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Author (up) Lehtonen, H.S.; Irz, X.
Title Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Agriculture and Food Science Abbreviated Journal Agriculture and Food Science
Volume 22 Issue 3 Pages 356-370
Keywords agricultural sector modelling; food demand; greenhouse gas mitigation; agricultural policy; agricultural economics
Abstract This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1795-1895 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4607
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Author (up) Mitter, H.; Heumesser, C.; Schmid, E.
Title Spatial modeling of robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Land Use Policy Abbreviated Journal Land Use Policy
Volume 46 Issue Pages 75-90
Keywords climate change impact; adaptation; agricultural vulnerability; portfolio optimization; agricultural policy; agri-environmental payment; adaptive capacity; change impacts; risk-aversion; land-use; ecosystem services; change scenarios; europe; policy; future; water
Abstract Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is likely to vary considerably between agro-environmental regions. Exemplified on Austrian cropland, we aim at (i) quantifying climate change impacts on agricultural vulnerability which is approximated by the indicators crop yields and gross margins, (ii) developing robust crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on the choice of crop production portfolios. We have employed a spatially explicit, integrated framework to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation. It combines a statistical climate change model for Austria and the period 2010-2040, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), and a portfolio optimization model. We find that under climate change, crop production portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop management practices, increasing average crop yields by 2-15% and expected gross margins by 3-18%, respectively. The results depend on the choice of adaptation measures and on the level of risk aversion and vary by region. In the semi-arid eastern parts of Austria, average dry matter crop yields are lower but gross margins are higher than in western Austria due to bio-physical and agronomic heterogeneities. An abolishment of decoupled farm payments and a threefold increase in agri-environmental premiums would reduce nitrogen inputs by 23-33%, but also crop yields and gross margins by 18-37%, on average. From a policy perspective, a twofold increase in agri-environmental premiums could effectively reduce the trade-offs between crop production and environmental impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0264-8377 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4675
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Author (up) Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F.
Title Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.
Volume 65 Issue Pages 205-220
Keywords Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use
Abstract Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0936-577x ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5012
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