| Records |
| Author |
Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C. |
| Title |
Global valuation of agricultural, virtual blue water trade measured on a local scale |
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2012 |
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Conference paper presented at the 10th Annual meeting of the International Water Resource Economics Consortium, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012-08-27 to 2012-08-28 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2323 |
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Rolinski, S.; Sætnan, E. |
| Title |
Uncertainties in climate change prediction and modelling |
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Report |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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D-L1.5 |
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As models become increasingly complex and integrated, uncertainty among model parameters, variables and processes become critical for evaluating model outcomes and predictions. A framework for understanding uncertainty in climate modelling has been developed by the IPCC and EEA which provides a framework for discussion of uncertainty in models in general. Here we report on a review of this framework along with the results of a survey of sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland models. Along with the identification of key sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland modelling, the survey highlighted the need for a development of a common typology for uncertainty. When collaborating across traditionally separate research fields, or when communicating with stakeholders, differences in understanding, interpretation or emphasis can cause confusion. Further work in MACSUR should focus on improving model intercomparison methods to better understand model uncertainties, and improve availability of high quality datasets which can reduce model uncertainties. No Label |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2259 |
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Waha, K.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S. |
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Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global and Planetary Change |
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106 |
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1-12 |
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climate change; wet season; water stress; temperature stress; hierarchical cluster analysis; global vegetation model; climate-change; southern africa; east-africa; part i; food; heat; agriculture; variability; impacts |
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Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the most important food crops and very common in all parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010 53 million tons of maize were produced in sub-Saharan Africa on about one third of the total harvested cropland area (similar to 33 million ha). Our aim is to identify the limiting agroclimatic variable for maize growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the separated and combined effects of temperature and precipitation. Under changing climate, both climate variables are projected to change severely, and their impacts on crop yields are frequently assessed using process-based crop models. However it is often unclear which agroclimatic variable will have the strongest influence on crop growth and development under climate change and previous studies disagree over this question. We create synthetic climate data in order to study the effect of large changes in the length of the wet season and the amount of precipitation during the wet season both separately and in combination with changes in temperature. The dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL is used to simulate maize yields under current and future climatic conditions for the two 10-year periods 2056-2065 and 2081-2090 for three climate scenarios for the A1b emission scenario but without considering the beneficial CO2 fertilization effect. The importance of temperature and precipitation effects on maize yields varies spatially and we identify four groups of crop yield changes: regions with strong negative effects resulting from climate change (<-33% yield change), regions with moderate (-33% to -10% yield change) or slight negative effects (-10% to +6% yield change), and regions with positive effects arising from climate change mainly in currently temperature-limited high altitudes (>+6% yield change). In the first three groups temperature increases lead to maize yield reductions of 3 to 20%, with the exception of mountainous and thus cooler regions in South and East Africa. A reduction of the wet season precipitation causes decreases in maize yield of at least 30% and prevails over the effect of increased temperatures in southern parts of Mozambique and Zambia, the Sahel and parts of eastern Africa in the two projection periods. This knowledge about the limiting abiotic stress factor in each region will help to prioritize future research needs in modeling of agricultural systems as well as in drought and heat stress breeding programs and to identify adaption options in agricultural development projects. On the other hand the study enhances the understanding of temperature and water stress effects on crop yields in a global vegetation model in order to identify future research and model development needs. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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0921-8181 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4508 |
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Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; Weindl, I. |
| Title |
Grazing effects on grassland productivity – Linking livestock production to grass yields |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2752 |
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Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; I., W. |
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Modelling the effects of grassland management on the carbon cycle |
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2014 |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2014, 2014-04-28 to 2014-05-02 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2753 |
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