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Dalgaard, T.; Kjeldsen, C.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Özkan, S.; Rolinski, S.; Köchy, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Brouwer, F.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Kipling, R. |
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Farming systems models for regional scale impact assessment in Europe – case studies of N-losses and greenhouse gas emissions |
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2014 |
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Scaling in global, regional and farm models, 2014-09-24 to 2014-09-24 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2380 |
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Kriegler, E.; Bauer, N.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Leimbach, M.; Strefler, J.; Baumstark, L.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Hilaire, J.; Klein, D.; Mouratiadou, I.; Weindl, I.; Bertram, C.; Dietrich, J.-P.; Luderer, G.; Pehl, M.; Pietzcker, R.; Piontek, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Bonsch, M.; Giannousakis, A.; Kreidenweis, U.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S.; Schultes, A.; Schwanitz, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Calvin, K.; Emmerling, J.; Fujimori, S.; Edenhofer, O. |
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Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century |
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2017 |
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Global Environmental Change |
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Glob. Environ. Change |
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42 |
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297-315 |
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Shared Socio-economic Pathway; SSP5; Emission scenario; Energy transformation; Land-use change; Integrated assessment modeling |
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Highlights • The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. • The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). • An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. • In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. • The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis. Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. |
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0959-3780 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5005 |
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Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century |
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2015 |
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PLoS One |
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PLoS One |
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10 |
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11 |
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e0139201 |
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Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. |
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1932-6203 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4997 |
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Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C. |
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Global valuation of agricultural, virtual blue water trade measured on a local scale |
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2012 |
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Conference paper presented at the 10th Annual meeting of the International Water Resource Economics Consortium, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012-08-27 to 2012-08-28 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2323 |
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Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; Weindl, I. |
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Title |
Grazing effects on grassland productivity – Linking livestock production to grass yields |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2752 |
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