters were reproduced with a reasonable level of accuracy. In the case of the organic C content, HERMES reproduced a decrease ranging from c. 85 to 77 tonnes (t)/ha (for the 0-0.3 m soil layer) between the years 1980 and 2007. In spite of its relatively simple approach and restricted input data, HERMES was proven to be robust across various conditions, which is a precondition for its future use for both theoretical and practical purposes. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4626 |
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