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Author Montesino-San Martín, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Can crop-climate models be accurate and precise? A case study for wheat production in Denmark Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  
  Volume 202 Issue Pages (up) 51-60  
  Keywords Uncertainty; Model intercomparison; Bayesian approach; Climate change; Wheat; Denmark; uncertainty analysis; simulation-models; bayesian-approach; change; impact; yields; variability; projections; scale; calibration; framework  
  Abstract Crop models, used to make projections of climate change impacts, differ greatly in structural detail. Complexity of model structure has generic effects on uncertainty and error propagation in climate change impact assessments. We applied Bayesian calibration to three distinctly different empirical and mechanistic wheat models to assess how differences in the extent of process understanding in models affects uncertainties in projected impact. Predictive power of the models was tested via both accuracy (bias) and precision (or tightness of grouping) of yield projections for extrapolated weather conditions. Yields predicted by the mechanistic model were generally more accurate than the empirical models for extrapolated conditions. This trend does not hold for all extrapolations; mechanistic and empirical models responded differently due to their sensitivities to distinct weather features. However, higher accuracy comes at the cost of precision of the mechanistic model to embrace all observations within given boundaries. The approaches showed complementarity in sensitivity to weather variables and in accuracy for different extrapolation domains. Their differences in model precision and accuracy make them suitable for generic model ensembles for near-term agricultural impact assessments of climate change.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4572  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Lardy, R.; Bellocchi, G.; Martin, R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Vuln-Indices: Software to assess vulnerability to climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Computers and Electronics in Agriculture Abbreviated Journal Computers and Electronics in Agriculture  
  Volume 114 Issue Pages (up) 53-57  
  Keywords climate change; Java; vulnerability indices; pasture simulation-model; integrated assessment; environmental-change; change impacts; system  
  Abstract Vuln-Indices Java-based software was developed on concepts of vulnerability to climate change of agro-ecological systems. It implements the calculation of vulnerability indices on series of state variables for assessments at both site and region levels. The tool is useful because synthetic indices help capturing complex processes and prove effective to identify the factors responsible for vulnerability and their relative importance. It is suggested that the tool may be plausible for use with stakeholders to disseminate information of climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0168-1699 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4648  
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Author Jabloun, M.; Schelde, K.; Tao, F.; Olesen, J.E. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Effect of temperature and precipitation on nitrate leaching from organic cereal cropping systems in Denmark Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy  
  Volume 62 Issue Pages (up) 55-64  
  Keywords nitrogen; leaching; organic farming; wheat; barley; climate-change; catch crops; nitrogen mineralization; winter-wheat; arable crop; european agriculture; farming systems; spring barley; cover crops; soil  
  Abstract The effect of variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation on soil water nitrate (NO3-N) concentration and leaching from winter and spring cereals cropping systems was investigated over three consecutive four-year crop rotation cycles from 1997 to 2008 in an organic farming crop rotation experiment in Denmark. Three experimental sites, varying in climate and soil type from coarse sand to sandy loam, were investigated. The experiment included experimental treatments with different rotations, manure rate and cover crop, and soil nitrate concentrations was monitored using suction cups. The effects of climate, soil and management were examined in a linear mixed model, and only parameters with significant effect (P < 0.05) were included in the final model. The model explained 61% and 47% of the variation in the square root transform of flow-weighted annual NO3-N concentration for winter and spring cereals, respectively, and 68% and 77% of the variation in the square root transform of annual NO3-N leaching for winter and spring cereals, respectively. Nitrate concentration and leaching were shown to be site specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. There were significant effects on annual N concentration and NO3-N leaching of location, rotation, previous crop and crop cover during autumn and winter. The relative effects of temperature and precipitation differed between seasons and cropping systems. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted N concentration and leaching increased with increases in temperature and precipitation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4562  
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Author Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Kros, J.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Britz, W.; Reinds, G.J.; Ewert, F.; de Vries, W. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems  
  Volume 140 Issue Pages (up) 56-73  
  Keywords agriculture; capri; climate change; environmental impact; farming system; fssim; integrated assessment; integrator; model linkage; n emission; price change; scenarios; simplace; technological change; crop simulation-models; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; growth; strategies; nitrogen; soils; environment; scenarios; emissions  
  Abstract In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenees, Zachodniopomorsld and Andalucia). These analyses Were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenees, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.  
  Address 2015-10-12  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4703  
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Author Murat, M.; Malinowska, I.; Hoffmann, H.; Baranowski, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Statistical modelling of agrometeorological time series by exponential smoothing Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication International Agrophysics Abbreviated Journal International Agrophysics  
  Volume 30 Issue 1 Pages (up) 57-65  
  Keywords exponential smoothing; meteorological time series; statistical forecasting; daily temperature records; weighted moving averages; climate-change; prediction; forecasts; state; weather  
  Abstract Meteorological time series are used in modelling agrophysical processes of the soil-plant-atmosphere system which determine plant growth and yield. Additionally, longterm meteorological series are used in climate change scenarios. Such studies often require forecasting or projection of meteorological variables, eg the projection of occurrence of the extreme events. The aim of the article was to determine the most suitable exponential smoothing models to generate forecast using data on air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation time series in Jokioinen (Finland), Dikopshof (Germany), Lleida (Spain), and Lublin (Poland). These series exhibit regular additive seasonality or non-seasonality without any trend, which is confirmed by their autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation functions. The most suitable models were indicated by the smallest mean absolute error and the smallest root mean squared error.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0236-8722 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4728  
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