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Faye, B.; Webber, H.; Naab, J.B.; MacCarthy, D.S.; Adam, M.; Ewert, F.; Lamers, J.P.A.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Ruane, A.; Gessner, U.; Hoogenboom, G.; Boote, K.; Shelia, V.; Saeed, F.; Wisser, D.; Hadir, S.; Laux, P.; Gaiser, T. |
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Title |
Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
13 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
034014 |
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Keywords |
1.5 degrees C; West Africa; food security; climate change; DSSAT; SIMPLACE; Climate-Change Impacts; Sub-Saharan Africa; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Canopy Temperature; Paris Agreement; Pearl-Millet; Maize Yield; Crop; Yields; Model; MACSUR or FACCE acknowledged. |
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Abstract |
To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 degrees C versus 2.0 degrees C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 degrees C compared to 1.5 degrees C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5196 |
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Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
12 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
054023 |
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Keywords |
heat stress; climate change impact assessment; irrigation; canopy temperature; CANOPY TEMPERATURE; WINTER-WHEAT; WATER-STRESS; CROP YIELDS; GROWTH; MAIZE; DROUGHT; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY |
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Abstract |
Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation. |
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2017-06-22 |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5035 |
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Webber, H.; Ewert, F.; Kimball, B.A.; Siebert, S.; White, J.W.; Wall, G.W.; Ottman, M.J.; Trawally, D.N.A.; Gaiser, T. |
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Title |
Simulating canopy temperature for modelling heat stress in cereals |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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77 |
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143-155 |
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canopy temperature; heat stress; cereals; crop models; profile relationships; crop production; climate-change; spring wheat; field plots; growth; maize; water; yields; variability |
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Crop models must be improved to account for the effects of heat stress events on crop yields. To date, most approaches in crop models use air temperature to define heat stress intensity as the cumulative sum of thermal times (TT) above a high temperature threshold during a sensitive period for yield formation. However, observational evidence indicates that crop canopy temperature better explains yield reductions associated with high temperature events than air temperature does. This study presents a canopy level energy balance using Monin ObukhovSimilarity Theory (MOST) with simplifications about the canopy resistance that render it suitable for application in crop models and other models of the plant environment. The model is evaluated for a uniform irrigated wheat canopy in Arizona and rainfed maize in Burkina Faso. No single variable regression relationships for key explanatory variables were found that were consistent across sowing dates to explain the deviation of canopy temperature from air temperature. Finally, thermal times determined with simulated canopy temperatures were able to reproduce thermal times calculated with observed canopy temperature, whereas those determined with air temperatures were not. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4730 |
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Webber, H.; Ewert, F.; Olesen, J.E.; Müller, C.; Fronzek, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Bourgault, M.; Martre, P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Finger, R.; Fodor, N.; Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Gaiser, T.; Jabloun, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Lizaso, J.I.; Lorite, I.J.; Manceau, L.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Siebert, S.; Stella, T.; Stratonovitch, P.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D. |
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Title |
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
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Volume |
9 |
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Pages |
4249 |
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Keywords |
Climate-Change Impacts; Air CO2 Enrichment; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Nitrogen Dynamics; Semiarid Environments; Canopy Temperature; Simulation-Model; Crop Production; Elevated CO2 |
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Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years. |
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2018-10-25 |
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2041-1723 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5211 |
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Webber, H.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Kimball, B.; White, J.; Ottman, M.; Wall, G.W.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Grant, R.; Kassie, B.; Maiorano, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Ripoche, D.; Rezaei, E.E.; Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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202 |
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21-35 |
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Crop model comparison; Canopy temperature; Heat stress; Wheat |
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Even brief periods of high temperatures occurring around flowering and during grain filling can severely reduce grain yield in cereals. Recently, ecophysiological and crop models have begun to represent such phenomena. Most models use air temperature (Tair) in their heat stress responses despite evidence that crop canopy temperature (Tc) better explains grain yield losses. Tc can deviate significantly from Tair based on climatic factors and the crop water status. The broad objective of this study was to evaluate whether simulation of Tc improves the ability of crop models to simulate heat stress impacts on wheat under irrigated conditions. Nine process-based models, each using one of three broad approaches (empirical, EMP; energy balance assuming neutral atmospheric stability, EBN; and energy balance correcting for the atmospheric stability conditions, EBSC) to simulate Tc, simulated grain yield under a range of temperature conditions. The models varied widely in their ability to reproduce the measured Tc with the commonly used EBN models performing much worse than either EMP or EBSC. Use of Tc to account for heat stress effects did improve simulations compared to using only Tair to a relatively minor extent, but the models that additionally use Tc on various other processes as well did not have better yield simulations. Models that simulated yield well under heat stress had varying skill in simulating Tc. For example, the EBN models had very poor simulations of Tc but performed very well in simulating grain yield. These results highlight the need to more systematically understand and model heat stress events in wheat. |
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2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4824 |
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