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Rötter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Development of methods for the probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on crop production |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-C4.4.1 |
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Various attempts have been made to determine the relative importance of uncertainties in climate change impact assessments stemming from climate projections and crop models, respectively, and to analyse yield outputs probabilistically. For example, in the ENSEMBLES project, probabilistic climate projections (Harris et al. 2010) have been applied in conjunction with impact response surfaces (IRS), constructed by using impact models, to estimate the future likelihood (risk) of exceeding critical thresholds of crop yield impact (see, Fronzek et al., 2011, for an explanation of the method). In this task, we aimed to further develop and operationalize these methods and testing them in different case study regions in Europe. The method combines results of a sensitivity analysis of (one or more) impact model(s) with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation (Fronzek et al., 2011). Such an overlay is one way of portraying probabilistic estimates of future impacts. By further accounting for the uncertainties in crop and biophysical parameters (using perturbed parameter approaches), the outcome represents an ensemble of impact risk estimates, encapsulating both climate and crop model uncertainties. No Label |
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2233 |
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Kersebaum, C.; Nendel, C.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Documentation of temperature algorithms in the models HERMES, MONICA and WOFOST |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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AgMIP workshop “Wheat Response to High Temperature”, El Batan/Mexico., 2013-06-19 to 2013-06-21 |
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2522 |
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Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.P., T. |
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Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
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2014 |
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14th EAAE Congress, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 2014-08-26 to 2014-08-29 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2604 |
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Lana, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Yin, X.; Nendel, C.; Manevski, K.; Müller, C.; Palosuo, T.; Armas-Herrera, C.M.; Beaudoin, N.; Bindi, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Eitzinger, J.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; Cortazar-Atauri, I.G.D.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoffmann, M.P.; Launay, M.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Moriondo, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Öztürk, I.; Pacholski, A.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roggero, P.P.; Roncossek, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Waha, K.; Wegehenkel, M.; Weigel, H.-J.; Wu, L. |
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Effect of different levels of calibration in rotation schemes simulated in five European sites in a multi-model approach |
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2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4917 |
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Webber, H.; Kahiluoto, H.; Rötter, R.P.; Ewert, F. |
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Enhancing climate resilience of cropping systems |
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2014 |
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167-185 |
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CropM |
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CAB International |
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Wallingford |
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Fuhrer, J.; Gregory, P.J. |
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Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2897 |
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