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Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D. and; Nelson, G.C.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Bodirsky; Benjamin; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; and Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Mason-D’Croz, D.; Paltsev; Sergey; Rolinski, S.; Tabeau, A.; van Meijl, H. and; von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D. |
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Title |
The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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45 |
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1 |
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51-67 |
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Keywords |
world food demand; socioeconomic pathways; climate change; computable general equilibrium; partial equilibrium; systems |
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Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9\% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller. |
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0169-5150 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4752 |
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Kriegler, E.; Bauer, N.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Leimbach, M.; Strefler, J.; Baumstark, L.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Hilaire, J.; Klein, D.; Mouratiadou, I.; Weindl, I.; Bertram, C.; Dietrich, J.-P.; Luderer, G.; Pehl, M.; Pietzcker, R.; Piontek, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Bonsch, M.; Giannousakis, A.; Kreidenweis, U.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S.; Schultes, A.; Schwanitz, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Calvin, K.; Emmerling, J.; Fujimori, S.; Edenhofer, O. |
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Title |
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
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42 |
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297-315 |
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Shared Socio-economic Pathway; SSP5; Emission scenario; Energy transformation; Land-use change; Integrated assessment modeling |
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Highlights • The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. • The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). • An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. • In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. • The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis. Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. |
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0959-3780 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5005 |
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Schauberger, B.; Rolinski, S.; Müller, C. |
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A network-based approach for semi-quantitative knowledge mining and its application to yield variability |
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2016 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
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Environ. Res. Lett. |
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11 |
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12 |
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123001 |
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Keywords |
yield variability; crop models; interaction network; plant process; wheat; maize; rice; Global Food Security; Climate-Change; Crop Production; Stress Tolerance; Wheat Yields; Heat-Stress; Temperature Variability; Environmental-Factors; United-States; Elevated CO2 |
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Variability of crop yields is detrimental for food security. Under climate change its amplitude is likely to increase, thus it is essential to understand the underlying causes and mechanisms. Crop models are the primary tool to project future changes in crop yields under climate change. Asystematic overview of drivers and mechanisms of crop yield variability (YV) can thus inform crop model development and facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on crop yields. Yet there is a vast body of literature on crop physiology and YV, which makes a prioritization of mechanisms for implementation in models challenging. Therefore this paper takes on a novel approach to systematically mine and organize existing knowledge from the literature. The aim is to identify important mechanisms lacking in models, which can help to set priorities in model improvement. We structure knowledge from the literature in a semi-quantitative network. This network consists of complex interactions between growing conditions, plant physiology and crop yield. We utilize the resulting network structure to assign relative importance to causes of YV and related plant physiological processes. As expected, our findings confirm existing knowledge, in particular on the dominant role of temperature and precipitation, but also highlight other important drivers of YV. More importantly, our method allows for identifying the relevant physiological processes that transmit variability in growing conditions to variability in yield. We can identify explicit targets for the improvement of crop models. The network can additionally guide model development by outlining complex interactions between processes and by easily retrieving quantitative information for each of the 350 interactions. We show the validity of our network method as a structured, consistent and scalable dictionary of literature. The method can easily be applied to many other research fields. |
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2017-04-07 |
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1748-9326 |
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Review |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4942 |
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Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S. |
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Title |
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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10 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
094021 |
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Keywords |
livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon |
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Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4718 |
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Topp, K.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; Del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.; Lauwers, L.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sándor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Weindl, I.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L2.3.2-D |
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Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication. |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4959 |
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