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Author Van Oijen, M.; Höglind, M.
Title Toward a Bayesian procedure for using process-based models in plant breeding, with application to ideotype design Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Euphytica Abbreviated Journal Euphytica
Volume 207 Issue 3 Pages 627-643
Keywords BASGRA; cold tolerance; genotype-environment interaction; plant breeding; process-based modelling; yield stability; grassland productivity; timothy regrowth; climate-change; water-deficit; forest models; late blight; leaf-area; calibration; growth; tolerance
Abstract Process-based grassland models (PBMs) simulate growth and development of vegetation over time. The models tend to have a large number of parameters that represent properties of the plants. To simulate different cultivars of the same species, different parameter values are required. Parameter differences may be interpreted as genetic variation for plant traits. Despite this natural connection between PBMs and plant genetics, there are only few examples of successful use of PBMs in plant breeding. Here we present a new procedure by which PBMs can help design ideotypes, i.e. virtual cultivars that optimally combine properties of existing cultivars. Ideotypes constitute selection targets for breeding. The procedure consists of four steps: (1) Bayesian calibration of model parameters using data from cultivar trials, (2) Estimating genetic variation for parameters from the combination of cultivar-specific calibrated parameter distributions, (3) Identifying parameter combinations that meet breeding objectives, (4) Translating model results to practice, i.e. interpreting parameters in terms of practical selection criteria. We show an application of the procedure to timothy (Phleum pratense L.) as grown in different regions of Norway.
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author (up) Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0014-2336 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4820
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Author Höglind, M.; Van Oijen, M.; Cameron, D.; Persson, T.
Title Process-based simulation of growth and overwintering of grassland using the BASGRA model Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Ecological Modelling Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Model.
Volume 335 Issue Pages 1-15
Keywords Cold hardening; Frost injury; Phleum pratense L.; Process-based; modelling; Winter survival; Yield; low-temperature tolerance; perennial forage crops; dry-matter; production; climate-change; nutritive-value; snow-cover; bayesian; calibration; timothy regrowth; phleum-pratense; lolium-perenne
Abstract Process-based models (PBM) for simulation of weather dependent grass growth can assist farmers and plant breeders in addressing the challenges of climate change by simulating alternative roads of adaptation. They can also provide management decision support under current conditions. A drawback of existing grass models is that they do not take into account the effect of winter stresses, limiting their use for full-year simulations in areas where winter survival is a key factor for yield security. Here, we present a novel full-year PBM for grassland named BASGRA. It was developed by combining the LINGRA grassland model (Van Oijen et al., 2005a) with models for cold hardening and soil physical winter processes. We present the model and show how it was parameterized for timothy (Phleum pratense L.), the most important forage grass in Scandinavia and parts of North America and Asia. Uniquely, BASGRA simulates the processes taking place in the sward during the transition from summer to winter, including growth cessation and gradual cold hardening, and functions for simulating plant injury due to low temperatures, snow and ice affecting regrowth in spring. For the calibration, we used detailed data from five different locations in Norway, covering a wide range of agroclimatic regions, day lengths (latitudes from 59 degrees to 70 degrees N) and soil conditions. The total dataset included 11 variables, notably above-ground dry matter, leaf area index, tiller density, content of C reserves, and frost tolerance. All data were used in the calibration. When BASGRA was run with the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) parameter vector from the single, Bayesian calibration, nearly all measured variables were simulated to an overall normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) <0.5. For many site x experiment combinations, NRMSE was <0.3. The temporal dynamics were captured well for most variables, as evaluated by comparing simulated time courses versus data for the individual sites. The results may suggest that BASGRA is a reasonably robust model, allowing for simulation of growth and several important underlying processes with acceptable accuracy for a range of agroclimatic conditions. However, the robustness of the model needs to be tested further using independent data from a wide range of growing conditions. Finally we show an example of application of the model, comparing overwintering risks in two climatically different sites, and discuss future model applications. Further development work should include improved simulation of the dynamics of C reserves, and validation of winter tiller dynamics against independent data. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Address 2016-07-28
Corporate Author (up) Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0304-3800 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4764
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Author Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Smith, P.; Hoffmann, H.; van Oijen, M.; Zhao, G.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Coucheney, E.; Lewan, E.; Eckersten, H.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Nendel, C.; Grosz, B.; Dechow, R.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Klatt, S.; Teixeira, E.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Weihermüller, L.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F.
Title Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling Type Conference Article
Year 2016 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM;
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author (up) Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Vienna (Austria) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
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ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, 2016-04-17 to 2016-04-22, Vienna
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2578
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Author Höglind, M.; Persson, T.; van Oijen, M.
Title Breeding forage grasses: simulation modelling as a tool to identify important cultivar characteristics for winter survival and yield under future climate conditions in Norway Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2487
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Author Höglind, M.; Persson, T.; van Oijen, M.
Title Breeding forage grasses: simulation modelling as a tool to identify important cultivar characteristics for winter survival and yield under future climate conditions in Norway Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author (up) Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference Conference on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture in a Changing Climate, Lillehammer, Norway., 2014-01-27 to 2014-01-29
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2488
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