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Author  |
van Bussel, L.G.J.; Ewert, F.; Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; Enders, A.; Wallach, D.; Asseng, S.; Baigorria, G.A.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Constantin, J.; Elliott, J.; Glotter, M.; Heinlein, F.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klein, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Raynal, H.; Romero, C.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Specka, X.; Tao, F. |
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Title |
Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
220 |
Issue |
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Pages |
101-115 |
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Keywords |
Regional crop simulations; Winter wheat; Upscaling; Stratified sampling; Yield estimates; climate-change scenarios; water availability; growth simulation; potential impact; food-production; winter-wheat; model; resolution; systems; soil |
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Abstract |
Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50,100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed. |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4673 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Shi, W.; Xiao, D.; Liu, Y.; Wang, M.; Liu, F.; Zhang, H. |
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Title |
Historical data provide new insights into response and adaptation of maize production systems to climate change/variability in China |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
185 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-11 |
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Keywords |
china; climate variability; grain yield; impact; maize; northeast china; tropical maize; wheat yields; heat-stress; crop yields; temperature; impacts; sensitivities; hybrids; trends |
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Abstract |
Extensive studies had been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on maize growth and yield in recent decades; however, the dynamics of crop husbandry in response and adaptation to climate change were not taken into account. Based on field observations spanning from 1981 to 2009 at 167 agricultural meteorological stations across China, we found that solar radiation and temperature over the observed maize growth period had decreasing trends during 1981-2009, and maize yields were positively correlated with these climate variables in major production regions. The decreasing trends in solar radiation and temperature during maize growth period were mainly ascribed to the adoption of late maturity cultivars with longer reproductive growth period (RGP). The adoption of late maturing cultivars with longer RGP contributed substantially to grain yield increase during the last three decades. The climate trends during maize growth period varied among different production areas. During 1981-2009, decreases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation over maize growth period jointly reduced yield most by 13.2-17.3% in southwestern China, by contrast in northwestern China increases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation jointly increased yield most by 12.9-14.4%. Our findings highlight that the adaptations of maize production system to climate change through shifts of sowing date and genotypes are underway and should be taken into accounted when evaluating climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4816 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
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16 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
1715-1723 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation; Climate change; Climate extremes; Drought; Impacts and vulnerability |
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Abstract |
We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China. |
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2016-06-20 |
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1436-3798 1436-378x |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4757 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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71 |
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44-52 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; crop production; cultivars; extreme climate; impacts; phenology; high-temperature stress; climate-change; winter-wheat; spring wheat; crop yields; day length; trends; variability; senescence; phenology |
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Abstract |
Heat stress impacts on crop growth and yield have been investigated by controlled-environment experiments, however little is known about the impacts under field conditions at large spatial and temporal scales, particularly in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. Here, using detailed experiment Observations at 34 national agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China, we investigated the changes in climate and heat stress during wheat reproductive growing period (from heading to maturity) and the impacts of climate change and heat stress on reproductive growing duration (RGD) and yield in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. We found that RGD and growing degree days above 0 degrees C (GDD) from heading to maturity increased, which increased yield by similar to 14.85%, although heat stress had negative impacts on RGD and yield. During 1981-2009, high temperature (>34 degrees C) degree days (HDD) increased in the northern part, however decreased in the middle and southern parts of HHHP due to advances in heading and maturity dates. Change in HDD, together with increase in GDD and decrease in solar radiation (SRD), jointly increased wheat yield in the northern and middle parts but reduced it in the southern part of HHHP. During the study period, increase in GDD and decrease in SRD had larger impacts on yield than change in HDD. However, with climate warming of 2 degrees C, damage of heat stress on yield may offset a large portion of the benefits from increases in RGD and GDD, and eventually result in net negative impacts on yield in the northern part of HHHP. Our study showed that shifts in cultivars and wheat production system dynamics in the past three decades reduced heat stress impacts in the HHHP. The insights into crop response and adaptation to climate change and climate extremes provide excellent evidences and basis for improving climate change impact study and designing adaptation measures for the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-06-01 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4743 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z. |
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Title |
Climate Change, High-Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity, and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Superensemble-Based Probabilistic Projection |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. |
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52 |
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3 |
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531-551 |
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1558-8424 |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4928 |
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