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Author |
Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Agricultural Impacts: Robust uncertainty |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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Volume |
4 |
Issue |
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Pages  |
251-252 |
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Keywords |
climate-change |
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Abstract |
THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 x 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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Editorial Material |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4501 |
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Author |
Lorite, I.J.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Belaj, A.; de la Rosa, R.; Leon, L.; Santos, C. |
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Title |
Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agricultural Water Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Water Manage. |
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Volume |
204 |
Issue |
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Pages |
247-261 |
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Keywords |
Irrigation requirements; Yield; Irrigation water productivity; Olive; Climate change; Olea-Europaea L.; Different Irrigation Regimes; Water Deficits; Iberian; Peninsula; CO2 Concentration; Potential Growth; Atmospheric CO2; Southern Spain; Change Impacts; River-Basin |
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Abstract |
AdaptaOlive is a simplified physically-based model that has been developed to assess the behavior of olive under future climate conditions in Andalusia, southern Spain. The integration of different approaches based on experimental data from previous studies, combined with weather data from 11 climate models, is aimed at overcoming the high degree of uncertainty in the simulation of the response of agricultural systems under predicted climate conditions. The AdaptaOlive model was applied in a representative olive orchard in the Baeza area, one of the main producer zone in Spain, with the cultivar ‘Picual’. Simulations for the end of the 21st century showed olive oil yield increases of 7.1 and 28.9% under rainfed and full irrigated conditions, respectively, while irrigation requirements decreased between 0.5 and 6.2% for full irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation, respectively. These effects were caused by the positive impact of the increase in atmospheric CO2 that counterbalanced the negative impacts of the reduction in rainfall. The high degree of uncertainty associated with climate projections translated into a high range of yield and irrigation requirement projections, confirming the need for an ensemble of climate models in climate change impact assessment. The AdaptaOlive model also was applied for evaluating adaptation strategies related to cultivars, irrigation strategies and locations. The best performance was registered for cultivars with early flowering dates and regulated deficit irrigation. Thus, in the Baeza area full irrigation requirements were reduced by 12% and the yield in rainfed conditions increased by 7% compared with late flowering cultivars. Similarly, regulated deficit irrigation requirements and yield were reduced by 46% and 18%, respectively, compared with full irrigation. The results confirm the promise offered by these strategies as adaptation measures for managing an olive crop under semi-arid conditions in a changing climate. |
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2018-06-28 |
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0378-3774 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5204 |
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Author |
Lorite, I.J.; García-Vila, M.; Santos, C.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Fereres, E. |
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Title |
AquaData and AquaGIS: Two computer utilities for temporal and spatial simulations of water-limited yield with AquaCrop |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture |
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Volume |
96 |
Issue |
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Pages |
227-237 |
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Keywords |
software tool; aquacrop; crop simulation model; geographic information system; spatial aggregation; fao crop model; irrigation management; iberian peninsula; southern spain; climate models; impacts; program; europe; system |
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Abstract |
The crop simulation model AquaCrop, recently developed by FAO can be used for a wide range of purposes. However, in its present form, its use over large areas or for applications that require a large number of simulations runs (e.g., long-term analysis), is not practical without developing software to facilitate such applications. Two tools for managing the inputs and outputs of AquaCrop, named AquaData and AquaGIS, have been developed for this purpose and are presented here. Both software utilities have been programmed in Delphi v. 5 and in addition, AquaGIS requires the Geographic Information System (GIS) programming tool MapObjects. These utilities allow the efficient management of input and output files, along with a GIS module to develop spatial analysis and effect spatial visualization of the results, facilitating knowledge dissemination. A sample of application of the utilities is given here, as an AquaCrop simulation analysis of impact of climate change on wheat yield in Southern Spain, which requires extensive input data preparation and output processing. The use of AquaCrop without the two utilities would have required approximately 1000 h of work, while the utilization of AquaData and AquaGIS reduced that time by more than 99%. Furthermore, the use of GIS, made it possible to perform a spatial analysis of the results, thus providing a new option to extend the use of the AquaCrop model to scales requiring spatial and temporal analyses. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
0168-1699 |
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CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4609 |
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Author |
Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Webber, H.; Otegui, M.E.; Slafer, G.A.; Ordonez, R.A.; Gaiser, T.; Lorite, I.J.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Modelling the impact of heat stress on maize yield formation |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
198 |
Issue |
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Pages |
226-237 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Maize; Zea mays (L); Crop models; HIGH-TEMPERATURE STRESS; KERNEL NUMBER; CROP GROWTH; GRAIN-YIELD; SIMULATION; CLIMATE; HYBRIDS; SET; VALIDATION; COMPONENTS |
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Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are expected to increase with climate change. Higher temperatures near anthesis have a large negative effect on maize (Zea mays, L.) grain yield. While crop growth models are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on maize and other crops, it is only recently that they have accounted for such heat stress effects, despite limited field data availability for model evaluation. There is also increasing awareness but limited testing of the importance of canopy temperature as compared to air temperature for heat stress impact simulations. In this study, four independent irrigated field trials with controlled heating imposed using polyethylene shelters were used to develop and evaluate a heat stress response function in the crop modeling framework SIMPLACE, in which the Lintul5 crop model was combined with a canopy temperature model. A dataset from Argentina with the temperate hybrid Nidera AX 842 MG (RM 119) was used to develop a yield reduction function based on accumulated hourly stress thermal time above a critical temperature of 34 degrees C. A second dataset from Spain with a FAO 700 cultivar was used to evaluate the model with daily weather inputs in two sets of simulations. The first was used to calibrate SIMPLACE for conditions with no heat stress, and the second was used to evaluate SIMPLACE under conditions of heat stress using the reduction factor obtained with the Argentine dataset. Both sets of simulations were conducted twice; with the heat stress function alternatively driven with air and simulated canopy temperature. Grain yield simulated under heat stress conditions improved when canopy temperature was used instead of air temperature (RMSE equal to 175 and 309 g m(-2), respectively). For the irrigated and high radiative conditions, raising the critical threshold temperature for heat stress to 39 degrees C improved yield simulation using air temperature (RMSE: 221 gm(-2)) without the need to simulate canopy temperature (RMSE: 175 gm(-2)). However, this approach of adjusting thresholds is only likely to work in environments where climatic variables and the level of soil water deficit are constant, such as irrigated conditions and are not appropriate for rainfed production conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-11-17 |
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0378-4290, 1872-6852 |
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ft_macsur, CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4880 |
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Author |
Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Tao, F.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Effects of climate and historical adaptation measures on barley yield trends in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
221-236 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; climate; crop simulation modelling; plant breeding; spring barley; yield gap; crop production; spring barley; quantitative-evaluation; european conditions; cereal cultivars; growing-season; use efficiency; field crops; wheat; northern |
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Abstract |
In this study, the WOFOST crop simulation model was used together with comprehensive empirical databases on barley Hordeum vulgare L. to study the contributions of different yield-determining and -limiting factors to observed trends of barley yield in Finland from 1988 to 2008. Simulations were performed at 3 study sites representing different agro-ecological zones, and compared with the data from experimental sites and that reported by local farmers. Yield gaps between simulated potential yields and farmers’ yields and their trends were assessed. Positive observed yield trends of Finnish barley mostly resulted from the development and usage of new, high-yielding cultivars. Simulated trends in climatic potential and water-limited potential yields of individual cultivars showed a slight declining trend. Yield gaps showed an increasing trend in 2 out of 3 study areas. Since the mid-1990s, a major reason for this has been the lack of market and policy incentives favouring crop management decisions, i.e. annual fertilisation, soil maintenance, drainage and crop rotation decisions, aiming for higher yields. The study indicates potential options for increasing or maintaining barley yields in the future. The breeding of new climate-resilient cultivars is the primary option. However, this needs to work alongside overall adjustments to farm management and must be supported by financial incentives for farmers to increase yields. |
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0936-577x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4700 |
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