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Author (up) Ahammad, H.; Heyhoe, E.; Nelson, G.; Sands, R.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Blanc, E.; Havlik, P.; Valin, H.; Kyle, P.; d’Croz, D.M.; Meijl, H.V.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Tabeau, A.
Title The Role of International Trade under a Changing Climate: Insights from global economic modelling Type Book Chapter
Year 2015 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages 293-312
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Rome Editor Elbehri, A.
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Climate Change and Food Systems Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5001
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Author (up) Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.
Title Global valuation of agricultural, virtual blue water trade measured on a local scale Type Conference Article
Year 2012 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
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Area Expedition Conference Conference paper presented at the 10th Annual meeting of the International Water Resource Economics Consortium, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012-08-27 to 2012-08-28
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2323
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Author (up) Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P.
Title Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Ecological Economics Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Econ.
Volume 101 Issue Pages 43-53
Keywords virtual water; blue and green water; water scarcity; agricultural trade; global vegetation model; virtual water; crop trade; resources; scarcity; food; footprints; products; flows; green
Abstract International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0921-8009 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4512
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Author (up) Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Schmitz, C.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Humpenöder, F.; Biewald, A.; Stevanovic, M.
Title Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Nature Communications Abbreviated Journal Nat. Comm.
Volume 5 Issue Pages 3858
Keywords Animals; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*supply & distribution; Environmental Pollution/*prevention & control; *Food Supply; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen Fixation; *Population Growth; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*supply & distribution
Abstract Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2041-1723 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4513
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Author (up) Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C.
Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249
Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration
Abstract Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4789
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