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Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. |
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Title |
Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Indicators |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Indicators |
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Volume |
48 |
Issue  |
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Pages |
505-517 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model |
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Abstract |
Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1470-160x |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4561 |
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Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Hakala, K.; Himanen, S.J.; Jauhiainen, L.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
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25 |
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186-193 |
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Keywords |
generic approach; climate change; food security; agrifood systems; cultivars; adaptive capacity; climate-change; functional diversity; plant-communities; genetic diversity; biodiversity; ecosystems; management; redundancy; evenness; weather |
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Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socioeconomic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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0959-3780 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4525 |
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Sieber, S.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Jansson, T.; Müller, K.; Tscherning, K.; Graef, F.; Pohle, D.; Helming, K.; Rudloff, B.; Saravia-Matus, B.S.; Gomez y Paloma, S. |
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Title |
Sustainability impact assessment using integrated meta-modelling: Simulating the reduction of direct support under the EU common agricultural policy (CAP) |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
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33 |
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235-245 |
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Keywords |
SIAT; CAP; sustainability; impact assessment; land use change; trade off analysis; model; Netherlands; systems |
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Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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0264-8377 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4479 |
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Author |
Dáder, B.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Moreno, A.; Winters, A.; Fereres, A. |
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Title |
Impact of UV-A radiation on the performance of aphids and whiteflies and on the leaf chemistry of their host plants |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Photochem. Photobiol. B |
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138 |
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307-316 |
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Keywords |
Amino Acids/analysis; Animals; Aphids/*radiation effects; Capsicum/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Carbohydrates/analysis; Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid; Female; Fertility/radiation effects; Hemiptera/*radiation effects; Mass Spectrometry; Phenols/analysis/chemistry; Plant Leaves/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Plants/parasitology/*radiation effects; Proteins/analysis; Solanum melongena/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Time Factors; *Ultraviolet Rays; Eggplant; Insect pests; Pepper; Plant-insect interactions; UV-blocking covers |
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Ultraviolet (UV) radiation directly regulates a multitude of herbivore life processes, in addition to indirectly affecting insect success via changes in plant chemistry and morphogenesis. Here we looked at plant and insect (aphid and whitefly) exposure to supplemental UV-A radiation in the glasshouse environment and investigated effects on insect population growth. Glasshouse grown peppers and eggplants were grown from seed inside cages covered by novel plastic filters, one transparent and the other opaque to UV-A radiation. At a 10-true leaf stage for peppers (53 days) and 4-true leaf stage for eggplants (34 days), plants were harvested for chemical analysis and infested by aphids and whiteflies, respectively. Clip-cages were used to introduce and monitor the insect fitness and populations of the pests studied. Insect pre-reproductive period, fecundity, fertility and intrinsic rate of natural increase were assessed. Crop growth was monitored weekly for 7 and 12 weeks throughout the crop cycle of peppers and eggplants, respectively. At the end of the insect fitness experiment, plants were harvested (68 days and 18-true leaf stage for peppers, and 104 days and 12-true leaf stage for eggplants) and leaves analysed for secondary metabolites, soluble carbohydrates, amino acids, total proteins and photosynthetic pigments. Our results demonstrate for the first time, that UV-A modulates plant chemistry with implications for insect pests. Both plant species responded directly to UV-A by producing shorter stems but this effect was only significant in pepper whilst UV-A did not affect the leaf area of either species. Importantly, in pepper, the UV-A treated plants contained higher contents of secondary metabolites, leaf soluble carbohydrates, free amino acids and total content of protein. Such changes in tissue chemistry may have indirectly promoted aphid performance. For eggplants, chlorophylls a and b, and carotenoid levels decreased with supplemental UV-A over the entire crop cycle but UV-A exposure did not affect leaf secondary metabolites. However, exposure to supplemental UV-A had a detrimental effect on whitefly development, fecundity and fertility presumably not mediated by plant cues as compounds implied in pest nutrition – proteins and sugars – were unaltered. |
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1011-1344 |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4517 |
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Author |
Cortignani, R.; Dono, G. |
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Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Sci. Pol. |
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81 |
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26-35 |
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Keywords |
Agricultural policy; Climate change; Bio-economic model; Integrated Assessment; Temperature-Humidity Index; Adaptation Pathways; Maximum-Entropy; Model; Cap; Uncertainty; Irrigation; Management; Scenarios; Systems |
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Abstract |
The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration. |
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2018-03-02 |
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1462-9011 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5193 |
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