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Author Rötter, P.; Palosuo, T.; Semenov, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, K.; Bindi, M.; Carter, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Höhn, J.; Kersebaum, C.; Trnka, M. openurl 
  Title Designing new cereal cultivars as an adaptation measure using crop model ensembles Type Conference Article
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords CropM  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue (up) Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2768  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. doi  openurl
  Title Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of the Royal Society Interface Abbreviated Journal J. R. Soc. Interface  
  Volume 12 Issue 112 Pages 20150721  
  Keywords climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat  
  Abstract Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue (up) Edition  
  ISSN 1742-5689 1742-5662 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4819  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Angulo, C.; Bindi, M.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Ruget, F.; Takác, J.; Trnka, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Field Crops Research Abbreviated Journal Field Crops Research  
  Volume 133 Issue Pages 23-36  
  Keywords climate; crop growth simulation; model comparison; spring barley; yield variability; uncertainty; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; high-temperature; soil-moisture; elevated co2; ceres-wheat; data set; growth; drought; sensitivity  
  Abstract In this study, the performance of nine widely used and accessible crop growth simulation models (APES-ACE, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT-CERES, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) was compared during 44 growing seasons of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) at seven sites in Northern and Central Europe. The aims of this model comparison were to examine how different process-based crop models perform at multiple sites across Europe when applied with minimal information for model calibration of spring barley at field scale, whether individual models perform better than the multi-model mean, and what the uncertainty ranges are in simulated grain yields. The reasons for differences among the models and how results for barley compare to winter wheat are discussed. Regarding yield estimation, best performing based on the root mean square error (RMSE) were models HERMES, MONICA and WOFOST with lowest values of 1124, 1282 and 1325 (kg ha(-1)), respectively. Applying the index of agreement (IA), models WOFOST, DAISY and HERMES scored best having highest values (0.632, 0.631 and 0.585, respectively). Most models systematically underestimated yields, whereby CROPSYST showed the highest deviation as indicated by the mean bias error (MBE) (-1159 kg ha(-1)). While the wide range of simulated yields across all sites and years shows the high uncertainties in model estimates with only restricted calibration, mean predictions from the nine models agreed well with observations. Results of this paper also show that models that were more accurate in predicting phenology were not necessarily the ones better estimating grain yields. Total above-ground biomass estimates often did not follow the patterns of grain yield estimates and, thus, harvest indices were also different. Estimates of soil moisture dynamics varied greatly. In comparison, even though the growing cycle for winter wheat is several months longer than for spring barley, using RMSE and IA as indicators, models performed slightly, but not significantly, better in predicting wheat yields. Errors in reproducing crop phenology were similar, which in conjunction with the shorter growth cycle of barley has higher effects on accuracy in yield prediction. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue (up) Edition  
  ISSN 0378-4290 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4803  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Nendel, C.; Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Asseng, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Banse, M.; Tiffin, R.; Brouwer, F.; Sinabell, F.; Scollan, N.; Meijs, J.; Angulo, C.; Antle, J.M.; Baigorria, G.; Basso, B.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Gaiser, T.; Janssen, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nelson, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Porter, C.H.; Porter, J.R.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Stewart, D.; Thorburn, P.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Verhagen, J.; Wallach, D.; Winter, J.M. url  openurl
  Title Addressing challenges and uncertainties for, the use of agro-ecosystem models to, assess climate change impact and food security across scales Type Conference Article
  Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords CropM  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue (up) Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference Climate Change and Regional Responses Conference, Dresden, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-27  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2679  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, M.; Semenov, M.A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security INTRODUCTION Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.  
  Volume 65 Issue Pages 3-5  
  Keywords Crop production; Climate change impact and adaptation assessments; Upscaling; Model ensembles  
  Abstract Process-based crop models that synthesise the latest scientific understanding of biophysical processes are currently the primary scientific tools available to assess potential impacts of climate change on crop production. Important obstacles are still present, however, and must be overcome for improving crop modelling application in integrated assessments of risk, of sustainability and of crop-production resilience in the face of climate change (e.g. uncertainty analysis, model integration, etc.). The research networks MACSUR and AGMIP organised the CropM International Symposium and Workshop in Oslo, on 10-12 February 2014, and present this CR Special, discussing the state-of-the-art-as well as future perspectives-of crop modelling applications in climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue (up) Edition  
  ISSN 0936-577x ISBN Medium Editorial Material  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4785  
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