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Author |
Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Verhagen, J.; Wolf, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
48 |
Issue |
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Pages |
30-42 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; climate change; impact; crop production; wheat; onion; potato; sugar beet; crop production; change impacts; agriculture; variability; events; europe; model |
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Abstract |
In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level. To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050. For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 degrees C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 degrees C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective. Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4809 |
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Author |
Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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Keywords |
climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Abstract |
Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4800 |
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Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cermák, P.; Pohanková, E.; Orság, M.; Pokorný, E.; Fischer, M.; Brtnický, M.; Žalud, Z. |
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Title |
Modelling of yields and soil nitrogen dynamics for crop rotations by HERMES under different climate and soil conditions in the Czech Republic |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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152 |
Issue |
02 |
Pages |
188-204 |
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Keywords |
winter oilseed rape; spring barley; central-europe; growth; simulation; wheat; adaptation; impact; water; agriculture |
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Abstract |
The crop growth model HERMES was used to model crop rotation cycles at 12 experimental sites in the Czech Republic. A wide range of crops (spring and winter barley, winter wheat, maize, potatoes, sugar beet, winter rape, oats, alfalfa and grass), cultivated between 1981 and 2009 under various soil and climatic conditions, were included. The model was able to estimate the yields of field crop rotations at a reasonable level, with an index of agreement (IA) ranging from 0.82 to 0.96 for the calibration database (the median coefficient of determination (R-2) was 0.71), while IA for verification varied from 0.62 to 0.93 (median R-2 was 0.78). Grass yields were also estimated at a reasonable level of accuracy. The estimates were less accurate for the above-ground biomass at harvest (the medians for IA were 0.76 and 0.72 for calibration and verification, respectively, and analogous medians of R-2 were 0.50 and 0.49). The soil mineral nitrogen (N) content under the field crops was simulated with good precision, with the IA ranging from 0.49 to 0.74 for calibration and from 0.43 to 0.68 for verification. Generally, the soil mineral N was underestimated, and more accurate results were achieved at locations with intensive fertilization. Simulated yields, soil N, water and organic carbon (C) contents were compared with long-term field measurements at Ne. mc. ice, located within the fertile Moravian lowland. At this station, all of the observed parameters were reproduced with a reasonable level of accuracy. In the case of the organic C content, HERMES reproduced a decrease ranging from c. 85 to 77 tonnes (t)/ha (for the 0-0.3 m soil layer) between the years 1980 and 2007. In spite of its relatively simple approach and restricted input data, HERMES was proven to be robust across various conditions, which is a precondition for its future use for both theoretical and practical purposes. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4626 |
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Author |
Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Ferrandis, S.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Assessing the potential of an algorithm based on mean climatic data to predict wheat yield |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Precision Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Precision Agric. |
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Volume |
15 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
255-272 |
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Keywords |
stics model; yield prediction; real-time; proxy-sensing; stochastic weather generator; crop yield; mediterranean environment; simulation-model; variability; nitrogen; ensembles; forecasts; demeter; europe |
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Abstract |
The real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction is one of the major challenges in agriculture. An interesting approach lies in using process-based crop yield models in combination with real-time monitoring of the input climatic data of these models, but unknown future weather remains the main obstacle to reliable yield prediction. Since accurate weather forecasts can be made only a short time in advance, much information can be derived from analyzing past weather data. This paper presents a methodology that addresses the problem of unknown future weather by using a daily mean climatic database, based exclusively on available past measurements. It involves building climate matrix ensembles, combining different time ranges of projected mean climate data and real measured weather data originating from the historical database or from real-time measurements performed in the field. Used as an input for the STICS crop model, the datasets thus computed were used to perform statistical within-season biomass and yield prediction. This work demonstrated that a reliable predictive delay of 3-4 weeks could be obtained. In combination with a local micrometeorological station that monitors climate data in real-time, the approach also enabled us to (i) predict potential yield at the local level, (ii) detect stress occurrence and (iii) quantify yield loss (or gain) drawing on real monitored climatic conditions of the previous few days. |
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1385-2256 1573-1618 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4621 |
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Author |
Lorite, I.J.; García-Vila, M.; Santos, C.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Fereres, E. |
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Title |
AquaData and AquaGIS: Two computer utilities for temporal and spatial simulations of water-limited yield with AquaCrop |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
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Volume |
96 |
Issue |
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227-237 |
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Keywords |
software tool; aquacrop; crop simulation model; geographic information system; spatial aggregation; fao crop model; irrigation management; iberian peninsula; southern spain; climate models; impacts; program; europe; system |
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The crop simulation model AquaCrop, recently developed by FAO can be used for a wide range of purposes. However, in its present form, its use over large areas or for applications that require a large number of simulations runs (e.g., long-term analysis), is not practical without developing software to facilitate such applications. Two tools for managing the inputs and outputs of AquaCrop, named AquaData and AquaGIS, have been developed for this purpose and are presented here. Both software utilities have been programmed in Delphi v. 5 and in addition, AquaGIS requires the Geographic Information System (GIS) programming tool MapObjects. These utilities allow the efficient management of input and output files, along with a GIS module to develop spatial analysis and effect spatial visualization of the results, facilitating knowledge dissemination. A sample of application of the utilities is given here, as an AquaCrop simulation analysis of impact of climate change on wheat yield in Southern Spain, which requires extensive input data preparation and output processing. The use of AquaCrop without the two utilities would have required approximately 1000 h of work, while the utilization of AquaData and AquaGIS reduced that time by more than 99%. Furthermore, the use of GIS, made it possible to perform a spatial analysis of the results, thus providing a new option to extend the use of the AquaCrop model to scales requiring spatial and temporal analyses. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1699 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4609 |
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