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Lorite, I.J.; García-Vila, M.; Santos, C.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Fereres, E. |
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Title |
AquaData and AquaGIS: Two computer utilities for temporal and spatial simulations of water-limited yield with AquaCrop |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
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Volume |
96 |
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Pages |
227-237 |
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Keywords |
software tool; aquacrop; crop simulation model; geographic information system; spatial aggregation; fao crop model; irrigation management; iberian peninsula; southern spain; climate models; impacts; program; europe; system |
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The crop simulation model AquaCrop, recently developed by FAO can be used for a wide range of purposes. However, in its present form, its use over large areas or for applications that require a large number of simulations runs (e.g., long-term analysis), is not practical without developing software to facilitate such applications. Two tools for managing the inputs and outputs of AquaCrop, named AquaData and AquaGIS, have been developed for this purpose and are presented here. Both software utilities have been programmed in Delphi v. 5 and in addition, AquaGIS requires the Geographic Information System (GIS) programming tool MapObjects. These utilities allow the efficient management of input and output files, along with a GIS module to develop spatial analysis and effect spatial visualization of the results, facilitating knowledge dissemination. A sample of application of the utilities is given here, as an AquaCrop simulation analysis of impact of climate change on wheat yield in Southern Spain, which requires extensive input data preparation and output processing. The use of AquaCrop without the two utilities would have required approximately 1000 h of work, while the utilization of AquaData and AquaGIS reduced that time by more than 99%. Furthermore, the use of GIS, made it possible to perform a spatial analysis of the results, thus providing a new option to extend the use of the AquaCrop model to scales requiring spatial and temporal analyses. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1699 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4609 |
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Author |
Zhao, G.; Siebert, S.; Enders, A.; Rezaei, E.E.; Yan, C.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Demand for multi-scale weather data for regional crop modeling |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
200 |
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156-171 |
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multi-scale; spatial heterogeneity; spatial resolution; crop model; climate variability; climate-change scenarios; integrated assessment; large-scale; phenological development; agricultural systems; spatial-resolution; data aggregation; european-union; winter-wheat; input data |
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A spatial resolution needs to be determined prior to using models to simulate crop yields at a regional scale, but a dilemma exists in compromising between different demands. A fine spatial resolution demands extensive computation load for input data assembly, model runs, and output analysis. A coarse spatial resolution could result in loss of spatial detail in variability. This paper studied the impact of spatial resolution, data aggregation and spatial heterogeneity of weather data on simulations of crop yields, thus providing guidelines for choosing a proper spatial resolution for simulations of crop yields at regional scale. Using a process-based crop model SIMPLACE (LINTUL2) and daily weather data at 1 km resolution we simulated a continuous rainfed winter wheat cropping system at the national scale of Germany. Then we aggregated the weather data to four resolutions from 10 to 100 km, repeated the simulation, compared them with the 1 km results, and correlated the difference with the intra-pixel heterogeneity quantified by an ensemble of four semivariogram models. Aggregation of weather data had small effects over regions with a flat terrain located in northern Germany, but large effects over southern regions with a complex topography. The spatial distribution of yield bias at different spatial resolutions was consistent with the intra-pixel spatial heterogeneity of the terrain and a log-log linear relationship between them was established. By using this relationship we demonstrated the way to optimize the model resolution to minimize both the number of simulation runs and the expected loss of spatial detail in variability due to aggregation effects. We concluded that a high spatial resolution is desired for regions with high spatial environmental heterogeneity, and vice versa. This calls for the development of multi-scale approaches in regional and global crop modeling. The obtained results require substantiation for other production situations, crops, output variables and for different crop models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4753 |
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Author |
Montesino-San Martín, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
A genotype, environment and management (GxExM) analysis of adaptation in winter wheat to climate change in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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187 |
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1-13 |
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Keywords |
Winter wheat; Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Europe; food security; model hadgem1; physical-properties; regional climate; change impacts; field-scale; land-use; yield; nitrogen; variability |
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Wheat yields in Europe have shown stagnating trends during the last two decades, partly attributed to climate change. Such developments challenge the needs for increased production, in particular at higher latitudes, to meet increasing global demands and expected productivity reductions at lower latitudes. Climate change projections from three General Circulation Models or GCMs (UKMO-HadGEM1, INM-GM3.0 and CSIRO-Mk3.1) for the A1FI SIZES emission scenario for 2000 to 2100 were downscaled at a northern latitude location (Foulum, Denmark) using LARS-WG5.3. The scenarios accounted for changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three temperature-variability scenarios were included assuming different levels of decreased temperature variability in winter and increased in summer. Crop yield was simulated for the different climate change scenarios by a calibrated version of AFRCWHEAT2 to model several combinations of genotypes (varying in crop growth, development and tolerance to water and nitrogen scarcity) and management (sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization rate). The simulations showed a slight improvement of grain yields (0.3-1.2 Mg ha(-1)) in the medium-term (2030-2050), but not enough to cope with expected increases in demand for food and feed. Optimum management added up to 1.8 Mg ha(-1). Genetic modifications regarding winter wheat crop development exhibit the greatest sensitivity to climate and larger potential for improvement (+3.8 Mg ha(-1)). The results consistently points towards need for cultivars with a longer reproductive phases (2.9-7.5% per 1 degrees C) and lower photoperiod sensitivities. Due to the positive synergies between several genotypic characteristics, multiple-target breeding programmes would be necessary, possibly assisted by model-based assessments of optimal phenotypic characteristics. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4630 |
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Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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103-113 |
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Keywords |
climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
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Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4492 |
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Author |
Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Theor. Appl. Climatol. |
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113 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
445-455 |
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Keywords |
stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves |
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We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level. |
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0177-798x 1434-4483 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4484 |
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