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Author Semenov, M.A.; Mitchell, R.A.C.; Whitmore, A.P.; Hawkesford, M.J.; Parry, M.A.J.; Shewry, P.R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change  
  Volume 2 Issue 6 Pages 380-382  
  Keywords winter-wheat; elevated CO2; temperature; growth  
  Abstract Predictions of a 40–140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title (up)  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Commentary  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4504  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. doi  openurl
  Title Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Food and Energy Security Abbreviated Journal Food Energy Secur.  
  Volume 2 Issue 3 Pages 185-196  
  Keywords Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat  
  Abstract Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title (up)  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2048-3694 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4505  
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Author Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  
  Volume 170 Issue Pages 103-113  
  Keywords climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature  
  Abstract Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title (up)  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4492  
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Author Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Theoretical and Applied Climatology Abbreviated Journal Theor. Appl. Climatol.  
  Volume 113 Issue 3-4 Pages 445-455  
  Keywords stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves  
  Abstract We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title (up)  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0177-798x 1434-4483 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4484  
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Author Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Pasqui, M.; Primicerio, J.; Toscano, P.; Semenov, M.; Bindi, M. url  openurl
  Title Within-season predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin Type Conference Article
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Crop yield is the result of the interactions between weather in the incoming season and how farmers decide to manage and protect their crops. According to Jones et al. (2000), uncertainties in the weather of the forthcoming season leads farmers to lose some productivity by taking management decisions based on their own experience of the climate or by adopting conservative strategies aimed at reducing the risks. Accordingly, predicting crop yield in advance, in response to different managements, environments and weathers would assist farm-management decisions(Lawless and Semenov, 2005). Following the approach described by Semenov and Doblas-Reyes (2007), this study aimed at assessing the utility of different seasonal forecasting methodologies in predicting durum wheat yield at 10 different sites across the Mediterranean Basin. The crop model, SiriusQuality (Martre et al., 2006), was used to compute wheat yield over a 10-years period. First, the model was run with a set of observed weather data to calculate the reference yield distributions. Then, starting from 1st January, yield predictions were produced at a monthly time-step using seasonal forecasts. The results were compared with the reference yields to assess the efficacy of the forecasting methodologies to estimate within-season yields. The results indicate that  durum wheat phenology and yield can be accurately predicted under Mediterranean conditions well before crop maturity, although some differences between the sites and the forecasting methodologies were revealed. Useful information can be thus provided for helping farmers to reduce negative impacts or take advantage from favorable conditions.  
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  Language Summary Language Original Title (up)  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference  
  Series Volume 3(S) Sassari, Italy Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5142  
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