| Records |
| Author |
Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
| Title |
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
PLoS One |
Abbreviated Journal |
PLoS One |
| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
e0139201 |
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| Abstract |
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. |
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1932-6203 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial  |
4997 |
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| Author |
Hutchings, N.; Weindl, I.; Topp, C.F.E.; Snow, V.O.; Rotz, A.; Raynal, H.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Martin, R.; Holzworth, D.P.; Graux, A.-I.; Faverdin, P.; Del Prado, A.; Eckard, R.; Bannink, A. |
| Title |
Does collaborative farm-scale modelling address current challenges and future opportunities |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
L1.4-D2 |
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| Abstract |
Resources required increasing, resources available decreasing Farm-scale modellers will need to make strategic decisions Single-owner models May continue with additional resources Risk of ‘succession’ problem Community modelling is an alternative Need to continue building a community of farm modellers |
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LiveM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4978 |
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Topp, K.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; Del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.; Lauwers, L.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sándor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Weindl, I.; Kipling, R.P. |
| Title |
Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
L2.3.2-D |
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Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication. |
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LiveM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4959 |
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Özkan, Ş.; Vitali, A.; Lacetera, N.; Amon, B.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; de Haas, Y.; Dufrasne, I.; Elliott, J.; Eory, V.; Fox, N.J.; Garnsworthy, P.C.; Gengler, N.; Hammami, H.; Kyriazakis, I.; Leclère, D.; Lessire, F.; Macleod, M.; Robinson, T.P.; Ruete, A.; Sandars, D.L.; Shrestha, S.; Stott, A.W.; Twardy, S.; Vanrobays, M.L.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Weindl, I.; Wheelhouse, N.; Williams, A.G.; Williams, H.W.; Wilson, A.J.; Østergaard, S.; Kipling, R.P. |
| Title |
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. |
| Volume |
151 |
Issue |
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Pages |
130-144 |
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| Abstract |
Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. |
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0013-9351 |
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LiveM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4766 |
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| Author |
Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S. |
| Title |
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
094021 |
| Keywords |
livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon |
| Abstract |
Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
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English |
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1748-9326 |
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| Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4718 |
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