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Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Žalud, Z.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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Volume |
4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages  |
637-643 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; increase; models; variability; responses; extremes; impacts; shifts |
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Abstract |
Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies. |
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English |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4545 |
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Kersebaum, K.; Kroes, J.; Gobin, A.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Dalla Marta, A.; Luo, Q.; Eitzinger, J.; Mirschel, W.; Weigel, H.-J.; Manderscheid, R.; Hoffmann, M.; Nejedlik, P.; Iqbal, M.; Hösch, J. |
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Title |
Assessing uncertainties of water footprints using an ensemble of crop growth models on winter wheat |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Water |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
571 |
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Abstract |
Crop productivity and water consumption form the basis to calculate the water footprint (WF) of a specific crop. Under current climate conditions, calculated evapotranspiration is related to observed crop yields to calculate WF. The assessment of WF under future climate conditions requires the simulation of crop yields adding further uncertainty. To assess the uncertainty of model based assessments of WF, an ensemble of crop models was applied to data from five field experiments across Europe. Only limited data were provided for a rough calibration, which corresponds to a typical situation for regional assessments, where data availability is limited. Up to eight models were applied for wheat. The coefficient of variation for the simulated actual evapotranspiration between models was in the range of 13%–19%, which was higher than the inter-annual variability. Simulated yields showed a higher variability between models in the range of 17%–39%. Models responded differently to elevated CO2 in a FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) experiment, especially regarding the reduction of water consumption. The variability of calculated WF between models was in the range of 15%–49%. Yield predictions contributed more to this variance than the estimation of water consumption. Transpiration accounts on average for 51%–68% of the total actual evapotranspiration. |
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2073-4441 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4987 |
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Cammarano, D.; Rötter, P.; Ewert, F.; Palosuo, T.; Bindi, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Angulo, C.; Gaiser, T.; Nendel, C.; Martre, P.; de Wit, A. |
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Title |
Challenges for Agro-Ecosystem Modelling in Climate Change Risk Assessment for major European Crops and Farming systems |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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555-564 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2765 |
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Kersebaum, K.C.; Boote, K.J.; Jorgenson, J.S.; Nendel, C.; Bindi, M.; Frühauf, C.; Gaiser, T.; Hoogenboom, G.; Kollas, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Thorburn, P.J.; Trnka, M.; Wegehenkel, M. |
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Title |
Analysis and classification of data sets for calibration and validation of agro-ecosystem models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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72 |
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402-417 |
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Keywords |
field experiments; data quality; crop modelling; data requirement; minimum data; software; different climatic zones; soil-moisture sensors; spatial variability; nitrogen dynamics; crop models; systems simulation; wheat yields; elevated co2; growth; field |
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Experimental field data are used at different levels of complexity to calibrate, validate and improve agroecosystem models to enhance their reliability for regional impact assessment. A methodological framework and software are presented to evaluate and classify data sets into four classes regarding their suitability for different modelling purposes. Weighting of inputs and variables for testing was set from the aspect of crop modelling. The software allows users to adjust weights according to their specific requirements. Background information is given for the variables with respect to their relevance for modelling and possible uncertainties. Examples are given for data sets of the different classes. The framework helps to assemble high quality data bases, to select data from data bases according to modellers requirements and gives guidelines to experimentalists for experimental design and decide on the most effective measurements to improve the usefulness of their data for modelling, statistical analysis and data assimilation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4563 |
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Author |
Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
264 |
Issue |
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Pages |
351-362 |
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Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections |
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Abstract |
unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures. |
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2019-01-07 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5214 |
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