| Records |
| Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
Issue |
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Pages |
287-303 |
| Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
| Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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English |
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Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
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| Author |
Lai, R.; Seddaiu, G.; Gennaro, L.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Effects of nitrogen fertilizer sources and temperature on soil CO2 efflux in Italian ryegrass crop under Mediterranean conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
7 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
27 |
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| Abstract |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
2039-6805 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4478 |
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| Author |
Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
| Volume |
117 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
1-12 |
| Keywords |
changed climate variability; dsp; epic; adaptation; water management; irrigation; simulating impacts; co2 concentration; crop production; productivity; maize; yield; growth; model; photosynthesis; agriculture |
| Abstract |
Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes. The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0308521x |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4489 |
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| Author |
Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Manage. |
| Volume |
27 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
3607-3622 |
| Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis |
| Abstract |
Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0920-4741 |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4487 |
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| Author |
Allan, C.; Nguyen, T.P.L.; Seddaiu, G.; Wilson, B.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Integrating local knowledge with experimental research: case studies on managing cropping systems in Italy and Australia |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
15 |
| Keywords |
participatory action research; agronomic research; local knowledge; knowledge integration |
| Abstract |
The sustainable development of agricultural systems is currently challenged by many complex agro-environmental issues. These are characterized by an incomplete understanding of the situation and the problems that arise, and the conflicting opinions that result, issues over boundaries that are often difficult to define, and controversy over the multiple goals and uncertain outcomes. Added to these characteristics, we also have the slow and often inadequate uptake and implementation of research outcomes in this complex, real world. In order to improve sustainability of agro-ecosystems, agronomic research must move away from the linear research approaches and extension practices adopted so far that have focused purely on biophysical agro-ecosystems. The theoretical operational space of agronomic research must be transformed by considering agronomic issues as part of a broader social-agro-ecosystem. One aspect of this transformation is the inclusion of knowledge collected on a local level with the participation of farmers on the ground. The integration of local experiential knowledge with traditional agronomic research is by necessity based on the participation of many different stakeholders and there can be no single blueprint for how best to develop and use the input received. However, agronomists and policy advisors require general guidelines drawn up from actual experience in order to accelerate positive agronomic change. We address this need through a comparative analysis of two case studies; one involves multi-stakeholder research in a cropping system in the dairy district of Arborea, Sardinia, Italy. The central question was: How can high crop production be maintained while also achieving the EU target water quality and minimizing the production costs? The second case is a multi-stakeholder soil health project from south-eastern Australia. Here the central question was: How can soil decline be prevented and reversed in this district, and soils made more resilient to future challenges? The Social Learning for the Integrated Management and sustainable use of water (SLIM) framework, a useful heuristic tool for exploring the dynamics of transformational change, guided the analysis of the case studies. Within this framework, a key indicator of success is the emergence of new knowledge from the creation of new spaces for learning between researchers and local stakeholders. The Italian case study appears to have been the most successful in this sense, as opportunities for joint exploration of research data allowed new potential farming responses to the central question to emerge. The multi-stakeholder processes in the Australian case focused more on providing public openings for individual learning, and missed the opportunity for new knowledge to emerge through joint exploration. We conclude that participatory approaches may enable transformative practice through knowledge integration, but that this process is not an automatic outcome of increased community participation. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
2039-6805 1125-4718 |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4482 |
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