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Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; Weindl, I. |
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Title |
Grazing effects on grassland productivity – Linking livestock production to grass yields |
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2014 |
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Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2752 |
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Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Heinke, J.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Environmental impacts of grassland management and livestock production |
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2014 |
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The potential of grasslands to sequester carbon and provide feed for livestock production depends on the one hand on climatic conditions but secondly on management and grazing pressure. Using a global vegetation model considering different management and grazing options, effects of livestock density on primary productivity can be assessed. It is expected that low animal densities enhance productivity whereas increasing grazing pressure may deteriorate grass plants. Thus, the optimal animal density depend on the specific primary production of the pasture and optimal grazing intensity. Using these optimal grass yields, the impacts of livestock production on resource use is assessed by applying the global land use model MAgPIE. This model integrates a detailed representation of the livestock sector and integrates socio-economic regional information with spatially explicit biophysical data. With scenario analysis we analyze the impact of livestock production on future deforestation and land use. Our results indicate that the reduction of animal derived calory demand has a huge potential to spare land for nature and reduce deforestation. On the supply side, feeding efficiency gains can help to decrease demand for land and overall biomass requirements. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5078 |
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Topp, K.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; Del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.; Lauwers, L.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sándor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Weindl, I.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L2.3.2-D |
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Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication. |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4959 |
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Hutchings, N.; Weindl, I.; Topp, C.F.E.; Snow, V.O.; Rotz, A.; Raynal, H.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Martin, R.; Holzworth, D.P.; Graux, A.-I.; Faverdin, P.; Del Prado, A.; Eckard, R.; Bannink, A. |
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Does collaborative farm-scale modelling address current challenges and future opportunities |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L1.4-D2 |
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Resources required increasing, resources available decreasing Farm-scale modellers will need to make strategic decisions Single-owner models May continue with additional resources Risk of ‘succession’ problem Community modelling is an alternative Need to continue building a community of farm modellers |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4978 |
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Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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PLoS One |
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PLoS One |
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10 |
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11 |
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e0139201 |
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Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. |
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1932-6203 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4997 |
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