| Records |
| Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
Issue |
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Pages |
287-303 |
| Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
| Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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English |
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1364-8152 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
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| Author |
Grosz, B.; Dechow, R.; Gebbert, S.; Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Wallach, D.; Coucheney, E.; Lewan, E.; Eckersten, H.; Specka, X.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Nendel, C.; Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Haas, E.; Teixeira, E.; Bindi, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Doro, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Tao, F.; Roetter, R.; Kassie, B.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Weihermueller, L.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
The implication of input data aggregation on up-scaling soil organic carbon changes |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
96 |
Issue |
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Pages |
361-377 |
| Keywords |
Biogeochemical model; Data aggregation; Up-scaling error; Soil organic carbon; DIFFERENT SPATIAL SCALES; NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS; MODELING SYSTEM; DATA; RESOLUTION; CROP MODELS; CLIMATE; LONG; PRODUCTIVITY; CROPLANDS; DAYCENT |
| Abstract |
In up-scaling studies, model input data aggregation is a common method to cope with deficient data availability and limit the computational effort. We analyzed model errors due to soil data aggregation for modeled SOC trends. For a region in North West Germany, gridded soil data of spatial resolutions between 1 km and 100 km has been derived by majority selection. This data was used to simulate changes in SOC for a period of 30 years by 7 biogeochemical models. Soil data aggregation strongly affected modeled SOC trends. Prediction errors of simulated SOC changes decreased with increasing spatial resolution of model output. Output data aggregation only marginally reduced differences of model outputs between models indicating that errors caused by deficient model structure are likely to persist even if requirements on the spatial resolution of model outputs are low. (C)2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2017-09-14 |
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English |
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1364-8152 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5176 |
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| Author |
Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Asseng, S.; Bindi, M.; Biernath, C.; Constantin, J.; Coucheney, E.; Dechow, R.; Doro, L.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Heinlein, F.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klein, C.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Raynal, H.; Roggero, P.P.; Rötter, R.P.; Siebert, S.; Specka, X.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D.; Weihermüller, L.; Yeluripati, J.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
PLoS One |
Abbreviated Journal |
PLoS One |
| Volume |
11 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
e0151782 |
| Keywords |
systems simulation; nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; crop models; data resolution; scale; water; variability; calibration; weather |
| Abstract |
We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. |
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English |
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1932-6203 |
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Article |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4725 |
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| Author |
Lai, R.; Seddaiu, G.; Gennaro, L.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Effects of nitrogen fertilizer sources and temperature on soil CO2 efflux in Italian ryegrass crop under Mediterranean conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
7 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
27 |
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2039-6805 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4478 |
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| Author |
Allan, C.; Nguyen, T.P.L.; Seddaiu, G.; Wilson, B.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Integrating local knowledge with experimental research: case studies on managing cropping systems in Italy and Australia |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
15 |
| Keywords |
participatory action research; agronomic research; local knowledge; knowledge integration |
| Abstract |
The sustainable development of agricultural systems is currently challenged by many complex agro-environmental issues. These are characterized by an incomplete understanding of the situation and the problems that arise, and the conflicting opinions that result, issues over boundaries that are often difficult to define, and controversy over the multiple goals and uncertain outcomes. Added to these characteristics, we also have the slow and often inadequate uptake and implementation of research outcomes in this complex, real world. In order to improve sustainability of agro-ecosystems, agronomic research must move away from the linear research approaches and extension practices adopted so far that have focused purely on biophysical agro-ecosystems. The theoretical operational space of agronomic research must be transformed by considering agronomic issues as part of a broader social-agro-ecosystem. One aspect of this transformation is the inclusion of knowledge collected on a local level with the participation of farmers on the ground. The integration of local experiential knowledge with traditional agronomic research is by necessity based on the participation of many different stakeholders and there can be no single blueprint for how best to develop and use the input received. However, agronomists and policy advisors require general guidelines drawn up from actual experience in order to accelerate positive agronomic change. We address this need through a comparative analysis of two case studies; one involves multi-stakeholder research in a cropping system in the dairy district of Arborea, Sardinia, Italy. The central question was: How can high crop production be maintained while also achieving the EU target water quality and minimizing the production costs? The second case is a multi-stakeholder soil health project from south-eastern Australia. Here the central question was: How can soil decline be prevented and reversed in this district, and soils made more resilient to future challenges? The Social Learning for the Integrated Management and sustainable use of water (SLIM) framework, a useful heuristic tool for exploring the dynamics of transformational change, guided the analysis of the case studies. Within this framework, a key indicator of success is the emergence of new knowledge from the creation of new spaces for learning between researchers and local stakeholders. The Italian case study appears to have been the most successful in this sense, as opportunities for joint exploration of research data allowed new potential farming responses to the central question to emerge. The multi-stakeholder processes in the Australian case focused more on providing public openings for individual learning, and missed the opportunity for new knowledge to emerge through joint exploration. We conclude that participatory approaches may enable transformative practice through knowledge integration, but that this process is not an automatic outcome of increased community participation. |
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2039-6805 1125-4718 |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4482 |
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