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Author Sandars, D.
Title Optimal Land-use Future Scenarios Nordic Area Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 4 Issue Pages SP4-14
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Area Expedition Conference (down) TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2204
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Author Sandars, D.
Title Understanding Europe’s future ability to feed itself within an uncertain climate change and socio economic scenario space Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-54
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Abstract Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (yields and land suitability) and demand which are affected by future climate and socio-economic change (arising from changing food demand; prices; technology change etc).  Land use under 2050 climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be rapidly and systematically quantified with a modelling system that has been developed from meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015). Profitability of each possible land use is modelled for every soil in every grid across the EU. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds set for intensive agriculture extensive agriculture, managed forest and finally unmanaged forest or unmanaged land.  The European demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available.   The model iterates until demand is satisfied (or cannot be met at any price).  Results are presented as contour plots of key variables. For example, given a 40% increase in population from the baseline socio-economic scenario, adapting by increasing crop yields by 40% will leave a 38% probability that the 2050 future climate will be such that we cannot feed ourselves – considering “all” the possible climate scenarios. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference (down) MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2169
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Author Sandars, D.; Audsley, E.; Holman, I.
Title Predicting the optimum land use at any location for any future scenario (CLIMSAVE/IMPRESSIONS) Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
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Abstract Given any socio-, techno-, economic scenario and location specific soil and climate scenario, the farm model predicts the most profitable land use at that location.  This model is encapsulated within a Europe-wide interactive interface, to allow adaptation and mitigation options to be explored by any user.  With 5 climate models and 19 parameters, the user can study the sensitivity of the results to the chosen scenario settings.  A scenario’s land use can be classified as intensive arable, intensive grassland, extensive grassland, forestry, or abandoned depending on potential profitability.
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Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference
Series Volume 3(S) Sassari, Italy Series Issue Edition
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Area Expedition Conference (down) FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5113
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Author Del Prado, A.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Chadwick, D.; Misselbrook, T.; Sandars, D.L.; Audsley, E.; Mosquera-Losada, M.R.
Title Synergies between mitigation and adaption to climate change in grassland-based farming systems Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords LiveM
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Area Expedition Conference (down) 25th EGF General Meeting on “EGF at 50: The Future of European Grasslands”. - Grassland Science in Europe 19. Aberystwyth, Wales : EGF, 2014 - p. 61 - 74., 2014-09-07 to 2014-09-11
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2386
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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D.
Title Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.
Volume 151 Issue Pages 126-135
Keywords Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture
Abstract The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
Address 2017-02-23
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Area Expedition Conference (down)
Notes LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4937
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