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Author |
Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
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Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
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Volume |
5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
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Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
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Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
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2020-02-14 |
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English |
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ISSN  |
2375-2548 |
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Article |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
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Author |
Fan, F.; Henriksen, C.B.; Porter, J. |
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Title |
Long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ecosystem services – a model simulation case study and on-farm case study in Denmark |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
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Volume |
42 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
504-529 |
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Keywords |
Long-term; conversion; economic value; ecosystem services; organic farming; agricultural policytrade-offs; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Former Arable Soils; Daisy Model; Crop; Production; Conventional Agriculture; Straw Incorporation; Production; Systems; Nitrogen Dynamics; Climate-Change; Water-Balance |
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Abstract |
Organic agriculture aims to produce food while establishing an ecological balance to augment ecosystem services (ES) and has been rapidly expanding in the world since the 1980s. Recently, however, in several European countries, including Denmark, organic farmers have converted back to conventional farming. Hence, understanding how agricultural ES are affected by the number of years since conversion to organic farming is imperative for policy makers to guide future agricultural policy. In order to investigate the long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ES we performed i) a model simulation case study by applying the Daisy model to simulate 14 different conversion scenarios for a Danish farm during a 65 year period with increasing number of years under organic farming, and ii) an on-farm case study in Denmark with one conventional farm, one organic farm under conversion, and three organic farms converted 10, 15 and 58 years ago, respectively. Both the model simulation case study and the on-farm case study showed that non-marketable ES values increased with increasing number of years under organic farming. Trade-offs between marketable and non-marketable ES were not evident, since also marketable ES values generally showed an increasing trend, except when the price difference between organic and conventional products in the model simulation study was the smallest, and when an alfalfa pre-crop in the on-farm case study resulted in a significantly higher level of plant available nitrogen, which boosted the yield and the associated marketable ES of the subsequent winter rye crop. These results indicate a possible benefit of preserving long-term organic farms and could be used to argue for agricultural policy interventions to offset further reduction in the number of organic farms or the land area under organic farming. |
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2018-05-03 |
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English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2168-3565 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5198 |
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Author |
Andreoli, V.; Cassardo, C.; Iacona, L.T.; Spanna, F. |
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Title |
Description and Preliminary Simulations with the Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical Model for Estimating Physiological Values (IVINE) |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agronomy |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
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Keywords |
viticulture; crop model; phenology; physiological processes; climate; micrometeorology; microclimate; climate change; water status; balance model; crop; phenology; growth; STICS; implementation; carbon; yield |
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Abstract |
The numerical crop growth model Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical model for Estimating physiological values (IVINE) was developed in order to evaluate environmental forcing effects on vine growth. The IVINE model simulates vine growth processes with parameterizations, allowing the understanding of plant conditions at a vineyard scale. It requires a set of meteorology data and soil water status as boundary conditions. The primary model outputs are main phenological stages, leaf development, yield, and sugar concentration. The model requires setting some variety information depending on the cultivar: At present, IVINE is optimized for Vitis vinifera L. Nebbiolo, a variety grown mostly in the Piedmont region (northwestern Italy). In order to evaluate the model accuracy, IVINE was validated using experimental observations gathered in Piedmontese vineyards, showing performances similar or slightly better than those of other widely used crop models. The results of a sensitivity analysis performed to highlight the effects of the variations of air temperature and soil water potential input variables on IVINE outputs showed that most phenological stages anticipated with increasing temperatures, while berry sugar content saturated at about 25.5 °Bx. Long-term (60 years, in the period 1950–2009) simulations performed over a Piedmontese subregion showed statistically significant variations of most IVINE output variables, with larger time trend slopes referring to the most recent 30-year period (1980–2009), thus confirming that ongoing climate change started influencing Piedmontese vineyards in 1980. |
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Address |
2019-02-21 |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2073-4395 |
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article |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5218 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
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Title |
Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Food and Energy Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Energy Secur. |
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Volume |
2 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
185-196 |
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Keywords |
Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat |
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Abstract |
Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology. |
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English |
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ISSN |
2048-3694 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4505 |
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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecology and Evolution |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Evol. |
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Volume |
3 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
4197-4214 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity |
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Abstract |
THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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English |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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ISSN |
2045-7758 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4576 |
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