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Author |
Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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205-220 |
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Keywords |
Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use |
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Abstract |
Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%. |
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0936-577x |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5012 |
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Mitter, H.; Techen, A.-K.; Sinabell, F.; Helming, K.; Kok, K.; Priess, J.A.; Schmid, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Holman, I.; Lehtonen, H.; Leip, A.; Le Mouel, C.; Mathijs, E.; Mehdi, B.; Michetti, M.; Mittenzwei, K.; Mora, O.; Oygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, R.; Schoenhart, M. |
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Title |
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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252 |
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Pages |
Unsp 109701 |
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Keywords |
EUR-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change; land-use change; global environmental-change; climate-change; scenario; development; transdisciplinary research; sustainability science; integrated-assessment; future; adaptation; framework |
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Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS. |
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2020-02-14 |
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English |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5222 |
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Author |
Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of policy and climate change impacts: A case study on protein crop production in Austria |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-20 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2210 |
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Author |
Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Climate change and policy impacts on protein crop production: a case study on integrated modeling |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-64 |
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This paper addresses protein crop production in Europe. European food and feed industries highly depend on imported protein crops and derived products and climate change is likely to affect domestic protein crop production and thus the import dependency. The recent reform of EU agricultural policy reform aims at promoting climate friendly agricultural practices and stimulating the production of protein crops. We choose three contrasting climate change scenarios as well as specifications of the recent CAP reform in order to investigate how farmers might adapt to changing land use restrictions and climate conditions. Output response, land allocation and nitrogen use are the main variables of interest. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we apply an integrated modeling framework consisting of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. This model maximizes total gross margins by optimizing for land use and crop management practices for different scenarios of climate change and market conditions. Results obtained at a 1 km grid are aggregated to the national level. The model results indicate that changes in policy conditions, cropland use, and flexibility in crop management practices may have stronger effects on total protein crop production than climate change in the next decades. An expansion of current protein crop production leads to an increase in marginal opportunity costs, reduces mineral fertilizer input demand, and mainly replaces maize in the crop rotations. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2179 |
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Author |
Schönhart, M.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Integrated analysis of climate change adaptation and rural development in an Austrian case study, region |
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2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM Workshop on Global Food Security Challenges – European Research approaches. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany, 2013-11-18 to 2013-11-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2807 |
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