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Author Van Oijen, M.
Title Methods for risk analysis and spatial upscaling of process-based models: Experiences from projects Carbo-Extreme and GREENHOUSE Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-69
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Abstract In the recently finished EU-funded project Carbo-Extreme, we developed a simple probabilistic method for quantifying vulnerabilities and risks to ecosystems (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015032). The method defines risk as expected loss due to environmental hazards, and shows how such risk can be calculated as the product of ecosystem vulnerability and hazard probability. The method was used with six different vegetation models to estimate current and future drought risks for crops, grasslands and forests across Europe (http://www.biogeosciences.net/11/6357/2014/bg-11-6357-2014.html).In the still ongoing UK-funded project GREENHOUSE, the focus is on spatial upscaling of local measurements and model predictions of greenhouse gas emissions to wider regions. As part of this work, we are comparing different model upscaling methods – ranging from naive input aggregation to geostatistics – and quantify the uncertainties associated with the upscaling. This work builds on an earlier inventory of model upscaling methods that was produced in a collaboration of CEH-Edinburgh and the University of Bonn (https://www.stat.aau.at/Tagungen/statgis/2009/StatGIS2009Van%20Oijen1.pdf). Here we show a comparison of the methods using model predictions for the border region of England and Scotland. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2184
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Author Virkajärvi, P.; Korhonen, P.; Bellocchi, G.; Curnel, Y.; Wu, L.; Jégo, G.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Van Oijen, M.; Gustavsson, A.-M.; Kipling, R.P.
Title Modelling responses of forages to climate change with a focus on nutritive value Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences
Volume 7 Issue 03 Pages 227-228
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ISSN 2040-4700 ISBN Medium
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Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4876
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Author Van Oijen, M.; Cameron, D.; Levy, P.E.; Preston, R.
Title Correcting errors from spatial upscaling of nonlinear greenhouse gas flux models Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Environmental Modelling & Software Abbreviated Journal Environmental Modelling & Software
Volume 94 Issue Pages 157-165
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ISSN 1364-8152 ISBN Medium article
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Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4945
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Author Kipling, R.P.; Bannink, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Dalgaard, T.; Fox, N.J.; Hutchings, N.J.; Kjeldsen, C.; Lacetera, N.; Sinabell, F.; Topp, C.F.E.; van Oijen, M.; Virkajärvi, P.; Scollan, N.D.
Title Modelling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change Type Report
Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 10 Issue Pages L1.1-D1
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Abstract Ruminant production systems are important producers of food, support rural communities and culture, and help to maintain a range of ecosystem services including the sequestering of carbon in grassland soils. However, these systems also contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while intensi- fication of production has driven biodiversity and nutrient loss, and soil degradation. Modeling can offer insights into the complexity underlying the relationships between climate change, management and policy choices, food production, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. This paper 1) provides an overview of how ruminant systems modeling supports the efforts of stakeholders and policymakers to predict, mitigate and adapt to climate change and 2) provides ideas for enhancing modeling to fulfil this role. Many grassland models can predict plant growth, yield and GHG emissions from mono-specific swards, but modeling multi-species swards, grassland quality and the impact of management changes requires further development. Current livestock models provide a good basis for predicting animal production; linking these with models of animal health and disease is a prior- ity. Farm-scale modeling provides tools for policymakers to predict the emissions of GHG and other pollutants from livestock farms, and to support the management decisions of farmers from environmental and economic standpoints. Other models focus on how policy and associated management changes affect a range of economic and environmental variables at regional, national and European scales. Models at larger scales generally utilise more empirical approaches than those applied at animal, field and farm-scales and include assumptions which may not be valid under climate change conditions. It is therefore important to continue to develop more realistic representations of processes in regional and global models, using the understanding gained from finer-scale modeling. An iterative process of model development, in which lessons learnt from mechanistic models are ap- plied to develop ‘smart’ empirical modeling, may overcome the trade-off between complexity and usability. De- veloping the modeling capacity to tackle the complex challenges related to climate change, is reliant on closer links between modelers and experimental researchers, and also requires knowledge-sharing and increasing technical compatibility across modeling disciplines. Stakeholder engagement throughout the process of model development and application is vital for the creation of relevant models, and important in reducing problems re- lated to the interpretation of modeling outcomes. Enabling modeling to meet the demands of policymakers and other stakeholders under climate change will require collaboration within adequately-resourced, long-term inter-disciplinary research networks
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Notes LiveM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4947
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Author Korhonen, P.; Palosuo, T.; Höglind, M.; Persson, T.; van Oijen, M.; Jego, G.; Virkajärvi, P.; Belanger, G.; Gustavsson, A.M.
Title Intercomparison of models for simulating timothy yield in Northern countries. The multiple roles of grassland in the European bioeconomy Type Conference Article
Year 2016 Publication Abbreviated Journal
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Publisher Place of Publication Trondheim, Norway Editor
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Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title General Meeting of the European Grassland Federation
Series Volume 26 Series Issue Edition
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Area Expedition Conference General Meeting of the European Grassland Federation, 2016-09-04 to 2016-09-08, Trondheim, Norway 26:
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Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5168
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