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Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M.-F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczaki, J.; Lorite, I.J.; Minet, J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Mueller, C.; Nendel, C.; Ozturk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rotter, R.P. |
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Title |
Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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Volume |
159 |
Issue |
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Pages |
209-224 |
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Keywords |
Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemble; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Climate-Change; Crop Models; Probabilistic Assessment; Simulating; Impacts; British Catchments; Uncertainty; Europe; Productivity; Calibration; Adaptation |
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Abstract |
Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities. |
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2018-01-25 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0308-521x |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5186 |
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Author |
Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Balek, J.; Olesen, J.E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gobin, A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Takac, J.; Ruget, F.; Ferrise, R.; Bezak, P.; Capellades, G.; Dibari, C.; Makinen, H.; Nendel, C.; Ventrella, D.; Rodriguez, A.; Bindi, M.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Decline in climate resilience of European wheat |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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Volume |
116 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
123-128 |
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Keywords |
wheat; cultivar; Europe; climate resilience; response diversity; Diversity; Weather; Growth; Shifts; Crops; Yield; Variability |
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Abstract |
Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation. |
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2019-01-17 |
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ISSN |
0027-8424 |
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Article |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5226 |
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Author |
Lizaso, J.I.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Oliveira, J.A.; Lorite, I.J.; Rodriguez, A.; Maddonni, G.A.; Otegui, M.E. |
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Title |
Modeling the response of maize phenology, kernel set, and yield components to heat stress and heat shock with CSM-IXIM |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
214 |
Issue |
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Pages |
239-252 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress, Maize; CSM-IXIM; CSM-CERES-maize; Beta function; CERES-MAIZE; DEVELOPMENTAL PROCESSES; TEMPERATURE RESPONSES; CROSS-VALIDATION; GRAIN-SORGHUM; GROWTH; SIMULATION; PLANTS; SENESCENCE; NITROGEN |
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Abstract |
The available evidence suggests that the current increasing trend in global surface temperatures will continue during this century, which will be accompanied by a greater frequency of extreme events. The IPCC has projected that higher temperatures may outscore the known optimal and maximum temperatures for maize. The purpose of this study was to improve the ability of the maize model CSM-IXIM to simulate crop development, growth, and yield under hot conditions, especially with regards to the impact of above-optimal temperatures around anthesis. Field and greenhouse experiments that were performed over three years (2014-2016) using the same short-season hybrid, PR37N01 (FAO 300), provided the data for this work. Maize was sown at a target population density of 5 plants M-2 on two sowing dates in 2014 and 2015 and on one in 2016 at three locations in Spain (northern, central, and southern Spain) with a well-defined thermal gradient. The same hybrid was also sown in two greenhouse chambers with daytime target temperatures of approximately 25 and above 35 degrees C. During the nighttime, the temperature in both chambers was allowed to equilibrate with the outside temperature. The greenhouse treatments consisted of moving 18 plants at selected phenological stages (V4, V9, anthesis, lag phase, early grain filling) from the cool chamber to the hot chamber over a week and then returning the plants back to the cool chamber. An additional control treatment remained in the cool chamber all season, and in 2015 and 2016, one treatment remained permanently in the hot chamber. Two maize models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) V4.6 were compared, namely CERES and IXIM. The HUM version included additional components that were previously developed to improve the crop N simulation and to incorporate the anthesis-silking interval (ASI). A new thermal time calculation, a heat stress index, the impact of pollen-sterilizing temperatures, and the explicit simulation of male and female flowering as affected by the daily heat conditions were added to IXIM. The phenology simulation in field experiments by IXIM improved substantially. The RMSE for silking and maturity in CERES were 7.9 and 13.7 days, decreasing in DCIM to 2.8 and 7.3 days, respectively. Similarly, the estimated kernel numbers, kernel weight, grain yield and final biomass were always closer to the measurements in HUM than in CERES. The worst simulations were for kernel weight, and for that reason, the differences in grain yield between the models were small (the RMSE in CERES was 1219 kg ha(-1) vs. 1082 kg ha(-1) in IXIM). The greenhouse results also supported the improved estimations of crop development by IXIM (RMSE of 2.6 days) relative to CERES (7.4 days). The impact of the heat treatments on grain yield was consistently overestimated by CERES, while HUM captured the general trend. The new HUM model improved the CERES simulations when elevated temperatures were included in the evaluation data. Additional model testing with measurements from a wider latitudinal range and relevant heat conditions are required. |
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2017-11-24 |
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0378-4290 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5180 |
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Author |
Lizaso, J.I.; Ruiz-Rarnos, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Oliveira, J.A.; Lorite, I.J.; Sanchez, D.; Garcia, E.; Rodriguez, A. |
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Title |
Impact of high temperatures in maize: Phenology and yield components |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
129-140 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Maize; Kernel number; Anthesis, Beta function; Vapor-Pressure Deficit; Heat-Stress; Transpiration Response; Pollen; Viability; Leaf Appearance; Climate-Change; Kernel Number; Grain-Yield; Growth; Plants |
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Abstract |
Heat stress is a main threat to current and future global maize production. Adaptation of maize to future warmer conditions requires improving our understanding of crop responses to elevated temperatures. For this purpose, the same short-season (FAO 300) maize hybrid PR37N01 was grown over three years of field experiments on three contrasting Spanish locations in terms of temperature regime. The information complemented three years of greenhouse experiments with the same hybrid, applying heat treatments at various critical moments of the crop cycle. Crop phenology, growth, grain yield, and yield components were monitored. An optimized beta function improved the calculation of thermal time compared to the linear-cutoff estimator with base and optimum temperatures of 8 and 34 degrees C, respectively. Our results showed that warmer temperatures accelerate development rate resulting in shorter vegetative and reproductive phases (ca. 30 days for the whole cycle). Heat stress did not cause silking delay in relation to anthesis (extended anthesis-silking interval), at least in the range of temperatures (maximum temperature up to 42.9 degrees C in the field and up to 52.5 degrees C in the greenhouse) considered in this study. Our results indicated that maize grain yield is reduced under heat stress mainly via pollen viability that in turn determines kernel number, although a smaller but significant effect of the female component has been also detected. |
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2018-02-19 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5190 |
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Author |
Mäkinen, H.; Kaseva, J.; Trnka, M.; Balek, J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Gobin, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Takáč, J.; Bezák, P.; Ventrella, D.; Ruget, F.; Capellades, G.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
222 |
Issue |
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Pages |
209-217 |
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Keywords |
European wheat; Cultivar; Weather; Extreme; Climate change; Yield response; High-Temperature; Heat-Stress; Use Efficiency; Growth-Stages; Winter-Wheat; Yield; Crop; Barley; Tolerance |
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Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21 degrees to 61.34 degrees and longitudes- 6.02 degrees to 26.24 degrees) during the period 1991-2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (>= 31 degrees C, >= 35 degrees C, or drought around heading; >= 35 degrees C from heading to maturity; excessive rainfall; heavy rainfall and low global radiation) led to marked yield penalties in a selected set of European cultivars, whereas few cultivars were found to with no yield penalty in such conditions. There were no European wheat cultivars that responded positively (+ 10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (- 15 degrees C and – 20 degrees C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently, a major future breeding challenge will be to evaluate the potential of combining such cultivar properties with other properties required under different growing conditions with, for example, long day conditions at higher latitudes, when the intensity and frequency of extremes rapidly increase. |
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2018-06-05 |
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English |
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0378-4290 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5200 |
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